Mississippi State Senate Districts
Below you'll find an alternative to Mississippi's state senate districts. What you'll notice is that my version has more Black opportunity districts than the actual map. This comparison will show a different interpretation of how representative districts ought to be drawn. The numbering of the districts in the map below keeps to the previous numbering as close as possible. At the end you’ll find partisan and demographic data charts for each district, followed by a statewide image for both versions. [I drew the actual districts as best I could on Dave's Redistricting App, however, there are some noticeable precinct differences, which couldn't be reconciled in the app. For example, in Madison County the 22nd district is not contiguous. There were only a few districts where this was an issue].
Memphis Suburbs 1, 2, 10, 19
Districts 1 and 2 don't change much in terms of partisanship, while the 19th moves a bit to the right. The 10th district has more significant changes. The actual 10th takes in all of Tate and most of Marshall counties which makes it Voting Age Population (VAP) 40% Black. My 10th takes in part of Tate county, all of Marshall, and all of neighboring Benton County, thus increasing the Black VAP to 41.6%. This minor change moves the district's PVI from R+2 to D+2 making it a better Black access/opportunity district. This is a small example of the state's districts diluting Black voters.
Northeast 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Though the boundaries of districts 3, 4, and 5 change significantly, their partisan and demographic makeups are very similar. The 6th is cleaned up staying as a suburban Tupelo district within Lee County. The big changes in this region are with the 7th and 8th districts. The actual 7th district takes in parts of Itawamba, Lee, and Monroe counties. It has a Black VAP of 36%. The neighboring 8th takes in Calhoun and Chickasaw counties, as well as parts of Lee, Pontotoc and Yalobusha counties. These 2 districts split the heavily concentrated Black population in the Tupelo area, which currently allows 2 White Democrats to hold onto their seats. This helps the state party win more seats, but the 7th is an R+6 seat and the 8th is an R+11. In other words the combination of a large Black and ancestral Democratic vote blocs may be enough to keep these Republican leaning seats in the Democratic column, but at the cost of more Black representation. My 8th district becomes a mostly Black district with a Black VAP of 48%, which matches its White VAP, and it has a PVI of D+7. This is accomplished by combining Chickasaw County with Lee County's large Black population in and around the city of Tupelo and Monroe County's rural Black population west of the Tennessee Tombigbee Waterway. The 7th thus becomes a very Republican district taking in the rest of Monroe County, part of Lowndes, and all of Itawamba. Finally, the 9th district is mostly the same, drawing most of its population from Lafayette County.
Delta 11, 12, 13, 14, 22, 23, 24
This region's districts undergo significant change. The minor changes to the 11th district's boundaries mean that the district's Black population is not as packed. The actual 11th's Black VAP is at 69%; mine is at 54%. This is because my 11th doesn't take in Clarksdale in Coahoma County, instead taking in parts north of it, as well as all of Panola County.
My 12th district takes in all Bolivar County and most of Coahoma, which slightly reduces the Black VAP from 68% in the actual 12th to 65%. My 13th also reduces the Black VAP from 69% to 61%. It's also moved from being a Sunflower County based district to a Yazoo County based district.
My 14th district is one of the most significantly changed. The actual 14th takes in one whole county, Carroll, and parts of 7 other counties. It's a mostly White district with a sizeable Black VAP at 29%, but that's certainly not high enough to possibly elect a Black senator; its PVI is R+18. My 14th is much more compact. It also takes in all of Carroll County, as well as all of Grenada and Holmes counties, and part of Yalobusha. This turns it into a mostly Black district with a Black VAP of 51%; its PVI is D+3. Obviously, this creates a new Black opportunity district where the should be.
My 22nd district also sees significant change. It's boundaries are far more compact, no longer reaching as far north as Bolivar County all the way down to Madison County's border with Rankin County. Surprisingly, the actual district is mostly Black with a Black VAP of 53%, but it has voted for a White Republican for years. (The current incumbent has been in office since 2004). My 22nd becomes more compact by keeping Sharkey County and taking all of Issaquena and Washington counties. Its Black VAP goes up to 67%.
Finally, the 23rd though mostly the same, also undergoes significant change. The district is based out of swingy Warren County, but instead of taking in Issaquena County and mostly White parts of Yazoo County, my 23rd moves south taking in all of Claiborne County. This brings its Black VAP from 42%, in the actual district, to 50% in my version. The district's total population is also mostly Black now. This district is similar to the actual 22nd which has elected a White Republican multiple times, therefore it's conceivable that this district could also do so. However, this version is still more appropriate as it doesn't dilute the Black electorate in the area.
Overall, this region goes from 4 Black access districts with another two that have potential to elect a Black senator, to 6 or 7 mostly Black districts.
East Central 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 31, 32, 33, 34
This region also undergoes significant change increasing the amount of Black opportunity districts. In my version districts 15, 18, and 31, move a bit to the left and are more cleaned up.
The actual 21st packs together Black voters from Attala, Holmes, Leake, Madison, and Yazoo counties, bringing its total Black population to 69% and its Black VAP to 66%. My 21st becomes a more compact, less packed, but still a mostly Black district. My version takes in all of Attala, most of Leake, and part of Madison County. The Black VAP is brought down to 54% and the district's PVI is D+8.
The 16th sees a huge change. The actual 16th district takes in all of Clay County, and parts of Lowndes, Noxubee, and Oktibbeha counties. This district stretches south to include more Black voters than necessary. A much more compact version is doable which allows an extra Black district in this region to be created. My 16th takes in all of Clay County, and parts of Lowndes and Oktibbeha counties, but doesn't take in any of Noxubee County. My district's Black population drops considerably from 63% to 48%, and its Black VAP drops from 59% to 44%. However, this is still a solidly Democratic district having a PVI of D+8. This district doesn't need to pack the regions Black voters in order to create a Black access district. Furthermore, this allows the 17th to become a mostly Black district.
My 17th district takes in all of Kemper and Noxubee counties, and most of Lowndes County. Its Black VAP is 53% and has a PVI of D+8. The actual 17th is comprised mostly of Lowndes County as well, but it avoids most of the Black population in Columbus, which goes to the 16th. The rest of the district takes in heavily White areas in Monroe County. All of this does have an effect on the 32nd district, but overall there is more opportunity for Black representation in the senate.
The actual 32nd district combines the Black population of Meridian, in Lauderdale County, with more rural parts north of it in Kemper, Noxubee, and Winston counties; its Black VAP is at 62%. My 32nd is mostly Black and entirely in Lauderdale County; its Black VAP is 50%. This district becomes significantly less Democratic, but this district still should be able to elect a Black senator. Furthermore, this is creates a third Black opportunity district in the region.
The nearby districts 33 and 34 are also changed to allow more Black representation. My 33rd, of course, takes in the White areas around Meridian to allow the 32nd to be a mostly Black district within Lowndes County. It also takes in Newton County while losing rural Black population in Clarke county to the 34th. My 34th is very similar to the actual district. They're both a bit less than 56% Black, my district's Black VAP is 51%, the actual district's Black VAP is 52%, and both have a PVI of D+6. However, there is one huge difference; mine stays out of Hattiesburg. While the actual 34th takes in all of Jasper County, part of Jones County, including the city of Laurel, it also heads into Forrest county taking in a large part of the Black population in and around of the city of Hattiesburg. My 34th district also takes in all of Jasper County and even heads into Jones County taking in Laurel, but in a less convoluted manner. Instead of heading to Hattiesburg, the district takes in the more rural Black population in Clarke and Wayne counties.
Capital region 20, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 35
There are eight main districts in this region. In my version six districts are mostly Black, five of them have a mostly Black VAP, the other has a plurality Black VAP. In the actual map, there are only 4 Black districts, the other four are mostly White. This is another significant example of Black voters being packed into fewer districts. For instance, the district with the highest Black population here is the 28th. Its total Black population reaches 87% and it has a Black VAP of 84%. In my version the district with the highest Black population is the 29th, at 61% and Black VAP at 56%.
In order to unpack the districts here, the 28th, 29th, and 30th take in enough Black voters from Hinds County and cross into Rankin County. The Black VAPs for the districts are 48%, 55%, 57%, respectively, and they have a PVI of D+9 or higher. This allows the 25th and 27th districts to take in more Black voters in and around Jackson, making them new Black opportunity districts. The 26th district also loses areas to the 25th, while picking up areas from the 36th which is mostly outside of Hinds County. The remaining two districts, the 20th and 35th, are the only White districts in the area and are, of course, solidly Republican.
Southwest 36, 37, 38, 39
The districts in this region are cleaned up and unpacked. The 36th remains a mostly Black district, but my version brings the Black VAP down from 63% to 51%, while remaining a strong Democratic district. It does this by taking in all of Copiah County, but instead of going into Hinds and taking all of Claiborne and Jefferson counties, my 36th heads south and southeast into Lawrence, Lincoln, and Jefferson Davis counties. My 37th picks up Jefferson County from from the 36th. It also takes in all of Adams and Wilkinson, making it more the equivalent of the actual 38th, which is a mostly Black district that packs Black voters from Adams County all the way to Walthall County. My version unpacks and is more compact. My 38th district is a new mostly Black district, with a plurality Black VAP at 49%. It's actually competitive having an Even PVI, however, compared to the actual map this is an improvement. The actual map has one mostly Black district, the 38th, with a Black VAP of 62%, leaving the 37th's Black VAP at 33%. The 33rd is represented by a White Democrat who barely won election in 2015 after the state senate voted to seat him. Under my map, there's now an opportunity for the district to elect a Black senator. My 39th takes in what's left over from creating a new Black district. This moves it to the right a bit, but this allows more non-White representation.
Pine Belt 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 51
This region undergoes massive change with some districts taking in a lot of new territory and others abolished. There are also less county splits. The 40th is now the entirety of Pearl River County; the 44th is now the entirety of Lamar County. The actual 47th district is absorbed into two others in my version. There's also a new Black opportunity district based in Hattiesburg.
On the actual map, much of the Black population in Hattiesburg is put into the 34th, a district that stretches north into Jones and Jasper counties, thus, packing Black voters into a single district. My version has the 42nd district entirely in Forrest County. It's a plurality Black district at 48% total population, and has a Black VAP of 44%. It has a PVI of D+9. This is the type of district that could certainly elect a Black senator despite not being mostly Black. Furthermore, even if it doesn't, Black voters are no longer packed into a single district. The neighboring 45th similarly takes in all of Perry County and much of Forrest County, but it also takes in Stone County and even goes into Harrison. This district takes a leap from R+19 to R+32.
My 43rd takes in parts of Jones and Wayne around the newly created, Jasper County centered 34th. It more closely resembles the actual 42nd. My 51st, which more closely resembles the actual 43rd, takes in less of Jackson County and absorbs George and Greene counties. Meanwhile, my 41st doesn't have considerable demographic and partisan change to its actual counterpart.
Coast 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 52
For the most part, the districts here are cleaned up, while staying heavily Republican. The 49th and 50th districts remain mostly the same. There are a couple that move significantly to the left by coalescing the Black populations in Gulfport and Pascagoula.
The 46th district is actually mostly the same since it's based out of Hancock County. My 47th is also similar to its actual counterpart in regards to demographics and partisanship, despite being a mostly new district contained in Jackson County. In Harrison County lies one of the states few competitive districts, the 48th. Most of the actual district is in Gulfport, which includes a large Black population. The remainder includes very conservative and White suburbs like Long Beach and Pass Christian. This combination makes the actual 48th a Republican leaning competitive district with a PVI of R+3. My 48th district loses those White suburbs and stays in Gulfport bringing the district's Black VAP up to 37% from 33%. This combination gives my 48th a PVI of D+2. Finally, my 52nd district sees some of the most significant changes of all. While both versions are contained in Jackson County, the actual district splits the large Black population in the Pascagoula area with the 51st district. This makes both districts very White and very Republican. My 52nd district consolidates Pascagoula's population, bringing its total Black population up to 40% from 22%, and its Black VAP to 38%. My district has a PVI of R+3 compared to the actual district's PVI of R+20. The intention here was not necessarily to make new Black opportunity districts since that was not practical. Instead the intention was to undo the dilution of Black voting strength in the area.
My intent with this project is to show how a state's legislative districts are usually drawn with an intention other than creating more representative districts. As you can see with Mississippi's current senate district map there are many contorted districts. This affects the state senate's composition by preventing more Black access districts from existing. In some areas, Black voters are packed into fewer districts, while in other areas Black voters are diluted into multiple districts. My alternative version has up to 26 districts with the potential to elect a Black senator. The actual, current plan has up to 16. This includes competitive districts, of which there are also more in my version. Thank you for reading.
The maps were created using Dave’s Redistricting App: gardow.com/…
The charts and data were assembled using spreadsheets via Stephen Wolf’s guide: www.dailykos.com/…
The Statistical Atlas was used to match the district numbering: statisticalatlas.com/…
Ballotpedia was used to help determine incumbents in some districts: ballotpedia.org/...
Google Images aided in determining the regional breakdown