The Colorado Senate currently has an 18-17 Republican majority. 17 of its 35 seats are up this year; there is no rhyme or reason to which seats are up based on their numbering (both odd and even-numbered seats will be up in any given cycle). Republicans currently hold 4 seats that Clinton carried in 2016, 2 of which are up this year. Democrats don’t currently hold any seats that Trump carried. The hardest-fought seats in the fight for the majority are districts 16, 20, and 24, all of which are in the Denver metro area and all of which were won by Clinton by between 5 and 9 points. The Colorado Senate is widely viewed as being one of Democrats’ best opportunities to flip a Republican-held legislative chamber. Without further ado, here is an analysis of each district up in 2018.
District 1 – Jerry Sonnenberg (R) – Eastern Plains
2016 President: 74% Trump, 19% Clinton
2014 Senate: 75% Gardner, 19% Udall
2012 President: 70% Romney, 28% Obama
Incumbent Jerry Sonnenberg is running for re-election in the most Republican district in the state. Believe it or not, Democrats used to be at least somewhat competitive in downballot races on the Eastern Plains (Cory Gardner is actually telling the truth when he says that he comes from a family of Eastern Plains conservaDems), but obviously they are not anymore. Sonnenberg will win in a walk against Debra Gustafson, whose candidacy is nonetheless notable because Democrats have managed to contest every legislative seat up in 2018, even this no-hope race in a district that is red and getting redder. Safe R
District 2 – Kevin Grantham (R) – Canon City, suburban Colorado Springs
2016 President: 64% Trump, 28% Clinton
2014 Senate: 62% Gardner, 30% Udall
2012 President: 61% Romney, 36% Obama
Senate President Kevin Grantham is term-limited in this district that includes Fremont County (notable for the fact that about 40 percent of its population consists of inmates in various federal and state prisons; the highest rate in the country) and suburbs of Colorado Springs and will be replaced by El Paso County Commissioner Dennis Hisey, who assured himself of victory with his win in the primary in this already heavily conservative seat that swung hard toward Trump. Safe R
District 3 – Leroy Garcia (D) – Pueblo, Pueblo West
2016 President: 48% Clinton, 44% Trump
2014 Senate: 49% Udall, 44% Gardner
2012 President: 58% Obama, 39% Romney
Senator Leroy Garcia, who will become Senate President if Democrats retake the chamber, is running for re-election against a Libertarian. Garcia won by about 10 in 2014 against a Republican who had been elected in a recall election the year before. Pueblo is unique within the western United States, as it was formerly dominated by the steel industry, and it saw the same large swing toward Trump that was evident in most de-industrializing cities in the Midwest. Trump actually won Pueblo County, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate since Nixon in 1972 to do so. However, the more Republican-leaning areas of the county are in Senate District 35, which is not up this year. In spite of the large swing toward Trump, Republicans did not field a candidate here. This is a missed opportunity for them; even a losing campaign could have helped them as they attempt to establish downballot strength in a part of the state where they have very little. Safe D
District 5 – Kerry Donovan (D) – Delta, Vail, Gunnison, Aspen
2016 President: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
2014 Senate: 48% Udall, 47% Gardner
2012 President: 51% Obama, 46% Romney
This district can best be described as having a split personality; Delta County, which is economically dependent on the oil and gas industry, produces massive Republican margins, but is typically narrowly outvoted by the Democratic margins out of Eagle, Gunnison, and Pitkin Counties; resort areas that are heavily dependent on tourism. The current Senator is Kerry Donovan; she won by two points in 2014 and is running for re-election. Her opponent is Olen Lund, a former Delta County Commissioner. While Lund is a credible candidate on paper, Donovan has massively outraised him, bringing in almost $200,000 to his $15,000. Between her fundraising, the lean of the year, and the likelihood of supercharged turnout among white liberals in the resort counties, Donovan is a heavy favorite. However, the presence of Delta County means that Republicans have a high floor here. Likely D
District 6 – Don Coram (R) – Durango, Cortez, Montrose, Telluride
2016 President: 52% Trump, 40% Clinton
2014 Senate: 55% Gardner, 41% Udall
2012 President: 53% Romney, 44% Obama
This district is Republican-leaning, although not overwhelmingly so due to the presence of La Plata and San Miguel Counties (Durango and Telluride). However, La Plata is only light-blue, San Miguel is tiny, and Montrose and Montezuma Counties are blood-red, so the district as a whole leans Republican. It was represented by a Democrat as recently as 2010, and the incumbent, Don Coram, was appointed to the seat after the previous incumbent resigned and has not yet had to face the voters. However, he has developed a moderate voting record that suits the district well and is familiar to voters in Cortez and Montrose due to his time in the State House, where he served from 2010 until his appointment. His opponent is Guinn Unger, who serves on the board of an electrical co-op in La Plata County (an elected position). Coram has a fundraising advantage, although not a particularly large one, and Unger is a credible candidate. For now, this district is on the edge of the playing field. Likely R
District 7 – Ray Scott (R) – Mesa County
2016 President: 64% Trump, 28% Clinton
2014 Senate: 68% Gardner, 27% Udall
2012 President: 65% Romney, 33% Obama
This district consists of the entirety of Mesa County; its largest city is Grand Junction. Incumbent Ray Scott is a conservative with some antiestablishment leanings who has had a series of minor controversies over his time in office. However, he won his primary against a more moderate sitting legislator with 64 percent of the vote. He actually faces a credible opponent in Grand Junction City Councilman Chris Kennedy, who briefly ran for Congress in the 3rd District before dropping down to this race. Although neither candidate has raised a whole lot of money, Scott has outraised Kennedy approximately 6 to 1, and should be carried to a convincing victory by the lean of the district. Safe R
District 9 – Kent Lambert (R) – Northern El Paso County, Monument
2016 President: 63% Trump, 28% Clinton
2014 Senate: 71% Gardner, 25% Udall
2012 President: 70% Romney, 28% Obama
This district, much like many other upper-class suburban areas, did not react favorably to Trump. However, this district is so red that Trump’s 7 point dropoff from Romney matters little as far as the State Senate race is concerned. Incumbent Kent Lambert is term limited, and State Representative Paul Lundeen will move to the upper chamber with ease against Gil Armendariz, who is running on a platform of universal healthcare and combatting climate change. What’s more concerning about Trump’s performance here for Republicans is that if Walker Stapleton or any of the downballot candidates are not winning this district by 40+ points, it will be difficult for them to win statewide. Safe R
District 11 – Michael Merrifield (D) – Downtown Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs
2016 President: 50% Clinton, 39% Trump
2014 Senate: 51% Udall, 42% Romney
2012 President: 59% Obama, 38% Romney
This district encompasses almost every Democratic precinct in El Paso County, and leans Democratic, although this is the type of seat that could conceivably go Republican if everything goes right for the GOP; they won it in a recall in 2013 and came close against an incumbent in 2010. Incumbent Mike Merrifield is retiring even though he is not term-limited; he won by 10 points in 2013 against a Republican incumbent who had won a recall election the previous year. He previously served a stint in the State House and lost a few campaigns for local office. Running to replace him for the Democrats is Pete Lee, who has served in an overlapping State House seat that is politically very similar since 2010. Running against him is Patrick McIntire, a local businessman who has never held elected office. Lee has a massive fundraising advantage; he has raised about $120,000, compared with about $15,000 for McIntire, and neither party is treating this as being particularly competitive. Suffice it to say that this isn’t a year when everything will go right for the Republican; between Lee’s fundraising advantage and the lean of the year, Lee should win handily. Safe D
District 13 – John Cooke (R) – Greeley, Fort Lupton
2016 President: 52% Trump, 39% Clinton
2014 Senate: 56% Gardner, 37% Udall
2012 President: 50% Romney, 48% Obama
Most of this district’s population is in Greeley, although it stretches down to the Adams County line. This district voted for Trump by 13 points after voting narrowly for Romney in 2012, and likely narrowly for Obama in 2008. This is a district with a significant agricultural/meatpacking presence and the Democratic base here consists primarily of low-turnout Hispanics, many of whom work in these industries. As a result, it is a godsend to Republicans that this district is up in midterm years, as it is basically safe for them in a midterm while it would likely be seriously contested if it were up in a presidential year. Incumbent John Cooke, a former Weld County Sheriff, is thus the overwhelming favorite against Phil Kelley, who has not raised the money necessary to run a competitive race. Safe R
District 15 – Kevin Lundberg (R) – All of Larimer County except Fort Collins
2016 President: 52% Trump, 39% Clinton
2014 Senate: 55% Gardner, 39% Udall
2012 President: 52% Romney, 45% Obama
While this district is fairly large geographically, the vast majority of its residents live in Loveland or elsewhere along the I-25 corridor. This district has not been seriously contested since Stan Matsunaka improbably won 2 terms here as a Democrat in the 1990s, and it is an anomaly in the sense that it is a fairly affluent, educated area where Trump won by a wider margin than Romney. Incumbent Kevin Lundberg is term-limited and is retiring after making an unsuccessful bid for Treasurer, in which he failed to make the ballot at the state convention. The Republican candidate is Rob Woodward, a businessman who owns numerous Subway franchises. Somewhat surprisingly, Democrats have fielded a credible candidate here in Rebecca Cranston, the director of a nonprofit who has a powerful personal story as the survivor of sex trafficking as a teenager. Woodward has substantially outraised Cranston, but she has raised enough to be credible. Woodward has also substantially outspent Cranston thus far, so both candidates enter the home stretch with a similar amount of cash on hand. However, Cranston recently earned a good deal of free media (if you can call it that) because someone fired a bullet through the window of her car while she was sitting in her driveway. Make no mistake, Woodward is favored here, but Cranston is credible enough that an upset is possible if this district reacts adversely to Trump in the way that many similar places have. I have this on the Lean/Likely border, but I’m going to err on the side of caution and call it Likely R.
District 16 – Tim Neville (R) – Golden and outlying areas of Jefferson and Boulder Counties, all of Gilpin County, a tiny portion of Denver.
2016 President: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
2014 Senate: 48% Udall, 47% Gardner
2012 President: 50% Obama, 47% Romney
Finally, we get to one of the two main battlegrounds in the fight for the State Senate; assuming that they do not gain any seats elsewhere, Republicans need to hold both of them to maintain their slim majority. The vast majority of this district’s population is in Jeffco, and Republicans have historically done better downballot here than at the top of the ticket. The incumbent here is Tim Neville, a hard-right antiestablishment conservative who won by 3 points in 2014 against an incumbent Democrat whose district had been dramatically redrawn. Neville is also the patriarch of what I guess you could call a Jeffco/Douglas County political dynasty; one of his sons is the Minority Leader of the State House (he represents safe seat in Castle Rock), another son is an influential lobbyist, and his sister served on the Jeffco school board before being recalled. As you may have guessed, he’s not the best fit for a moderate district that was won by Obama in 2012 and saw a significant swing toward Clinton in 2016. His opponent is Tammy Story, a public education advocate who was involved with the aforementioned school board recall campaign. Her electoral track record is less than stellar; she lost a bid for a State House seat by a narrow margin two years ago despite the fact that Clinton carried the seat and the Republican incumbent had various legal issues surrounding a messy divorce. However, Story has the lean of the district and the lean of the year in her favor, and has outraised Neville by approximately $400,000 to $200,000, although outside spending favors Neville. Democrats outvoted Republicans here by a wide margin in the June primary. Given the lean of the district, lean of the year, Neville’s reputation as a staunch conservative, and the fact that almost every U.S. House Republican who represents a congressional seat politically similar to this one appears to be trailing, I’m comfortable saying that Story is the favorite. Lean D.
District 20 – Cheri Jahn (I) – Inner-ring Jeffco suburbs, Wheat Ridge, part of Arvada
2016 President: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
2014 Senate: 48% Udall, 46% Gardner
2012 President: 52% Obama, 46% Romney
Cheri Jahn, the owner of a crime-scene cleaning business who was elected to the State House and Senate for the better part of two decades as a Democrat but chose to leave the party and become an independent late in her final term, is term-limited. Jahn won two close races, winning by 4 points in 2010 in a bluer district and by a half a point in 2014 against a C-list candidate who raised little money. Democrats have nominated Jessie Danielson, who represents an overlapping district in the State House, and Republicans have nominated Christine Jensen, a banker and the chair of the Arvada Chamber of Commerce. Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primary here by a wide margin. Both candidates have fundraised credibly, but Danielson has a massive edge; she has raised about $300,000, while Jensen has raised about $115,000, although this seat has seen more outside spending than any other, the vast majority of which has favored Jensen. Republicans almost won this seat 4 years ago, but it’ll be difficult for Republicans to win a seat that Clinton won by 9 points in a bad year for them against a Democratic candidate who is familiar to many of the voters in the district, and I’m comfortable giving Danielson the edge, although not an insurmountable one. Lean D.
District 22 – Andy Kerr (D) – Inner-ring Jeffco suburbs, Lakewood
2016 President: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
2014 Senate: 48% Udall, 46% Gardner
2012 President: 53% Obama, 45% Romney
Andy Kerr, a teacher who has served in the State House and Senate since 2006, is term-limited despite having served only 6 years in the Senate (he served the majority of a partial term, which counts as a full term for purposes of the law.) He won re-election in 2014 by 2 points against a flawed candidate after winning a special election by 5 against an A-list Republican. Running to replace him on the Democratic side is Brittany Pettersen, who has represented an overlapping district in the State House since 2012. Pettersen initially planned to run for Congress this cycle, but dropped down to this race after Ed Perlmutter changed his mind about retiring after his abortive run for Governor. Running on the Republican side is Tony Sanchez, who narrowly lost to Kerr in 2014. Despite the close loss, Sanchez is a poor candidate; he won his primary in 2014 against a more moderate opponent by running hard to the right on abortion and guns and his ties to Colorado were minimal, as he had moved from California a short time before. Democrats outvoted Republicans by a significant margin in the primary here, and as is the case in District 20, Pettersen has outraised Sanchez by about $250,000 to $100,000. However, outside spending is split about evenly between the candidates. Neither party is acting like this is as competitive as Districts 16, 20, or 24. Given the lean of the district, lean of the year, and Sanchez’s flaws as a candidate, I rate this as Likely D.
District 24 – Beth Martinez Humenik (R) – Northwest Adams County; Thornton, Northglenn
2016 President: 48% Clinton, 43% Trump
2014 Senate: 47% Gardner, 46% Udall
2012 President: 53% Obama, 44% Romney
This is the other seat that Republicans need to hold in order to keep their majority. This seat consists of northern suburbs of Denver in Adams County; this district is more downscale and blue-collar than any of the Jeffco seats that are up this cycle. On paper, it should be an easier hold than the 16th; Clinton won it by a smaller margin, it’s trending somewhat toward Republicans, and it voted for Gardner over Udall. On the flip side, Republicans don’t have the downballot strength in Adams County that they do in Jeffco; the area is historically Democratic, although Republicans have made inroads here over the past decade. The incumbent here is Beth Martinez Humenik, who was a surprise winner in 2014; prior to that she had served on the Thornton City Council and lost a race for an overlapping State House seat in 2012 by 20 points. However, she has been a moderate during her time in the Senate and is a decent fit for her historically Democratic seat. The Democratic candidate is Faith Winter, who represents an overlapping State House seat and gained national attention after filing a complaint alleging sexual harassment by another legislator, who was later expelled from the State House. Winter is an A-list recruit and has raised a ton of money for a Colorado legislative race, bringing in around $350,000. Martinez Humenik has raised a fraction of that, but outside groups are picking up the slack for her, and total spending will likely end up as roughly equal. Complicating things is Adam Matkowski, who is running as a moderate independent. He is more credible than the typical independent candidate, as he currently serves on the Thornton City Council. While he is running on a moderate platform, he initially attempted to run for the seat as a Democrat, but was elbowed out of the way by Winter, so he could cut into her vote share. Gun to my head, I’d say Winter wins, but given that this is a matchup between two strong candidates and the uncertainty that Matkowski’s presence causes, I rate this as a Tossup.
District 30 – Chris Holbert (R) – Northern Douglas County, Highlands Ranch, Lone Tree
President 2016; 51% Trump, 41% Clinton
Senate 2014: 60% Gardner, 36% Udall
President 2012: 60% Romney, 39% Obama
This is a highly educated, affluent suburban district that didn’t particularly care for Trump; he won this district by 10 points while Romney won it by 21. Incumbent Chris Holbert is still safe against a challenger who has not raised enough money to run a credible campaign; the only question here is if Stapleton and the Republican candidates for downballot races are able to win this by 20+ points; they will have to make up votes elsewhere if they are unable to do so in order to win. Safe R
District 32 – Irene Aguilar (D) – Southwest Denver
2016 President: 70% Clinton, 22% Trump
2014 Senate: 66% Udall, 29% Romney
2012 President: 69% Obama, 29% Romney
This district includes the area around the University of Denver and the southwest parts of the city. It’s a safely Democratic, majority-white seat. However, it isn’t quite as blue as the other Denver districts; this part of Denver elected moderate Republicans to the legislature through the late 1990s. Irene Aguilar, a physician, is term-limited and there was a three-way primary to replace her. The winner was Robert Rodriguez, who has been involved in Democratic politics in Denver for years despite this being his first run for office. He will win easily in this safe district. Safe D.
District 34 – Lucia Guzman – Northwest Denver
2016 President: 76% Clinton, 16% Trump
2014 Senate: 74% Udall, 20% Gardner
2012 President: 77% Obama, 20% Romney
This northwest Denver seat is about 45 percent Hispanic and 45 percent white, and includes LoDo and Coors Field. It is occupied by Lucia Guzman, who formerly served as Senate Minority Leader before stepping down due to frustration over her inability to work with the Republican majority to handle the sexual harassment allegations against Sen. Randy Baumgardner (who is not up this year) in a manner that she viewed as appropriate; she is term-limited. State Representative Dan Pabon, a member of the House Democratic leadership, was viewed as the overwhelming frontrunner. However, he decided not to run after getting a DUI; this resulted in a primary between three lesser-known candidates. The winner, by a wide margin, was Julie Gonzales, an immigration activist and policy director for a law office who has worked on several campaigns but is a first-time candidate. Making it through the primary was the hard part for her; she’s guaranteed to coast in the general. Safe D.
Overview: While Districts 5, 6, 15, and 22 are on the edge of the playing field, it would be a surprise if any of those seats were to change parties. Thus, control of the Senate will likely come down to which party wins two of Districts 16, 20, and 24, with 16 probably being the median seat for purposes of control of the chamber. Given that the battle for the Senate is taking place in seats that Clinton won by 5 to 9 points in a year that’s shaping up to be good for Democrats, they have to feel confident about where the fight is taking place. In order to hold the Senate, Republicans will have to either hold both Districts 16 and 24, or lose one of those two and pick up either Districts 5 (unlikely) or 20 (more likely than 5, but not by all that much). As a result, control of the Senate Leans D.