Beans and Gas are two issues in rural Red America that did not receive enough attention in these final weeks before the midterms. The President’s awful foreign policies and his stupid trade war are seriously hurting rural America, causing deep financial pain on heartland farms and in farming communities across the midwest. Red state farmers should be asking themselves — can they afford representatives in Washington who will continue to enable the pResident to pursue the sorts of questionable trade policies that threaten to bankrupt them?
Beans then Gas —
At this time last year during a single week the grain elevator just south of Hillsboro, North Dakota filled three 110 car trainloads of soybeans, all headed to to the Pacific Northwest to meet orders from China. On July 6, in response to Trump’s tariffs on imported goods from China, China retaliated by imposing additional 25 percent tariffs on American soybeans — hundreds of millions of dollars worth of soybeans in North Dakota suddenly have no market. Those ‘Refugee Soybeans’ now lie in heaps on the ground with nowhere to go. The farmers who produced them are threatened with financial ruin.
Where will these 'Refugee' Soybeans go and at what price? Some of them may eventually make their way to China via Argentina, or Egypt or the Netherlands — in a resale sham aimed at avoiding the tariffs — but there will be added shipping costs and middle men will extract profits that should accrue to North Dakota farmers and shippers. Trump’s Midwest Beanfield War with China should be a major campaign issue in North Dakota and Nebraska and Missouri Senate races where Republican Senators have silently rubber stamped Trump policies. There are great Democratic women running in those three states and they should be shaming their opponents and promising voters they will not support Trump’s harmful and costly trade war on the backs of their farmers and farm communities.
That loss in farm income comes on top of continuously tightening farm margins. Crop prices are down 40 percent in the last five years, and farm income is down 50 percent compared to 2013.
Soybeans are Missouri’s number one cash crop, contributing $7.7 billion in total output, $3.2 billion in added value, $1.4 billion in labor income to the state’s economy, and supporting more than 20,700 jobs. China is the destination for nearly one out of every three rows of that annual soy production, and 60 percent of total U.S. exports. In 2017, China imported $13.9 billion of U.S. soybean.
I’ve not yet seen a single ad on these issues in Missouri, although it was an issue in the debate between McCaskill and Josh Hawley. Democratic candidates Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp should seize on this topic in the final week to persuade independents and moderates to switch to blue in the midterms to help elect representatives willing to put a check on the ill advised and disproportionately costly trade and foreign policy misadventures of the pResident. www.politifact.com/...
Beans
The soybean harvest is currently wrapping up across the middle of the country. my neighbors along the Missouri River were out last week working day and night to get their beans in before heavy rains and again yesterday and today before another round of rain. If fields get too muddy to harvest the beans will keep in the field for awhile, which is a good thing since there is no market for them.
Before we get too deep in the weeds with this diary — I should state for the record that although I ‘own a ‘farm’ where small eroded hillside fields first grew corn 200 years ago and where 100 years later shade tobacco for cigar wrappers was grown, we now make about 65 bales of hay. I am not a farmer anymore than I’m an economist or an expert on international trade or gasoline prices. My neighbors are farmers and I drive for 30 minutes to work each day through their Missouri River bottom fields of corn, beans and wheat, occasionally sharing the road with tractors combines and grain trucks. Rain was spotty this year, but they made a good crop. The beans appear to have done very well this year.
On July 1, 2018 China slapped an additional 25 percent duty on US soybeans in reaction to tariffs Trump imposed on imported Chinese products. The price of soybeans promptly fell by 2$/bushel. In 2017 U.S. farmers sold $14 billion worth of soybeans and soybean products to China. The Trump Trade War Tariffs have essentially killed that market — China is now buying beans from Brazil and Argentina and US farmers are scrambling to figure out what to do with their crop that was destined for export to China when it was planted. Some farmers will try to store their beans and hope for a future price that will salvage their input costs. Storage bins will be at a premium and many farmers will end up storing beans in heaps on the ground rather than sell them at a loss.
North Dakota is fourth among the states in acres of soybean plantings, behind Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota. In April about 7.1 million acres of North Dakota were planted in beans
Soybeans are a $1.5 billion crop for North Dakota. When the trade war began to escalate in June, prices dropped 25-percent, that's a $375-million loss for the state's farmers.www.kfyrtv.com/…
In Iowa the per bushel cost to grow soybeans (no till herbicide resistant varieties after corn) is between $9.20 and $9.50 per bushel — including costs of land, fuel, seed, fertilize, herbicide, machinery, crop insurance, labor etc. — www.agupdate.com/... and the cash price at the elevator after Trump’s trade war with China is now close to $2 a bushel less than that . The futures price is about 1$ less than the cost of production. When farmers planted in April — they hoped at harvest to make about .60 a bushel above their production costs. That now seems highly unlikely.
Farming is risky business, floods, hail, drought, wind, pests fungus any number of variables can shift the balance from profit to loss. The natural disasters are one thing, misguided political actions are another. Trump’s trade war with China will disproportionately hurt farmers and farm communities in rural red states where growers have bumper crops they can’t currently sell at a profit and can’t afford to store or can’t find a place to store. In many places beans will be heaped up on the ground and covered with giant tarps in the hope to salvage what doesn’t rot when and if prices improve.
www.extension.iastate.edu/...
Across the northern plains soybean farmers are struggling to find a market for their 2018 harvest. Plants that crush and mill soybeans into meal for livestock feed are limited and storage and shipping are expensive. Soybean meal is an important feed supplement for swine, poultry and in catfish aquaculture and is the most commonly used protein supplement in dairy rations. Soybean meal is also a common ingredient in cat and dog food as well. en.wikipedia.org/…
China buys about two-thirds of the world's soybean exports, using most of it to feed 700 million pigs and to make cooking oil. The soybean meal exported to China is also used to feed poultry and in fish farming. There will be a pork shortage in china if they don’t find a replacement feed supply, but the pain will be felt on this side of the Trade War first among soybean producers.
Gas
High diesel and gasoline fuel prices disproportionately hurt rural economies. In farm country everywhere is far away and everything must be hauled or delivered. There is little or no public transportation, no uber or lyft, no alternative viable alternatives to driving.
Energy analyst John Kilduff has recently predicted that crude oil prices could climb as much as 30 percent by winter, pushing gas prices into the $4-a-gallon range for many of us now paying closer to $3 (sorry folks in the far west who are already paying $4). The main reason, Kilduff said, will be the Trump’s sanctions against Iran, a major oil exporter, which will resume in early November. So Trump puffs up his chest and swings his dick at Iran and we all pay more at the pump as a million barrels of Iranian export crude struggle to find their way into the world market. This week cheaper winter fuel hit the market here in Missouri, so gas prices are down a few cents but diesel didn’t budge and the future price trend is likely up.
The Politics of Beans and Gas
Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp are in tough reelection campaigns in North Dakota and Missouri where Trump voters are in the majority. In Nebraska Jane Raybould is a longshot to unseat Republican Deb Fischer. Trump policies that are driving down the price of soybeans and driving up the price of gasoline are harming farmers and rural communities in those states and Democratic candidates should be highlighting these issues during their public appearances and in their advertising.
If farmers know anything, it’s this — when you find yourself at the bottom of a hole — the first thing you need to do is stop digging. The last thing Trump needs now is to be further enabled in his misguided sanctions against Iran and in his ill advised trade war with China. Restraint should be the watchword for Red State Republican voters in November — this time, they need to send representatives to Washington who are able and willing to rein in the worst instincts of this pResident.
This time we need Democrats to rein in the pResident — and in the farm states of North Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri and means Democratic women. The economic vitality of farm families and communities depends on it.