Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-25: In another glaring failure to properly vet surrogates appearing in campaign ads, Republican Rep. Steve Knight has been airing a spot featuring a veteran, David Brayton, who, it turns out, has a nasty history of posting racist and anti-Semitic screeds online, as well as violent threats against journalists and liberal protesters. One example: Commenting on a yellow Star of David with the German word "Jude," Brayton offered, "Perhaps all Jews on television should wear the 'sign' in this last photo … just to make sure the audience knows … wink wink."
More appalling, though, is the response of the Knight campaign: A spokesperson said the congressman wouldn't take down the ad and declared, "I think the timing of this is ridiculous." Yet another Republican campaign embracing anti-Semites, even in the wake of the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre. We wish we could say we were shocked.
Senate
● MT-Sen: Or not. Libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge now says that a) he didn't drop out of Montana's Senate race and b) he didn't endorse Republican Matt Rosendale, because, well, Libertarian. Despite reports saying he'd done exactly this on Wednesday, Breckenridge told the libertarian website Reason "I am not dropping out" and insisted he only "endorsed" Rosendale insofar as he thinks the Republican is aligned with him on eliminating dark money from politics. (This is … probably not the case.)
Either way, Breckenridge's antics are unlikely to make a difference. He'll be on the ballot no matter what, and a large proportion of Montana voters have already cast ballots.
● WV-Sen: On Thursday, the conservative Senate Leadership Fund confirmed to the Washington Post that, while it was still adding money to TV buys in other contests, it wasn't airing TV ads in West Virginia for the final week of the race. This is not a good sign for Republican Patrick Morrisey, who has trailed Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in almost every poll, and who Republicans have privately said is behind.
Last week, Politico reported that the SLF had yet to reserve anything for the final days. The NRCC quickly released an internal poll showing Morrisey leading Manchin 44-42, but if it was doing this to convince the SLF that this seat remained a good investment, it didn't work. Donald Trump, who remains popular here, is still set to campaign for Morrisey on Friday, and Manchin's allies at Senate Majority PAC are still running ads, so not everyone is acting like Manchin has this. Still, the SLF's decision to go quiet on TV in the critical final days speaks volumes.
● Polls: Is there an election coming up soon?
- AZ-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46, Martha McSally (R) 46 (early Oct.: 47-45 Sinema)
- AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R) for ABC15: McSally (R): 52, Sinema (D): 45 (early Oct.: 47-41 McSally)
- FL-Sen: Cygnal (R): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50, Rick Scott (R): 48
- FL-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47
- FL-Sen: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47 (Oct. 20-21: 49-48 Scott)
- FL-Sen: Trafalgar (R): Nelson (D-inc): 49, Scott (R): 47
- IN-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 45, Mike Braun (R): 38, Lucy Brenton (L): 5 (early Oct.: 43-41-6 Donnelly)
- IN-Sen: Marist for NBC: Donnelly (D): 43, Braun (R): 40, Brenton (L): 9 (Aug.: 44-41-8 Donnelly)
- MO-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 43, Josh Hawley (R): 43 (early Oct.: 43-43 tie)
- ND-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Kevin Cramer (R): 51, Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): 42 (early Oct.: 53-41 Cramer)
- OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 52, Jim Renacci (R): 42
- TN-Sen: Anderson Robbins (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Marsha Blackburn (R): 50, Phil Bredesen (D): 41 (early Oct.: 48-43 Blackburn)
- TN-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Blackburn (R): 49, Bredesen (D): 45 (mid-Oct.: 44-43 Bredesen)
- WV-Sen: Research America for MetroNews: Joe Manchin (D-inc): 45, Patrick Morrisey (R): 40, Rusty Hollen (L): 11 (Aug.: 46-38 Manchin)
In Arizona, OH's poll is the best for McSally since … OH's last poll, a month ago. Otherwise, she's never led by more than 2 points.
In Indiana, this pair of surveys are the most positive Donnelly's seen in several weeks, though the Fox poll is probably far too rosy. The last time we saw Donnelly up was in a SurveyUSA poll in mid-October that had him ahead just 41-40.
It's a similar story for McCaskill in Missouri. She hasn't so much as found herself in a tie since Fox's last poll, a month ago, and her last lead was shortly before that, a CNN poll that had her ahead 47-44. Otherwise, Hawley's been leading for the last month.
The one Democrat who didn't get any good news is Bredesen in Tennessee. The only pollster in a month to give him any kind of lead was SSRS, and now that's gone.
Finally, the West Virginia result is one of the closest we've seen from an independent outfit, though the Libertarian's vote share is weirdly high. Hollen's best previous showing was 8, but in the few times he's been included, he's usually clocked in at 2 or 3. Also, this poll had a very long 12-day field period. That's never great, but it's especially problematic this close to an election, when many voters are only just now tuning in.
We also have an addendum to a recent item we wrote on Ipsos' polls for Reuters and the University of Virginia. We had previously questioned why Ipsos' polls included so few independents, but the firm explains that there wasn't a "lack of independents in our polling; rather, they're there, but we include independent leaners with the party that they lean toward. " They explain their reasoning here.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: Republican Walker Stapleton has never led Democrat Jared Polis in a single public poll of Colorado's open gubernatorial race, and two new surveys are no different. A poll from a trio of Democratic firms (Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs, and Martin Campaigns) finds Polis up 50-42, while Republican pollster Magellan Strategies has Polis ahead 45-40, little different from his 47-40 edge early last month.
However, a pro-Stapleton group, Better Colorado Now, isn't giving up and has placed a $750,000 TV buy for the final days of the race. Overall, outside Republican groups have spent slightly more than their Democratic counterparts in this race, $12 million to $10.6 million. However, thanks to some $23 million in self-funding, Polis has massively outspent Stapleton, whose total campaign outlays stand at around $4 million.
● CT-Gov: The Republican Governors Association is spending $3 million on TV ads in a final push to help Republican Bob Stefanowski beat Democrat Ned Lamont and pick up Connecticut's open governorship, but that money won't necessarily go all that far since it's getting devoted to the New York City media market, the priciest in the nation. About a quarter of the state's population lives in this market (the rest is covered by Hartford), and this slice is actually somewhat bluer than the state as a whole: According to Daily Kos Elections' calculations, the portion of Connecticut in the New York City market voted for Hillary Clinton 58-38, while Clinton's overall statewide margin was a narrower 55-41.
In other words, the RGA is searching for votes in the part of the state where it's the costliest and they’re the least likely to be found. Including this latest buy, the committee has spent a total of $7.5 million on this race and is reportedly expected to purchase more advertising in Hartford as well, though there's very little time left to do so: Democratic media strategist Kelly Grace Gibson explains that Friday is realistically the last day you can add more airtime before Election Day.
● GA-Gov: In a rare foray onto the campaign trail, Oprah Winfrey went down to Georgia on Thursday to headline a pair of rallies with Democrat Stacey Abrams. While Winfrey vocally supported Barack Obama, she says she is a registered independent, and she maintains a unique appeal that stretches far outside the realm of politics: A Marist poll earlier this year gave her a 64-23 favorability rating with registered voters, and even a 43-44 score with self-identified "Trump supporters."
Meanwhile, Vice President Mike Pence was also in the Peach State, campaigning for Republican Brian Kemp. Doing a rather feeble Ron Burgundy impression, Pence sniffed, "I'd like to remind Stacey and Oprah and Will Ferrell, I'm kind of a big deal, too." Sure you are, buddy.
● ME-Gov: Democrat Janet Mills is going up with her first TV ad hitting Republican Shawn Moody over a mid-October New York Times story that reported that he had settled a sex discrimination complaint in 2006 filed with the state human rights commission by a former employee. She also uses the ad to respond to a recent GOP attack ad.
Mills first tells the audience that Moody is lying about her, and she declares that she's a mother who has "prosecuted hundreds of sex offenders," and that the Republican is "exploiting a tragic case involving children to win an election." That's a reference to a spot from the state GOP that hit Mills, who serves as state attorney general, for a case that she settled this year with a former sheriff's deputy named Kenneth Hatch who was accused of sexually abusing three teenage girls.
A jury found Hatch not guilty on some of the charges and couldn't reach a verdict on the rest, and Mills' office ended up reaching a deal where Hatch pleaded guilty to a single misdemeanor. The judge said that a new trial would be "very difficult," and the Bangor Daily News reported at the time that the attorney general's office unsuccessfully sought some jail time for Hatch as part of the plea deal. However, the GOP ad makes it sound like Mills just let Hatch off easy.
Mills then uses her ad to say Moody is lying about her "to cover up what he's really about." A narrator then jumps in and declares that Moody "doesn't want us to know that he would deny women the right to choose, or that he showed up in a woman's house and fired her just for having a baby."
The recent Times story said that a Moody employee named Jill Hayward claimed that, when she was on maternity leave in 2005, Moody visited her apartment and told her she couldn't handle her job duties at his automobile repair store because she had recently become a single mother. Moody ultimately settled the case for $20,000 in exchange for Hayward withdrawing her complaint, but she stood by her accusation when the New York Times investigated.
Moody's allies at the state Republican Party quickly went up with a response ad. The commercial doesn't refer to the Times story or Mills' ad and instead argues that Moody is a compassionate businessman who never forgot having to go to work after his single mom was hospitalized. The narrator then declares that Moody's company pays women "above the national average" and features one of his employees saying that he gives young mothers like her the opportunity to succeed.
The state GOP is also continuing its strategy of trying to divert progressive voters towards independent Terry Hayes. (A court opinion thwarted Maine's new instant runoff voting law from applying to the general election for governor, so a candidate can win with just a plurality of the vote.) A 15-second spot attacks Hayes for supporting "unrestricted access to abortions" and wanting taxpayers to pay for it. The narrator then sums up Hayes as "pro-choice, for any reason. Too extreme for Maine."
● Governors: The gubernatorial races are flying rather under the radar this year amidst the fixation on whether the Senate and House will flip, but the truly historic gains may come in the governor’s races instead. With Democratic candidates moving into small leads in Georgia, Kansas, and Ohio, today's polling averages find the Democrats on track to pick up ten different GOP-held states, only one shy of the record (from 1994) of 11 gubernatorial flips in a post-World War II election.
● Polls: Did you know that "gubernatorial" is one of the four major food groups?
- FL-Gov: Cygnal (R): Andrew Gillum (D): 47, Ron DeSantis (R): 47
- FL-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Gillum (D): 49, DeSantis (R): 48 (mid-Oct.: 54-42 Gillum)
- FL-Gov: Trafalgar (R): Gillum (D): 48, DeSantis (R): 46
- GA-Gov: Cygnal (R): Brian Kemp (R): 49, Stacey Abrams (D): 47, Ted Metz (L): 4
- NM-Gov: Carroll Strategies: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 51, Steve Pearce (R): 47 (June: 51-42 Lujan Grisham)
- OH-Gov: Cygnal (R): Richard Cordray (D): 43, Mike DeWine (R): 43
- OR-Gov: Hoffman Research (R): Kate Brown (D-inc): 46, Knute Buehler (R): 44 (Sept.: 49-39 Brown)
- SD-Gov: Mason-Dixon for the Argus Leader & KELO-TV: Kristi Noem (R): 47, Billie Sutton (D): 44 (Oct. 18-22: 45-45 tie)
Of its Georgia poll, Republican pollster Cygnal notes, "Surprisingly, there were no undecided voters after initial undecided respondents were asked which candidate they lean toward."
If accurate, Mason-Dixon's South Dakota poll suggests that the state's deep-red lean is finally, finally asserting itself. But this race should never have been remotely this close: The last time the state had an open governor's race, back in 2010, Republican Dennis Daugaard (who is now term-limited) won 62-38.
House
● FL-06: Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA has reported making several more large expenditures in House races, but the most notable of them is a $1.6 million ad buy in Florida's 6th, an open GOP-held seat that only very recently has come into play.
● IA-04: White nationalist Republican Rep. Steve King evidently has not taken Democrat J.D. Scholten's challenge seriously this year, since he's only going up with his very first TV ads of the race on Friday. And not only is the move tardy, but it won't be a very big buy, either, since King has barely raised any money all cycle and had just $176,000 in the bank as of mid-October.
Scholten, meanwhile, has reportedly had the airwaves all to himself for the last two weeks, and his advantage is about to get bigger. Scholten's campaign says it raised $641,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, after King came in for renewed scrutiny over his close association with white supremacists, and a Democratic poll put the incumbent up just 45-44. (King responded with an internal showing him ahead 52-34.)
Scholten, a former pitcher for a local minor league team, the Sioux City Explorers, says he'll use the money to air a two-minute biographical spot. The ad, which describes building a campaign based on faith, concludes with the famous tagline from the movie Field of Dreams, which was indeed set in Iowa: "If you build it, they will come." There's no word yet on the content of King's ads, though we can guess.
● KY-06: According to the Republican firm Medium Buying, the DCCC is going back on the air to help Democrat Amy McGrath in her race against GOP Rep. Andy Barr in the final days before Election Day. While the committee hadn't been airing ads here since Oct. 15, it's hard to read this move one way or another: This race, on deep-red turf, was never going to be one Democrats could bank early on and then walk away from. Indeed, the House Majority PAC filled the gap and spent heavily while the DCCC was off the air. So, ultimately, this is pretty much what we might've expected to see.
● SC-01: Seems like the NRCC is more concerned about South Carolina's open 1st District than we'd been led to believe: While reports earlier this week said the committee was parachuting in with an $87,000 ad buy to help save Republican Katie Arrington, it turns out it’s actually spending a much larger $230,000 to ward off Democrat Joe Cunningham.
● Polls: The latest in House poll-related program activities:
While DiNicola has trailed narrowly in several polls, Susquehanna's is the first to show him with a lead. However, there's a reason to be cautious: The same firm just found Democrat Jessica King trailing only 50-46 in the incredibly Republican 11th District, so both of these results might be too rosy. (That said, the Cartwright numbers in the 8th aren't too far off the mark, though he's generally been in the low-to-mid-50s.)
Susquehanna also does something that's suboptimal: Before getting to its horserace question, it asks respondents, "[I]s it more important to have a candidate who will work closely with President Trump to advance his agenda, or a candidate who will stand up to President Trump and be a check and balance on the President's policies?" That kind of question is perfectly fine, but you want to bring it up only after you ask about the horserace. Putting these questions in the order Susquehanna does risks priming poll-takers in unpredictable ways.