"Temperature rises that are now in prospect, after the Paris Agreement, are in the range of 3–5°C. At present, the Paris Agreement voluntary emission reduction commitments, if implemented, would result in planetary warming of 3.4°C by 2100, without taking into account 'long-term' carbon-cycle feedbacks.
"With a higher climate sensitivity figure of 4.5°C, for example, which would account for such feedbacks, the Paris path would result in around 5°C of warming, according to a MIT study. A study by Schroder Investment Management published in June 2017 found — after taking into account indicators across a wide range of the political, financial, energy and regulatory sectors — the average temperature increase implied for the Paris Agreement across all sectors was 4.1°C."
-- from "What Lies Beneath" (Spratt and Dunlop, 2018), page 13 (link below).
- But the emission reduction commitments called for by the Paris Agreement are not being implemented. This places us on a course to exceed 3.4°C by 2100 assuming feedback cycles do not play a factor (which they will, and already are).
- Even at just 2°C, which now seems probable, it is estimated that 48% of the world's population will be exposed to deadly heat waves. You are talking about places like Phoenix, Arizona (population 1.7 million) having 30 or more days a year above 120°F. These heatwaves are in addition to more droughts, more floods, more fires, more crop failures, ...
- "If climate change was to reach 3°C, most of Bangladesh and Florida would drown, while major coastal cities — Shanghai, Lagos, Mumbai — would be swamped, likely creating large flows of climate refugees. Most regions in the world would see a significant drop in food production and increasing numbers of extreme weather events, whether heat waves, floods or storms." -- The Global Challenges Foundation (GCF). This does not take into account feedback loops which would rapidly push the CO2 levels even higher. Regardless, the social repercussions are beyond calculation. Think about it: people are not going to just stay where they are if where they are is unlivable (or if a neighboring country is just more livable).
- "Warming of 4°C or more could reduce the global human population by 80% or 90%, and the World Bank reports 'there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible'. Prof. Kevin Anderson says a 4°C future 'is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond "adaptation", is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable'. This is a commonly-held sentiment amongst climate scientists. A recent study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre found that if the global temperature rose 4°C, then extreme heatwaves with 'apparent temperatures' [what your weather app might call “feels like” temperatures] peaking at over 55°C [131°F] will begin to regularly affect many densely populated parts of the world, forcing much activity in the modern industrial world to stop." [ibid., page 14] In case you've already forgotten, the world is currently on track for temperature rises in the range of 3–5°C.
- The sentiment that life will somehow adapt to these changes is contingent upon the changes being slow enough for adaptations to occur. Reaching 4°C by 2100 is not slow. At that rate of change (0.36°C per decade from now to 2100) it is thought that few if any ecosystems will survive and "life on earth" will never again look like anything we've ever experienced.
I have four grandchildren, the oldest being 12. Staying on our current trajectory (even for just a decade or two longer), it's likely they will never get to experience having grandchildren of their own (or at least I hope not because their lives, there in the late 21st century, will be beyond hellish). I cannot contemplate that fact for very long without being completely overwhelmed with sorrow.
But here's something even sadder. One week from right now (from when you read this sentence) you will not have done one damn thing different that matters and my grandchildren’s generation is going to hate you for it. Or maybe you will? Go ahead, mark it on your calendar and let’s see if you’re really paying attention or not.
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"What Lies Beneath" appears to only be available as a PDF. You can find it here:
PDF Document: docs.wixstatic.com/...