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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● KS-02: It seems that Steve Watkins, a Republican who is locked in a competitive race for Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, has wildly exaggerated even more details about his life. Until recently, Watkins’ website had touted his heroic leadership in 2015, when his expedition to climb Mount Everest was aborted because of a devastating earthquake in Nepal. The site had quoted Everest outfitter Guy Cotter saying he'd relied on Watkins' "heroic leadership amid the chaos," but Cotter told the Associated Press that he'd never said that.
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Instead, Cotter told them that "[t]here was not really anything heroic to be able to do," adding that they "all felt quite hopeless ... because we were not there, where all the injured and dying people were, through that event. We were actually up on the mountain, so there was very little we could contribute." The Watkins campaign removed those words attributed to Cotter from their site, with the candidate insisting he had just "captured the statement, to the best of my memory."
Watkins has also boasted that he competed in the 2015 and 2018 Iditarod dogsled race in Alaska to emphasize that he was "an accomplished athlete and explorer." However, while Watkins did race both years, two of his competitors in this year's contest told the Associated Press they believed he was doing it as a publicity stunt for his congressional campaign. Four-time winner Jeff King said that Watkins’ self-portrayal as an adventurer was "a gigantic fallacy.”
Watkins was forced to drop out of Iditarod this year when he was too far behind. Musher Tara Cicatello, who was at the back of the pack with Watkins, said that his main concern with leaving the race was how it would impact the publicity for his congressional campaign. She adds that he left his dogs with racers that were already overwhelmed with other dogs, saying that, "People were irritated with Steve because they were doing more work for his dogs than he was."
The AP report also cast some doubt on Watkins' ties to Kansas, a state he left after high school and only returned to last year. While Watkins said Kansas "was always home in my heart," records reveal he had applied 11 times for the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend between 2002 and 2015; that payment is for people who have lived in Alaska for a full year and plan to remain indefinitely. The AP says that property records show Watkins has two condos in Alaska, with one purchased in 2015.
Last week, a Kansas City Star investigation led Watkins to also admit that he'd never owned or built up a defense contracting company, despite what he'd said on the campaign trail. That admission came as several senior company officials said they didn't even remember Watkins, who worked as a contractor.
3Q Fundraising
You can keep track of all the $1 million-plus House fundraising quarters announced so far right here.
Senate
● NV-Sen: The NRSC's latest TV ad warns Nevadans about an invasion from ... California. Indeed, they claim California is trying to "buy control" of Nevada's Senate seat by giving $1.9 million to Democrat Jacky Rosen's campaign (wait until they find out how much GOP Sen. Dean Heller raised out of state). And what does the NRSC think California is trying to buy? “Socialized medicine, higher taxes, and less liberty."
● Senate: Billionaire former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has upped his investment in helping Democrats break the GOP's hold on Congress by donating a hefty $20 million to the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC. Bloomberg had already pledged $80 million to help Democrats flip the House, but he cited the backlash over the Brett Kavanaugh sexual assault scandal as energizing Democrats to the point that he thought the Senate was in play.
Polls:
This marks Suffolk's first Arizona poll of the cycle, although it jibes with other surveys showing Sinema with a consistent but narrow lead over the past month.
Wednesday's two New Jersey Senate polls give Democrats a bit more cause for relief than a recent Stockton University poll that had Menendez up just 45-43, but as fellow university pollster Patrick Murray of Monmouth has pointed out, that Stockton survey had some potentially serious flaws with its sample. Fairleigh Dickinson still has an unusually high share of undecided voters with just five weeks until Election Day, and it's possible that undecided voters who are leaning toward a candidate may be favoring Menendez in this decidedly blue-leaning state.
Meanwhile, Manchin's internal poll from GSG gives him one of his widest leads of the cycle, but there's little doubt that he's favored at this point, and Morrisey hasn't led in any poll for months.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: Republican Walker Stapleton is going up with his first TV ad of the general election, and, interestingly, he's going after Democrat Jared Polis right off the bat rather than throwing out some positive spots about himself first. Stapleton talks to the camera and repeats the familiar GOP line that Polis wants to raise taxes. The one positive thing Stapleton says about himself is "I'll make sure your family isn't left paying the bill."
The RGA has been running negative ads against Polis for months, but as far as we're aware, there haven't been many TV spots actually promoting Stapleton. By contrast, the wealthy Polis has been running plenty of positive ads about himself.
● IL-Gov: Things have looked dire for Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's re-election chances all cycle, and now a damning new report adds to his woes: WBEZ News reveals that newly disclosed records from Rauner's office demonstrate that he delayed telling the public about the details of deadly outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease at a state-run home for war veterans in Quincy. Indeed, they report that Rauner's office played a pivotal role in the six-day delay between when officials learned of the initial outbreak and when residents, their families, and the public were informed in 2015.
This issue became a vulnerability for Rauner after 14 people died and scores more fell ill, with more isolated outbreaks recurring every year Rauner has been governor. After those subsequent outbreaks, the state delayed telling the public for weeks.
The governor's office has long maintained that it followed the proper procedures for infectious disease outbreaks. However, national experts interviewed by WBEZ said Rauner's office had no business interfering with informing people of public health threats, arguing it was highly irresponsible, and one Democratic state representative has called for a criminal investigation into the matter.
Meanwhile, Rauner is also facing pressure from his right flank, with state Sen. Sam McCann running as a Conservative Party challenger, and at least one group isn't taking McCann's campaign lightly. The Economic Freedom Alliance, which has ties to the Illinois Manufacturers Association, has begun a $1.5 million ad campaign attacking McCann for supposedly being an ally of Rauner's arch-nemesis, Democratic state House Speaker Mike Madigan.
● KS-Gov: Democrat Laura Kelly's newest TV ad touts the support of both Republican state Sen. Barbara Bollier and Democratic state Sen. Tom Hawk, who praise her for working with both parties in the legislature. Bollier in particular argues Republican nominee Kris Kobach would be "just like [former GOP Gov.] Sam Brownback: lots of fighting, only making things worse."
● WI-Gov: Republicans appear to be shifting gears from misleadingly attacking Democrat Tony Evers on school safety to hitting him on taxes, and the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity has made a new $1.5 million buy to argue Evers is "a risk we can't afford." This spot closely resembles the argument from a recent commercial from Republican Gov. Scott Walker that Evers would raise taxes.
Polls:
This is Suffolk's first Arizona gubernatorial poll this cycle, but it's consistent with other nonpartisan outfits finding Ducey with a decisive advantage.
House
● AZ-02, MI-08: EMILY's List is spending $139,000 on an ad buy in Arizona's 2nd District and $284,000 on a buy in Michigan's 8th.
● CA-39: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund had been running ad after ad highlighting how a woman named Melissa Fazli had accused Democrat Gil Cisneros of sexually harassing her, but after Fazli withdrew her allegations on Monday, the Cisneros campaign sent out cease-and-desist letters to media outlets to get the CLF's ads pulled. By Tuesday, the commercials had indeed stopped.
The CLF insisted it had already planned to switch to a different spot. However, the Los Angeles Times obtained an email from Charter Communications' attorney to the Cisneros campaign that said that "Charter and CLF have agreed to pull" the CLF's latest ad accusing Cisneros of sexual harassment, and that the change would be made by Tuesday afternoon. The email also said the decision was made after conversations with Charter's political advertising campaign and the CLF's counsel.
Meanwhile, Republican Young Kim has been airing a positive ad that quotes headlines from the Orange County Register and the website Orange County Breeze praising her. However, Mother Jones reports that both those headlines were from Kim and her team, something the ad unsurprisingly doesn't note.
The spot's on-screen text reads "The OC Register—Young Kim: 'Addressing the homeless youth crisis,'" but the "Addressing the homeless youth crisis" line is part of the headline for a 2016 editorial that Kim wrote for the paper. The ad also quotes the Breeze, declaring "Young Kim wins bipartisan support for Orange County," which is the headline to a press release sent out by Kim's state assembly office and published on the site.
● IL-14: House Majority PAC is going up with its first ad buy to aid Democrat Lauren Underwood, laying out $900,000 for ads on cable.
● MD-06: Democrat David Trone has announced that he's cancer-free after a successful operation to remove a kidney.
● NY-24: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC is making its first foray into the race against Republican Rep. John Katko, placing a sizable $1 million buy for an ad that blasts him for voting for Trump's tax cuts for the rich. The narrator argues that the law limits local tax deductions for the middle class, while 83 percent of its benefits go to the top 1 percent. To pay for the $1.9 trillion in new debt, the ad contends, Republicans want to cut Medicare and Social Security.
● OH-01: The Congressional Leadership Fund is up with a new ad hitting Democrat Aftab Pureval for using an account from an earlier campaign for local office to pay for a poll of the congressional race he's now running in. The narrator makes the matter sound as lurid as possible, charging that Pureval is "under investigation" for allegedly using $30,000 in campaign funds "for personal use." She then declares that the Cincinnati Enquirer has "obtained secret Pureval documents suggesting he broke the law," adding that the scandal "could land him in jail."
As we recently explained, Pureval and his staff had maintained that this poll, which was taken before he kicked off his campaign against GOP Rep. Steve Chabot early this year, asked about both a hypothetical 2018 congressional bid and a 2020 re-election campaign for his current position of Hamilton County clerk of courts, which would be legal under state and federal campaign finance regulations. However, the Enquirer got hold of that survey and reported that not one of the questions was about the 2020 clerk of courts race.
Pureval then announced that he'd pay for the poll from both his state and his federal accounts to try to rectify the issue. However, the Enquirer says that a final determination about any wrongdoing is up to the Ohio Elections Commission, which recently voted to investigate Pureval's spending from his clerk of courts account, and violations could result in fines and the case being referred to a criminal prosecutor.
● TX-32: Patients for Affordable Drugs is spending $449,000 on digital ads against GOP Rep. Pete Sessions.
● House: We've launched the inaugural edition of our Daily Kos Elections House Forecast. You can check out the polling averages as they presently stand. While the forecast is optimistic for Democrats, it would be foolish to get cocky, given that over four dozen seats (mostly GOP-held) are within five points of equilibrium. So, give it a read, and check back every Wednesday until Election Day for a new edition!
Polls:
- FL-18: Global Strategy Group (D) for Lauren Baer: Brian Mast (R-inc): 48, Lauren Baer (D): 45
- IL-12: DCCC (in-house): Mike Bost (R-inc): 42, Brendan Kelly (D): 41, Randy Auxier (G): 8
- KS-03: Remington Research (R) for Kevin Yoder: Kevin Yoder (R-inc): 43, Sharice Davids (D): 40
- MN-02: WPA Intelligence for the NRCC and Jason Lewis: Jason Lewis (R-inc): 46, Angie Craig (D): 43 (August: 46-45 Lewis)
- MN-03: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Dean Phillips (D): 49, Erik Paulsen (R-inc): 44
- PA-01: Monmouth: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 50, Scott Wallace (D): 46 (June 49-42 Fitzpatrick)
- PA-10: Public Policy Polling (D): Scott Perry (R-inc): 44, George Scott (D): 43 (June: 45-41 Perry)
- TX-32: GBA Strategies (D) for End Citizens United: Colin Allred (D): 47, Pete Sessions (R-inc): 46 (August: 47-45 Sessions)
The Global Strategy Group poll for Florida Democrat Lauren Baer is only the second survey we've seen of this race, but the margin matches a 46-43 Mast advantage that the Democratic firm PPP found last month. However, neither national party is devoting many resources to this race so far.
In what comes across as an attempt to say, "No, I'm not dead yet," Kansas GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder's survey finds him clinging to a narrow lead over Democrat Sharice Davids, but still with a significant share of undecided voters. By contrast, an independent poll by Siena for the New York Times had Yoder down by a notable 51-43 margin late last month, and the NRCC conspicuously pulled out of the district recently in a sign they didn't think Yoder could win.
Likewise, Minnesota Republican Rep. Jason Lewis' slim lead in his own internal appears intended to ward off being triaged by national Republicans, who have openly worried that he may be unsalvageable in a suburban district Trump only narrowly won.
In Pennsylvania, Monmouth's poll is one of its first to return to a district it had previously surveyed, and it finds Democrat Scott Wallace inching up a few points against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, PPP's 10th District poll is the second one it or anyone else has done, and it continues to show a close race in what could be a sleeper contest for Democrats against GOP Rep. Scott Perry.
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