Leading Off
● Mississippi On Monday, longtime Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood announced he would run for the state's open governorship in 2019, with a formal kickoff scheduled for Wednesday. As the sole Democrat to win statewide office in Mississippi during the last 15 years, Hood may give Democrats their best chance at winning the governor's office since former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove last prevailed in 1999. However, an anti-democratic relic of Mississippi's 1890 Jim Crow constitution could stand in Hood's way—even if he wins the most votes on Election Day.
Campaign Action
The provision in question requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House. If no candidate wins both the popular vote and a majority of districts, the state House then picks the winner from the top two finishers.
That stacks the race against Hood or any other Democrat twice over: first, because the Republicans who control the state legislature have aggressively gerrymandered their own maps, making it much harder for a Democrat to win a majority of House districts than for a Republican; and second, because that same gerrymandered GOP majority in the House could simply install the Republican candidate as governor even if he or she loses the statewide vote.
That effectively gerrymanders the gubernatorial election in favor of the Republicans, since Hood would have to win the statewide vote by a wide margin in order to also carry a majority of House districts and avoid having his fate determined by the House. Yet just as with Donald Trump and the Electoral College, Republicans can win even if they lose.
This perverse provision has its roots in a racist constitution that was explicitly designed to eliminate the power of black voters.
Consequently, there's a strong case to be made that this system violates both the federal Voting Rights Act and perhaps even the Supreme Court's one-person, one-vote jurisprudence, since an equal number of votes won't be cast in each state House district. Indeed, the Supreme Court in 1963 struck down Georgia's system of determining statewide primary contests by a so-called "county unit system" that gave the votes of rural populations excessive weight. However, a proposal to repeal Mississippi's system failed in the legislature earlier this year.
One reason this law likely still remains on the books is that Mississippi has never seen a candidate win the statewide vote while losing the district-level vote. The closest the system ever came to being tested was Musgrove's 1999 election, when he won a 49.6-48.5 plurality over Republican Mike Parker, and both candidates carried exactly half of the state House districts. Democrats still dominated the legislature at that point, however, and they easily elected Musgrove.
Since his first election in 2003, Hood has always won by double digits, even though Republicans made a considerable effort to defeat him in 2015. If he can replicate such a decisive victory, he may have a chance at winning the 62 of the 122 state House districts needed to prevail. However, Mississippi is still a very red state, and if this law remains in place next year, it could prove decisive—to the detriment of Democrats and the black voters who support them in particular.
Voter Registration and Voting Access
● Congress: On Wednesday, leading Senate Democrats introduced the Native American Voting Rights Act, a sweeping piece of legislation designed to ensure equal access to the electoral process for Native Americans. Although the bill almost certainly stands no chance of passing so long as Republicans control Congress, it's a sign of what Democrats could pass if they retake power.
If this bill becomes law, it would require Justice Department approval for changes to voting laws or procedures that affect Native American lands. The law would help counteract the damage done by the Supreme Court's infamous Shelby County v. Holder 2013 ruling that gutted a provision of the Voting Rights Act requiring states with a history of racial discrimination to obtain DOJ approval for such changes. It would also require the Justice Department to regularly consult with tribal organizations.
Furthermore, the bill seeks to mitigate the suppressive effects of voter ID laws by requiring that tribal IDs be treated like state-issued IDs for the purpose of voting. It would also include measures to make voter registration easier and ensure polling places are located to adequately meet voters' needs. Finally, it would allocate funding for states and tribal organizations to promote voter education and registration.
● Early Voting: Daily Kos Elections has published a calendar detailing when the early voting period begins and ends in all 37 states where it's available. Note that in some states, "early voting" may be referred to by another name (most commonly "in-person absentee voting"), and procedures for casting ballots early can vary, so please check with local election officials.
● North Carolina: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and the GOP-run state legislature approved a law to extend the voter registration deadline from Oct. 12 to Oct. 15 in 28 eastern North Carolina counties most affected by Hurricane Florence. Voters still have the chance to register and cast a ballot on the same day during the early voting period from Oct. 17 through Nov. 3, but North Carolina doesn't allow same-day registration on Election Day itself.
● South Carolina: Following the flooding and disruption from Hurricane Florence, a state judge agreed with a request from both Democrats and Republicans to extend South Carolina's voter registration deadline by 10 days. Voters will now have until Oct. 17 to register in person, online, or by mail.
● Voter Registration: Sept. 24 was National Voter Registration Day, and Time reported that over 800,000 people registered that day—more than the 771,000 who did so on the same occasion in 2016. However, federal law allows states to begin cutting off registration starting on Sunday, so registration deadlines are coming up soon in many states. You can find a list of state-by-state voter registration deadlines here, though note that 15 states plus the District of Columbia allow voters to register and cast ballots at the same time on Election Day (known as “same-day” registration). Some also permit same-day registration during their early voting period, while Maryland and North Carolina only provide for it then (and not on Election Day itself). See our Early Voting item above for the dates of each state’s early voting period.
Voter Suppression
● Georgia: Civil rights groups announced on Tuesday that they intend to file a lawsuit against Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp's office over what they argue was the illegal purge of up to 700,000 legitimate voter registrations over the past two years. Kemp’s critics accuse him of using the infamously flawed Crosscheck database to purge voters, which Kemp has categorically denied, and they also allege that he failed to send a notice of removal to those voters.
● North Dakota: The plaintiffs in the lawsuit over North Dakota's GOP-backed voter ID law have appealed to the Supreme Court to overturn a recent ruling of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit that reinstated part of the law for this year's elections, which plaintiffs argued unduly burdens Native American voters' rights. While such rulings that come so close to Election Day are usually disfavored, election experts believe it's unlikely that the Supreme Court will block it.
Redistricting
● North Carolina: As expected, North Carolina Republicans have formally petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn a district court ruling from this summer that had once again struck down their congressional gerrymander for violating the Constitution. The district court had already stayed its own ruling on the condition that Republicans expedite their appeal, and once Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed to replace former Justice Anthony Kennedy, it's likely the Supreme Court will overrule the lower court's decision.
● Virginia: After a state House committee voted along party lines to advance a GOP-drawn map to replace 11 of the chamber's districts that had been struck down for racial discrimination, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam has promised to veto the proposal and force the federal court overseeing the case to draw its own map. This outcome is unsurprising, but for this ruling to survive and produce new districts for use in 2019, ultimately at least one of the conservatives on the Supreme Court would have to side with the court’s four liberals, the odds of which are uncertain.
