Bad news for Republicans in a Washington Post-Schar School survey of 69 battleground House districts. Republicans currently hold 63 of the districts polled compared with just six for Democrats, but the poll finds a four-point lead for Democrats, 50 percent to 46 percent. If that doesn’t sound like much, consider this: “in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent.”
As with so much other polling this year, there’s a huge gender gap, with 54 percent of women supporting Democrats to just 40 percent favoring Republicans, while 51 percent of men support Republicans and 46 percent support Democrats. Republican support is being held up by white voters, and in particular those without college degrees. Overall, 49 percent of whites back Republicans to 47 percent backing Democrats, but among white college graduates, 55 percent support Democrats to 42 percent for Republicans. Among whites without college degrees, though, 53 percent are voting Republican to 42 percent for Democrats.
Predictably, Donald Trump is a major factor:
At this point, Trump appears to be more of a motivating factor in the voting decisions of Democrats than Republicans in these battleground districts. Among self-identified Democrats and independents who lean to the Democrats, 40 percent say Trump is the single most important issue in their vote this fall, followed by health care at 20 percent. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, however, 29 percent say the economy tops their list, with 24 percent naming judicial nominations, 17 percent saying immigration and 15 percent citing Trump.
This poll is great news for Democratic prospects in retaking the House—great news not in a “sit back and relax” way but in a “when your opponent is drowning, throw him an anvil” way. So give, volunteer, talk to your friends and neighbors.
Can you give $1 to each of these amazing Democratic women running for House?