Happy almost Election Day!
A week from today, the world will be a different place.
Well, technically that’s true every day.
But that’s going to be, like, super true next Thursday.
Because after Tuesday, we’ll know if Democrats are legit on their way back to power at the state legislative level.
… actually we already kinda know that they are.
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After all, you don’t flip a Washington legislative chamber (and create a Democratic trifecta) and pick up 15 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates—all in a single night—without being on the upswing.
And you don’t dramatically overperform in 80 special elections over the course of the cycle if things aren’t looking generally positive for your party.
The question on Tuesday isn’t whether or not Democrats are going to have some success on the state legislative level.
Rather, it’s whether or not Democrats can overcome the many obstacles stacked against them—GOP gerrymandering, voter suppression laws, and being outspent by the other side—to have the kind of success that will boost the health of the party overall for years to come.
I Feel Fine: With just a few days to go, I have super minor tweaks to make to my state legislative chamber ratings.
- The chambers most likely to flip haven't really moved, but I do want to shift two more chambers out of the LOL No Chance In Hell category to Hey, It’s A Bananas Long Shot But If Dems Run The Table category.
- Er, I mean Safe R to Likely R.
- Those chambers are the Michigan state Senate and the Kentucky state House.
Here’s an updated chart:
You can find the full list of chambers (and their respective flippability ratings) here.
In the end, I think Democrats are well-positioned to [[plants flag]] pick up majorities in five to eight chambers on Tuesday.
Strange Currencies: One of those obstacles I mentioned above as getting in the way of Democratic success in state legislative races is fundraising.
If it does shock you … well, you should get out more.
- Republicans spending tons of money on state legislative election is nothing new.
- In every cycle since 2008 (likely longer tbh), Republicans have outspent Democrats.
- In some years, this results in Democrats losing majorities in lots of chambers, like it did in 2010 and 2014.
- In other years, Democrats get outspent and pick up chambers anyway, like they did in 2012 and 2016.
- Still, the fundraising news for Democrats at the state legislative level has been pretty universally good this cycle. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party organization committed to electing Democrats to state legislatures, is spending $35 million this cycle—a good $15 million or so more than any previous cycle—and recently reported setting an all-time record in fundraising.
- And while one organization recently pushed the OMG BREAKING news of Republicans outraising Democrats in “key races” in six chambers … well, that’s not really the whole story.
- First of all, let’s take the Texas House.
- Republicans are outraising Democrats three to one? Hell, given their power in the state and their grip on a chamber that’s not reasonably flippable this year, it’s pretty good news they’re outraising Dems only three to one.
- Let’s turn to a chamber that’s in play on Tuesday: the Arizona Senate.
- Republicans are reportedly outraising Democrats in five “key races” by a more than two-to-one margin.
- Okay, not great.
- Again, though, not really new.
- Frankly, I’m more concerned about spending in Michigan state House races, where GOP money is reportedly flowing away from Republican Bill Schuette’s losing campaign for governor to the better investment of protecting Republican majorities in the legislature.
- Another important part of the money story in these elections is independent expenditure operations, which exist in many states and can play outsized roles, depending on a given state’s campaign finance laws.
tl;dr: Generally speaking, Republicans will outspend Democrats in state legislative elections yet again this cycle, but by an order of magnitude less than in pretty much every other election over the past decade. And Democrats will flip chambers anyway.
Losing My Religion: Republicans, sadly, are no strangers to incorporating hate and bigotry into their campaigns.
- In the wake of the anti-Semitic murders in Pittsburgh, though, it’s especially disgusting that GOP candidates would resort to such hateful extremes.
- But they are.
- In Connecticut, a mailer targeting Democratic state Senate candidate Matt Lesser, who is Jewish, depicted him, in caricature form, grinning maniacally while holding a fistful of $100 bills near his face.
- Democrats immediately decried the obvious anti-Jewish stereotype.
- After originally dismissing criticism of the mailer as partisan, even the state Republican Party chairman was forced to admit that the image was “offensive” and raised “classic anti-Semitic tropes.”
- In Pennsylvania, a sitting member of the legislature released a video targeting his opponent, Sara Johnson Rothman, who has used her both her maiden and husband’s names since marrying her husband, Scott Rothman, who is Jewish.
- In the video, a narrator claims that "Sara Johnson Rothman … wants to drastically raise our income taxes."
- At the end of the ad, a digitally altered image of Johnson Rothman shows her holding a stack of $100 bills as the text "Reject Sara Rothman," is superimposed on the picture—quite unnecessarily dropping her maiden name.
Ugh.
Welp, that’s all for this week.
And until the other side of the election.
Tune in next Thursday for a full rundown of statehouse wins, losses, what matters, what doesn’t, and what it all means for 2019, 2020, and beyond.
(And tune into the Daily Kos Election Night Tracker to keep up with results and/or to NowThis on Facebook on Tuesday night if you want to see me talk about said results.)
You should take the rest of the week off to vote early or canvass or Drive Shiny Happy People to the polls. Just print this out and show it to your boss, I know she won’t mind.