Tired? There’s no tired politics.
Update #2: Oh my, new poll out of Texas, Beto is only down -3%, in MOE, basically tied via Emerson Poll. I believe Cruz is having a SAD, well let’s send Cruz an Anvil or two.
Texas US Senate
MM, LV, Oct 28-30, n=781, +/-3.7%
Ted Cruz (R-Inc) 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided
Update#1: Democrats in prime position
www.washingtonpost.com/…
...Across 69 congressional districts identified by the Cook Political Report and The Post as competitive in late August, the Post-Schar School poll finds 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate, while 46 percent support the Republican.
The Democrats’ four-point edge represents a superficial advantage with Republicans, given the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. Still, the finding marks a sharp turn from 2016, when voters in these districts backed Republicans by a margin of 15 percentage points. ...
Again, a shift of +4% for Democrats in 2018, whereas in 2016 there was a +15% advantage for the Republicans, there’s your polling error Nate Silver(go to 538 to know what I’m talking about) Gaspare
Real Clear Politics has just switched Senate GOP pick-ups from 3 to 1.
And why you might ask? Well let’s take a look.
In Nevada, Rosen is now polling with a 3 point LEAD “In Nevada, just three points separate Democrat Jacky Rosen and incumbent Republican Dean Heller,” 48%-45%
In Arizona, Sinema is polling with a 4 point LEAD 51% to 47% split
www.cnn.com/...
Polls are still extremely tight in MO Hawley has not shown to open up a lead but the situation still remains tied. 45% to 45% www.realclearpolitics.com/…
In TN, Blackburn’s lead has narrowed to only 5 points, with-in the margin of error and any momentum is gone. www.nbcnews.com/…
In IN, Donnelly has opened up a 7 point lead as reported by none other than FOX news
www.foxnews.com/…
Nelson in FL is holding a steady 2 point lead 6 days out and Tester in MT holds a steady 3 point lead. Democratic turnout will determine the winner in BOTH those contests.
Update: A new poll in TX shows a very tight race inside the MOE
Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.
According to the poll, which is the first one released by the university, 47 percent of the 905 likely voters surveyed online and on the phone said they would vote for Cruz, while 43.4 percent said they would vote for O’Rourke; 5.7 percent said they were “not sure,” and 3.9 percent chose “other.”
And I think the Tenacity of Heidi Heitkemp in ND can’t be underestimated.
We vote, we win.
Over at 538, Nate’s forecast has moved his prediction slightly to the Republicans. However, I think that Nate’s forecast is missing this late break to the Democrats that is growing in the House. Thereby, it is also pushing the Senate races because I think, except in maybe a few places like AZ and TX, we are not going to see as much ticket splitting. The house races are pushing up to the Senate. But, in 6 days we’ll know. We’ll know.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...