Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store. Democrats are making a strong drive to flip the House and take several governorships, while the GOP is hoping to pad their majority in the Senate.
What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other five U.S. timezones. And for a quick reference for every competitive contest in the nation, check out our race ratings page. You can also find our guide to this year's ballot measures to watch here.
6 PM ET
Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)
• Indiana: The biggest race in this conservative state is the Senate contest, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is trying to fend off wealthy Republican businessman Mike Braun. Both parties are spending plenty of money here, and there's no clear favorite.
Democrats also have well-funded nominees in both the 2nd and 9th Congressional Districts. However, both seats gave Donald Trump about 60 percent of the vote, and a Democratic win in either would be a huge surprise.
• Kentucky: There's only one competitive House race here, but it's a big one. GOP Rep. Andy Barr holds a seat in the Lexington area that backed Trump 55-39 but the 6th District supports Democrats down the ballot, and he faces a very strong challenge from retired Marine combat pilot Amy McGrath. This contest looks tight, and a Democratic win early in the night will give Team Blue some optimism that they can win other red seats like this one.
7 PM ET
Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
• Florida: As usual, the Sunshine State is playing host to a number of competitive races. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson faces a very expensive challenge from ultra-wealthy GOP Gov. Rick Scott. Meanwhile, Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is trying to become the state's first black governor, as well as the first Democrat to win this office in more than 20 years. Gillum's opponent is former Rep. Ron DeSantis, a loyal Trump ally who infamously began the general election by calling for voters not to "monkey this up." We expect both contests to be tight.
Democrats are also targeting a number of Florida's congressional seats. Their best pickup opportunities are in two Miami area seats, the 27th and the 26th Districts, which each gave Hillary Clinton at least 57 percent of the vote but still often favor Republicans down the ballot. Over in the open 27th, Democrat Donna Shalala, the former president of the University of Miami, has had a tough time fending off former Spanish-language TV journalist María Elvira Salazar in a race that attracted major outside spending in the final month, but Shalala is still favored. In the 26th, Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo faces a very competitive and expensive race against Democratic businesswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Democrats are also going on the offensive in several seats they haven't competed for in a long time. The open 6th District centered around Volusia County went from 52-47 Romney to 57-40 Trump, but Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former national security official in the Clinton administration, has been running a strong campaign against businessman Michael Waltz, and outside groups have been spending to support her in the final weeks.
The open 15th District in the Tampa suburbs backed Trump 53-43 but independent polls show a tight race between Democratic attorney Kristen Carlson and GOP state Rep. Ross Spano, and major national groups directed resources here in the final weeks. Over in the 18th District around Port St. Lucie, freshman Republican Rep. Brian Mast is defending a 53-44 Trump seat from former state Department official Lauren Baer, and outside money also flowed to this seat in the last weeks. Team Blue also has an outside shot against GOP incumbents in the 16th and 25th Districts, but those seats are both uphill climbs.
The only potentially vulnerable Democratic seat in the state is the 7th District in the Orlando suburbs, where Democratic freshman Stephanie Murphy unseated a complacent incumbent in 2016. Murphy faces GOP state Rep. Mike Miller, who has won tough races before. However, Miller has received little help from national Republicans, and it would take a lot for Murphy to lose in this 51-44 Clinton seat.
• Georgia: We have a close race for governor between GOP Secretary of State Brian Kemp and former state House Democratic Leader Stacey Abrams, who would become the first black woman to be elected governor of any state. An unusual Georgia law also introduces more unpredictability into this contest: If no one takes a majority of the vote on Nov. 6, there will be a runoff on Dec. 4. Thanks to the presence of Libertarian Ted Metz, there's a good chance we could head to overtime.
Democrats are also targeting two suburban Atlanta seats that swung hard against Trump in 2016. Republican Rep. Karen Handel won an extremely expensive special election for the 6th District last year, and this time, she faces gun safety activist Lucy McBath. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg's group Everytown for Gun Safety began spending heavily for McBath late in the race, and Handel's allies at the NRCC quickly followed suit. This 48-47 Trump seat is still quite red downballot and Handel is the favorite, but this one looks interesting.
The nearby 7th District moved from 60-38 Romney to a much-smaller 51-45 Trump, but GOP Rep. Rod Woodall is so unworried, he isn't even actively campaigning. Woodall is used to easy wins, but Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux, a professor at George State University, has been a strong fundraiser, and she got some late help from Bloomberg's other super PAC, Independence USA.
• New Hampshire: In the governor's race, polls consistently show Republican incumbent Chris Sununu favored against Democrat Molly Kelly, a former state senator. However, his allies at the Republican Governors Association (RGA) went up with a late TV buy for him, so they may have some last-minute worries.
The Democrats are defending the open 1st District, which narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Trump. But while both parties usually spend massive sums of money to win this district every cycle, there's been little outside spending here this time. Democratic Executive Councilor Chris Pappas has decisively outraised former state Liquor Commission official Eddie Edwards. It would be an unpleasant surprise for Democrats if Pappas had trouble winning in a year where Team Blue is counting on winning swing seats like this one.
• South Carolina: Republican Henry McMaster was elevated to the governor's office in early 2017 when Nikki Haley became Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, and he's the favorite in this conservative state against Democratic state Rep. and Army veteran James Smith. The few polls we've seen have shown McMaster well ahead of Smith.
However, the race for the 1st District along the coast grew surprisingly competitive very late. State Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Rep. Mark Sanford in the June GOP primary, and Sanford is loudly refusing to back her in the general. Democratic attorney Joe Cunningham has also been a strong fundraiser, and he's hit Arrington for being open to drilling off the coast. The NRCC made their first TV buy in the last week of the contest, something they probably didn't expect to do in this 53-40 Trump seat.
• Virginia: Democrats are targeting four GOP-held House seats. The likeliest one to flip is the 10th District in Northern Virginia, where Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is trying to hold onto a suburban seat that backed Clinton 52-42. State Sen. Jennifer Wexton has led in every independent poll, and if she has trouble putting this one away, it could mean an uncomfortably long night for Democrats in other suburban seats.
Two other House contests look very tight. Over in the 2nd District in the coastal Hampton Roads area, freshman GOP Rep. Scott Taylor faces Democrat Elaine Luria, a retired Navy commander, for a swingy seat. Similarly, in the 7th District in the Richmond suburbs, GOP Rep. Dave Brat is in a tough race against former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger. This seat backed Trump 51-44, but Spanberger is another skilled Democratic candidate.
Democrats are also competing for the open 5th District, which includes much of central and southern Virginia. Distillery owner Denver Riggleman got the GOP nod in the spring after Rep. Tom Garrett unexpectedly ended his campaign, and we quickly learned about his … interest … in Bigfoot. Democrats are fielding journalist Leslie Cockburn, who picked up an endorsement from former GOP Sen. John Warner in the final week. This is a tough lift at 53-42 Trump, but major GOP outside groups recently began spending to save it.
7:30 PM ET
North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia
• North Carolina: Democrats are targeting a trio of GOP-held House seats in the Tar Heel State. Their best opportunity looks like the 9th District in the Charlotte area, which became open after pastor Mark Harris unseated Rep. Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary. Democrats have nominated Marine veteran and solar businessman Dan McCready, who has been an impressive fundraiser. This seat backed Trump 54-43, but Harris' far-right social views may cause him problems here, and polls show a tight race.
Over in the 13th District in the Greensboro area, freshman GOP Rep. Ted Budd faces a well-funded Democratic foe in businesswoman Kathy Manning for a 53-44 Trump seat. Team Blue is also making a play against 2nd District Rep. George Holding, who represents a Raleigh-area seat that also went for Trump 53-44. The Democratic nominee is former state Rep. Linda Coleman, who lost competitive races for lieutenant governor in 2012 and 2016. Major outside groups on both sides took an interest in this contest in the final month.
• Ohio: Over in the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown has consistently polled far ahead of GOP Rep. Jim Renacci, who has received little outside support. The contest for governor is much more competitive and features a rematch between two old adversaries. Eight years ago, former GOP Sen. Mike DeWine narrowly unseated Democrat Richard Cordray in the race for state attorney general, and polls show a tight race between them for governor.
Democrats are competing for several GOP-held House seats. Team Blue's best target is the suburban Columbus 12th District, which favored Trump 53-42. Back in August, Republican Troy Balderson narrowly defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor in a special election, and the two are facing off once again. However, the major outside groups that spent so much in the summer have largely stayed out of this race since then, which could indicate that they think Balderson is better positioned now that he's the incumbent.
The 1st District in the Cincinnati-area has attracted plenty of outside spending, but Democrat Aftab Pureval's campaign against GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has had to deal with some bad headlines in the final weeks, and his campaign manager ended up resigning late in the campaign. Democrats also have an outside shot in the 7th, 10th, and 14th Districts.
• West Virginia: Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin is a GOP target in the Senate race, but most polls give the former governor a lead over GOP Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Democrats, meanwhile, are competing for the open 3rd District in the southern coal country. This seat backed Trump 73-23 but many voters still back Democrats for local office. Democratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda has been emphasizing his Army service and is trying to tie GOP Del. Carol Miller to the companies that are causing the opioid crisis, while Miller has made sure to remind voters that Trump backs her.
8 PM ET
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (part of state), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, DC
• Connecticut: In the governor's race, Democrat Dan Malloy is retiring with extremely bad approval ratings, which gives the GOP hope for an upset in this blue state. Team Blue has nominated wealthy businessman Ned Lamont, who lost a high-profile 2006 Senate race as well as the 2010 primary to Malloy. Lamont is outspending GOP businessman Bob Stefanowski, but recent polls show Stefanowski within striking distance. One wild card is independent Oz Griebel, a former Republican who is polling in the high single digits.
• Illinois: Republican incumbent Bruce Rauner has had a very turbulent four years as governor of this blue state and has badly trailed billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker in all the polls. It would be a massive surprise if he held on.
There's more drama in several congressional races. GOP Rep. Peter Roskam is in a tough race to defend the 6th District, an ancestrally red suburban Chicago seat that swung from 53-45 Romney to 50-43 Clinton. The few polls we've seen have shown a tight race between Roskam and Democratic businessman Sean Casten, but Republicans have privately fretted about Roskam's chances.
GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren looks like he's in better shape next door in the 14th District, but he's still unexpectedly facing an expensive battle against nurse and former U.S. Health and Human Services Department advisor Lauren Underwood. This seat moved from 54-44 Romney to 49-45 Trump, and outside groups on both sides recently got very active here.
Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are defending seats in downstate Illinois that moved towards Trump. In the 12th District in the St. Louis area, GOP Rep. Mike Bost faces St. Clair County State's Attorney Brendan Kelly. This seat swung from 50-48 Obama to 55-40 Trump, and while a recent independent poll showed Bost well ahead and even Democratic surveys have given him a small lead, outside groups are still spending here. Next door in the 13th District, GOP Rep. Rodney Davis is defending a seat that moved from a very narrow Romney win to 50-44 Trump. The Democrats are fielding fundraising consultant Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in another contest where major national groups are spending plenty of money.
• Kansas: While Kansas is a very red state, former Gov. Sam Brownback's destructive tax cuts have badly undermined the local GOP brand. The race for governor pits GOP Secretary of State Kris Kobach, whose national voter suppression crusade has earned him Trump's admiration, against Democratic state Sen. Laura Kelly. Independent Greg Orman, who was the de facto Democratic Senate nominee in 2014, is also in, and Democrats are concerned he'll cost Kelly a win in what looks like a tight contest.
The GOP is also on the defensive in two House seats. Rep. Kevin Yoder especially looks to be in serious trouble in the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs. Democrats are fielding attorney Sharice Davids, a former MMA fighter who is hoping to become one of the first Native American women in Congress in a seat that swung from 54-44 Romney to 47-46 Clinton. The NRCC canceled their planned TV reservation here in October in an ominous sign for Yoder, and two independent polls have found him in bad shape.
Over in the open 2nd District in the Topeka area, former state House Democratic Leader Paul Davis faces Army veteran Steve Watkins. While this seat backed Trump 56-37, Davis carried it by 6 points during his unsuccessful 2014 run against Brownback. Watkins has also generated some very bad headlines over some outright lies about his past, and in the final days of the race, a woman publicly accused him of sexual misconduct 12 years ago.
• Maine: GOP Gov. Paul LePage is mercifully termed-out this year, and the few polls we've seen give Democratic Attorney General Janet Mills the lead against wealthy GOP businessman Shawn Moody. However, Democrats fear that independent state Treasurer Terry Hayes, who is a former Democrat, could eat into Mills' support.
Over in the 2nd District, GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin faces a tough challenge from state Rep. and Marine veteran Jared Golden. This rural seat in the northern part of the state moved from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump, but polls show a tight race
One very unpredictable element is the state's new instant-runoff voting system: Voters will be allowed to rank their choices—they get as many votes as there are candidates—and if no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes assigned to their voters' next preferences. (This law does not apply to the governor's race, where it still takes just a simple plurality to win.) Poliquin has not ruled out a lawsuit if he wins more first-choice votes than Golden but the Democrat prevails in the runoff.
• Maryland: Republican Larry Hogan won the 2014 governor race in a surprise, but he's the heavy favorite to win a second term in this blue state despite Trump's unpopularity. Hogan began this race with good approval ratings, and he and his allies at the RGA have dramatically outspent former NAACP head Ben Jealous. The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) launched their first ad two weeks ahead of Election Day—likely too little, too late.
• Michigan: This is another governor's office that Democrats have a strong chance of flipping. Polls consistently give former state Senate Democratic Leader Gretchen Whitmer the lead over Attorney General Bill Schuette, and the Republican's campaign is in such bad financial shape that they had to pull much of their advertising in the final week.
A number of GOP-held House seats are also in play. The best Democratic pickup opportunity looks like the open 11th District, a 50-45 Trump seat in the Detroit area. Most major GOP outside groups have done little to aid businesswoman Lena Epstein, though Team Blue is still spending to help former Obama administration official Haley Stevens. Meanwhile, polls have consistently shown a close race in the Lansing-area 8th District between GOP Rep. Mike Bishop and former Defense Department official Elissa Slotkin.
Democrats are also targeting longtime Rep. Fred Upton in the 6th District, a Kalamazoo-area seat that backed Trump 51-43. Upton has decisively won this seat every cycle since 1986, but physician Matt Longjohn is a stronger-than-usual foe. Democrats have released polls giving Upton a small lead, and outside groups on both sides got involved here late in the contest. Democrats also have well-funded nominees in the 1st and 7th Districts, but both seats are very red and a win in either would be a surprise.
• Mississippi: Longtime GOP Sen. Thad Cochran resigned in the spring due to health issues, and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to replace him in the Senate. Hyde-Smith, who has Trump's endorsement, is running in an officially nonpartisan special election, and in the likely event that no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff on Nov. 27.
The main Democratic candidate is former Rep. Mike Espy, a former agriculture secretary under Bill Clinton. The other notable Republican is state Sen. Chris McDaniel, whose tea party-fueled campaign almost beat Cochran in the 2014 runoff. However, McDaniel has attracted little money or outside support, and polls show Hyde-Smith and Espy advancing to a runoff. Republicans would be favored to keep this seat in this red state.
• Missouri: Democrat Claire McCaskill is one of the GOP's top Senate targets in a state that has been drifting right in recent years. McCaskill faces a tough challenge from GOP Attorney General Josh Hawley, and most recent polling shows her trailing by a few points. Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting 2nd District GOP Rep. Ann Wagner in suburban St. Louis. Law professor Cort VanOstran has raised a credible amount of money, but he has a tough task against the well-financed Wagner in this 53-42 Trump seat.
• New Jersey: The Senate contest is an expensive battle between Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez and wealthy former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin. Menendez spent two years under indictment on corruption charges, but the Justice Department ended up dropping the case less than a year ago after a jury failed to reach a verdict. New Jersey is a blue state and polls consistently show Menendez ahead, but national Democrats have been spending money here to counter heavy self-funding by Hugin.
Democrats are also competing for a number of GOP-held House seats. The GOP abandoned their incredibly weak nominee in the open 2nd District long ago, so Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew should have little trouble flipping it. Retired Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill is also making a strong play for the open 11th District, an ancestrally red northern New Jersey seat that only narrowly backed Trump, and polls give her the lead against GOP Assemblyman Jay Webber. Major GOP outside groups also haven't been advertising here.
Team Blue is also running strong campaigns against two Republican incumbents. While South Jersey’s 3rd District swung from 52-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump, polls show a close race between GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur and former national security official Andy Kim. Major outside groups on both sides are also spending heavily here. The 7th District in the central part of the state moved the opposite direction from 53-46 Romney to 49-48 Clinton, and we also have an expensive contest here between GOP Rep. Leonard Lance and former State Department official Tom Malinowski. Recent polls give Malinowski the edge.
• North Dakota: Democrat Heidi Heitkamp won a miracle 2012 victory in the Senate race, but polls consistently find her badly trailing GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer in her bid for a second term.
• Oklahoma: GOP Gov. Mary Fallin is leaving office with horrific approval ratings due to the state's miserable budget situation, but Democrats will still need a lot to go right to win the governor's race. Polls consistently give Republican businessman Kevin Stitt a small lead over former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Over in the Oklahoma City area, the 5th District is a longshot Democratic pickup opportunity. Independence USA launched a large TV buy in the final week to support nonprofit director Kendra Horn’s campaign against GOP Rep. Steve Russell in this 53-40 Trump seat.
• Pennsylvania: Earlier this year, the state Supreme Court scrapped the GOP's congressional gerrymander and implemented a much fairer map. Democrats should have little trouble picking up two open seats in the Philadelphia suburbs, the 5th and 6th Districts. The new map also threw two Pittsburgh-area incumbents, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb and GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus, into the same 17th District. However, while the new seat narrowly backed Trump, national Republicans abandoned Rothfus long ago.
Democrats are on the offensive in several other seats. Their best opportunity looks like the open 7th District in the Lehigh Valley. While this seat narrowed from 53-46 Obama to just 49-48 Clinton, national Republicans have not been happy with GOP Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein and have done little to aid him against former Allentown solicitor Susan Wild. Polls have consistently shown Wild ahead.
The 1st District in the Philadelphia suburbs is a tougher target. While both Obama and Clinton narrowly won here, GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has worked hard to present himself as a moderate and win over local labor groups. The Democratic nominee is attorney and philanthropist Scott Wallace, and several polls show the two locked in a competitive race.
Democrats are also making a strong effort for another pair of redder GOP-held seats. The 10th District in the Harrisburg area backed Trump 52-43, but recent polls give hard-right Rep. Scott Perry only a small lead over pastor and Army veteran George Scott, and outside groups have started spending here. The Erie-based 16th District went from 52-47 Romney to a tough 58-38 Trump, but the DCCC has been airing ads to aid attorney Ron DiNicola against GOP Rep. Mike Kelly.
The only Democratic incumbent who may have anything to worry about is Rep. Matt Cartwright, whose Scranton-area 8th District swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-44 Trump. The GOP is fielding former JP Morgan managing director John Chrin, who has poured plenty of his own money into this race but doesn't seem to be gaining traction. While the NRCC aired ads here in September they never returned with more, and recent polls give Cartwright a comfortable lead.
• Rhode Island: Democrat Gina Raimondo defeated GOP Cranston Mayor Allan Fung 41-35 in the 2014 governor's race, and Fung is seeking a rematch. However, while Raimondo has never been especially popular, she's the favorite going into Election Day. Recent polls find her well ahead of Fung, especially with conservative independent Joe Trillo eating into his support. Fung's allies at the RGA stopped airing ads in the final weeks of the campaign, which is also not a good sign for him.
• South Dakota: Democrats last won the governor's race here in 1974, but this could be the year everything changes. State Senate Democratic Leader Billie Sutton has run ads promoting his compelling background: He's a former rodeo star—in a state that loves the sport—who was left paralyzed from the waist down after a rodeo accident a decade ago yet is still able to ride horses thanks to a special saddle. GOP Rep. Kristi Noem, who represents the entire state in the House, has run ads tying Sutton to national Democrats, but it may not be enough even in this red state. Recent independent polling shows a tight race, though Noem retains the edge thanks to the state’s lean.
• Tennessee: Former Gov. Phil Bredesen is almost certainly the strongest nominee Democrats could have fielded for this open Senate race, but he’s still the underdog in this very red state. Most polls give GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn the lead, but outside groups on both sides are still pouring money into this race, so they may see a closer fight.
• Texas: The race that has of course generated most of the attention in the Lone Star State is the Senate battle between GOP incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Most polls give Cruz the advantage, though Democrats are hoping that a favorable political climate and O'Rourke's very well-financed campaign will help them turn out less-likely voters.
Team Blue is also trying to flip several House seats, many for the first time in a very long time. The big targets are GOP Rep. John Culberson's 7th District in the Houston suburbs and GOP Rep. Pete Sessions' 32nd District in the Dallas area, both of which went decisively for Romney but narrowly for Clinton. The Democrats are fielding attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and NFL player-turned-civil rights attorney Colin Allred, respectively. Most polls show a close race in each seat, and they've also been magnets for national party spending.
The battle between GOP Rep. Will Hurd and former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones in the 23rd District, which stretches from San Antonio west to the outskirts of El Paso, is also one to watch. While Clinton won 50-46 here, polls have consistently shown Hurd well ahead. However, while the NRCC canceled all their TV reservations in October, they went back up in the final week in what could be a sign that this race has tightened.
Democrats are also fielding credible candidates in the open 2nd and 21st Districts, while Air Force veteran MJ Hegar has raised plenty of money for her bid against GOP Rep. John Carter in the 31st. However, while all these seats moved somewhat to the left at the presidential level in 2016, Trump still carried each by at least a 9-point margin, so a Democratic win in any of them would be a welcome surprise.
8:30 PM ET
• Arkansas: The race to watch here will be for the 2nd District in the Little Rock area. GOP Rep. French Hill faces a strong challenge from Democratic state Rep. Clarke Tucker, and Democratic groups have been airing ads here. However, the few polls we've seen have shown Hill well ahead, and at 52-42 Trump, this is a tough one for Team Blue.
9 PM ET
Arizona, Colorado, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming
• Arizona: The open Senate race between GOP Rep. Martha McSally and Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema takes center stage, and polls show a very competitive contest. However, the contest for governor looks very different. GOP incumbent Doug Ducey and the RGA have massively outspent Democratic university professor David Garcia, and Team Red is far ahead in the polls.
Democrats look primed to flip McSally's open 2nd District in the Tucson area. While national Republicans were initially excited about businesswoman Lea Marquez Peterson and tried to portray former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented the neighboring 1st District until her unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid, as a carpetbagger, they seem to have given up on holding this 50-45 Clinton seat.
Over in the 1st District, freshman Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran faces Air Force veteran and perennial candidate Wendy Rogers. This northern Arizona seat narrowly backed both Romney and Trump and the DCCC spent $1 million on ads against Rogers in September, but they haven't been on the air in a month. Rogers and her allies have released polls showing her tied or even ahead of O'Halleran, but GOP outside groups don't seem convinced, since they never spent anything here.
• Colorado: Democrats are looking to win their fourth consecutive race to for governor in this light-blue state, and polls consistently give wealthy Rep. Jared Polis a lead over GOP state Treasurer Walker Stapleton.
The GOP is also having problems defending the 6th District in suburban Denver. While GOP Rep. Mike Coffman decisively won in 2016 as Clinton was carrying his seat 50-41, national Republicans have canceled their TV buys as polls show Coffman badly trailing Army veteran Jason Crow. Democrats are also eyeing the 3rd District in the western part of the state, but this 52-40 Trump seat is a tough lift.
• Minnesota: The Land of 10,000 Lakes is hosting a special Senate race for the final two years of Al Franken's term, and polls consistently give appointed Democratic incumbent Tina Smith a lead over GOP state Sen. Karin Housley. However, national Democratic groups began running ads here for the first time in the final week of the contest in a possible sign this has gotten closer, though GOP groups haven't followed suit.
The race to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Mark Dayton as governor is looking even more lopsided. National Republicans were upset when Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson beat former Gov. Tim Pawlenty in the primary, and they went on to cancel all the ads they'd reserved here. Polls also consistently find Democratic Rep. Tim Walz ahead.
Minnesota has several congressional races to watch, and it’s a rare state where the House GOP has some solid offensive opportunities. The best Republican pickup opportunity in the nation is likely the open 8th District in the Iron Range in the northeast, where Team Red is excited about St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber's prospects against former state Rep. Joe Radinovich. This ancestrally blue seat backed Trump 54-39, and national Democrats ominously redirected money to other seats in October.
Walz's open 1st District in the southern part of the state also backed Trump by a similar margin, but it's looking more competitive. A recent poll gave former Defense Department official Dan Feehan a small lead over Republican businessman and perennial candidate Jim Hagedorn, and both national parties are continuing to pour ad money into this seat as the GOP defends its desperate anti-Semitic ads.
Republicans haven't spent much against veteran Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson in the rural 7th District, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Peterson only dispatched underfunded candidate Dave Hughes in 2016 52-47 as Trump was winning 62-31 here—making this the reddest seat in the nation held by a Democrat—and Hughes is back for a rematch.
Democrats are trying to unseat two GOP incumbents in the Twin Cities suburbs. While GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen decisively won re-election in 3rd District even as Clinton was carrying the seat 51-41, he faces a much tougher challenge from businessman Dean Phillips. However, while some September polls showed Paulsen in bad shape, both parties are still spending plenty here. In the neighboring 2nd District, Republican Jason Lewis won a tight 2016 open seat race against former healthcare executive Angie Craig as Trump was narrowly winning here, and Craig, too, is back for a rematch. While some polls have found Craig well ahead, this is another race that's still attracted plenty of national spending.
• Nebraska: Democrats hoped to target GOP Rep. Don Bacon in the 2nd District, an Omaha seat Trump narrowly carried. However, polls have Bacon leading nonprofit president Kara Eastman and national Democrats have redirected their resources elsewhere, though some GOP groups are still spending here.
• New Mexico: The open seat race for governor pits Democratic Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham against GOP colleague Steve Pearce. New Mexico is a Democratic-leaning state, and termed-out GOP Gov. Susana Martinez hasn't been popular in years, which gives Team Blue the advantage. Polls have consistently shown Lujan Grisham ahead, though some surveys have Pearce in striking distance.
The race to succeed Pearce in the 2nd District in the southern part of the state has become a very competitive affair. While Trump won 50-40 here, attorney Xochitl Torres Small is running a strong campaign against GOP state Rep. Yvette Herrell, and this race has attracted plenty of national spending.
• New York: Empire State Democrats are hoping to flip several GOP-held House seats. The most competitive seats look like the 19th District in the Upper Hudson Valley and the 22nd District, which includes Utica and Binghamton. GOP Rep. John Faso is trying to defend the swingy 19th against attorney Antonio Delgado. Polls show a tight race and both parties are spending heavily here, with the GOP airing a barrage of racist ads against Delgado, who is black. The 22nd went for Trump 55-39 after only narrowly backing Romney, but freshman GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney faces a strong challenge from Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi in another contest that has attracted a good deal of outside spending.
Democrats are going after several other GOP-held seats, but they're all tougher targets. The fight for the 11th District, which includes all of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, pits GOP Rep. Dan Donovan against Army veteran Max Rose. This seat backed Trump 54-44 and outside groups haven't spent much here, but Rose has been a very strong fundraiser and an October poll gave Donovan only a small lead. Over in the 24th District in the Syracuse area, GOP Rep. John Katko is facing local visiting professor and progressive activist Dana Balter for a seat that moved from 57-41 Obama to just 49-45 Clinton. Balter has been a strong fundraiser and national groups are spending here on both sides, but a recent poll found Katko well ahead.
The 27th District in the Buffalo area would normally be safe GOP territory at 60-35 Trump, but it got a lot more interesting after GOP Rep. Chris Collins was indicted on insider trading charges over the summer. Collins ended up running again after he couldn't get his name off the ballot, and it's given Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray an opening. Recent polls show a tight race.
Democrats are also fielding well-funded candidates against GOP incumbents in the 1st District, the 21st District, and the 23rd District. This trio of seats each backed Obama or narrowly supported Romney in 2012 before going for Trump by double digits in 2016, and outside groups haven't spent much in any of them, so a Democratic win in any would be a big upset.
• Wisconsin: While Republicans hoped early in the cycle to target Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race, they ended up focusing on other contests, and polls show her far ahead of GOP state Sen. Leah Vukmir. The race for governor, though, is still very competitive. Republican incumbent Scott Walker faces state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers. Walker and his allies have outspent Evers, but it may not be enough for once. Several surveys have given Evers the lead, though the respected Marquette poll found a tie in the final week.
Democrats also hope to flip two House seats. The race to succeed retiring Speaker Paul Ryan in the 1st District in the south pits GOP attorney Bryan Steil against ironworker Randy Bryce. Bryce is hoping his blue-collar background will help him win over voters in this 53-42 Trump seat, while the GOP has been running ads hitting Bryce's personal life. Over in the 6th District in the Fond du Lac area, GOP Rep. Glenn Grothman faces former Milwaukee Bucks assistant general manager Dan Kohl, a nephew of former Sen. Herb Kohl. This seat went for Trump 56-39 but Democratic groups recently began spending money here, and Grothman reportedly is worried that the contest is "tightening."
10 PM ET
Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah (Note that while a small portion of eastern Oregon closes at this hour, we won’t see many votes until the rest of the state closes an hour later.)
• Iowa: Republican Kim Reynolds became governor after Terry Branstad was appointed as Trump's ambassador to China, and she faces a tough challenge from wealthy businessman Fred Hubbell. While the last two election cycles have been brutal for Iowa Democrats, there are signs that this traditional swing state is snapping back to the left this cycle. Unfortunately, though, we’ve seen almost no polling of this race.
Democrats are also trying to unseat all three of Iowa's GOP House members. Their best target is Rep. Rod Blum in the 1st District in the east. Blum faces a tough challenge from state Rep. Abby Finkenauer even though this seat swung from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump, and his own behavior hasn't helped his chances. However, while major GOP groups left Blum for dead for most of the race, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which has ties to House GOP leaders, began spending here in October for the first time, and Democrats also devoted more money to this seat.
The 3rd District in the Des Moines area is very swingy territory, and we're expecting a close race between GOP Rep. David Young and businesswoman Cindy Axne. This is another race that’s gotten a lot of outside attention.
By contrast, white supremacist Rep. Steve King looked safe in the western 4th District, which backed Trump 61-34, until recently. However, even King's longtime allies and contributors distanced themselves from King in the aftermath of the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre, and Democrat J.D. Scholten has had the airwaves to himself for weeks. King did not take this campaign seriously until the final days, when he finally decided to run his first ads. A King loss in a seat this red would be a huge surprise, but it's a welcome possibility.
• Montana: The Senate race pits Democratic incumbent Jon Tester against GOP state Auditor Matt Rosendale. There has been plenty of outside spending but very little reliable polling in this conservative state, and it's hard to know where this important contest stands. As for the state's At-Large District, GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte faces a well-funded challenge from former Democratic state Rep. Kathleen Williams. Gianforte infamously assaulted a reporter on the eve of his 2017 special election win, and Williams has been running ads using audio of the attack.
• Nevada: This swing state hosts a very expensive Senate battle between GOP incumbent Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen. It's a similar story in the race for governor, where far-right Attorney General Adam Laxalt faces Democratic Clark County Commission Chair Steve Sisolak. Both races look tight.
Democrats are also defending two House seats in the Las Vegas area. In Rosen's open 3rd District, which very narrowly backed both Obama and Trump, education activist and philanthropist Susie Lee faces wealthy GOP perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. There has been little reliable polling here, and major outside groups have spent millions here.
Meanwhile, the open 4th District looks better for Democrats. Clinton won 50-45 here, and while national Republicans were excited that former Rep. Cresent Hardy decided to try to regain his former seat after losing it in a tight 2016 race, they ended up redirecting their resources elsewhere. The Democrats are fielding former Rep. Steven Horsford, who lost to Hardy in an upset during the 2014 GOP wave, though outside Democratic groups continued to spend here even after the GOP pulled out.
• Utah: The race to watch is the battle for the 4th District in the Salt Lake City area between GOP Rep. Mia Love and Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams. Both candidates are well-known, and several recent polls show a tight race. While this area usually favors Republicans, Trump won just 39-32 here, with conservative independent Evan McMullin taking 22 percent.
11 PM ET
California, Hawaii, Oregon (rest of state), Washington
• California: The Senate race is an all-Democratic fight between Sen. Dianne Feinstein and state Sen. Kevin de Leon. While de Leon hoped to channel progressive anger at the longtime incumbent, he's had trouble raising money in this extremely expensive state. Polls consistently give Feinstein the lead, though they disagree quite a bit on how far she's ahead.
California is another big state where Democrats are hoping to scoop up House seats. The open 49th District in the San Diego area is the likeliest seat to turn blue, particularly since the GOP abandoned state Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey long ago in the face of bad poll numbers and weak fundraising against attorney Mike Levin.
We have competitive and expensive contests for several other House seats. The 10th District in the Central Valley narrowly backed both Obama and Clinton, and there's no clear favorite between GOP Rep. Jeff Denham and venture capitalist Josh Harder. To the south in the 25th District in northern Los Angeles County, we also have a tight contest between GOP Rep. Steve Knight and nonprofit director Katie Hill for a seat that backed Clinton 50-44.
Republicans are defending another three seats in Orange County that flipped from Romney to Clinton: The diverse 39th District around Fullerton pits former GOP Assemblywoman Young Kim against Navy veteran and 2010 lottery winner Gil Cisneros; the 45th District in the Irvine area is a faceoff between GOP incumbent Mimi Walters against UC Irvine professor Katie Porter; and the 48th District around Newport Beach features GOP Rep. and Putin ally Dana Rohrabacher against real estate company owner Harley Rouda. At 48-46 Clinton this is actually one of the redder seats that Democrats are targeting, but Rohrabacher has proven to be an unimpressive fundraiser who has found creative ways to draw lots of negative attention.
Democrats have a few other California targets, but they're all in tough seats. The 50th District in the San Diego area backed Trump 55-40, but it became competitive after GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter was indicted for allegedly spending campaign funds on his personal uses. Hunter has resorted to running Islamophobic ads against former U.S. Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar, a Christian of Mexican and Palestinian descent.
Swinging back to the north is the 21st District in the Central Valley, where GOP Rep. David Valadao faces engineer TJ Cox. While this seat backed Clinton 55-40, Democrats have struggled to turn out their base of Latino voters in midterm years. But while Valadao still is favored, both parties began airing more ads here in the final days of the race, which could indicate it's getting closer. Democrats are also fielding well-funded candidates against Rep. Tom McClintock in the 4th District and Rep. Devin Nunes in the 22nd District, but both seats are quite red.
• Oregon: The GOP hasn't won the governor's office since the 1982 election, but state Rep. Knute Buehler is running a well-financed campaign against Democratic incumbent Kate Brown. Brown has held narrow leads in recent polls.
• Washington: Democrats are targeting three GOP-held House seats. Their best pickup opportunity is in the open 8th District in the Seattle suburbs, which narrowly backed both Obama and Clinton. Former GOP state Sen. Dino Rossi, who has lost a number of high-profile statewide races, faces pediatrician Kim Schrier in one of the most expensive House races in the nation.
The 3rd District along the Oregon border looked secure for GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler until recently. However, political science professor Carolyn Long has been a strong fundraiser, and major outside groups on both sides began airing ads in this 50-43 Trump seat in the final weeks. The 5th District around Spokane is even redder turf at 52-39 Trump, but Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who is a senior member of the House GOP leadership, faces a well-funded foe in former Washington State University Spokane chancellor Lisa Brown.
12 AM ET
• Alaska (most of state): Former GOP state Sen. Mike Dunleavy was the clear favorite in the race for governor until mid-October, when independent Gov. Bill Walker dropped out and endorsed former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. There has been little polling here since Walker (who will still be on the ballot) exited the race, but the few numbers we've seen show a close race in this red state.
Longtime GOP Rep. Don Young also faces a serious opponent in the race for the state's At-Large District. A court decision earlier this year allowed schools advocate Alyse Galvin to seek the Democratic nomination while still remaining an independent, and she'll be identified on the ballot both as unaffiliated and as the Democratic nominee. Polls have given Young a small but possibly narrowing lead.
1 AM ET
Alaska (rest of state)
It's going to be an exciting election night from 6 PM ET to the wee hours of the morning, and we'll be liveblogging every bit of it at Daily Kos Elections. See you there!
