Welcome to the Final 2018 edition of OGGoldy’s Minnesota legislature preview. Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area, while districts 29-67 are “Metro” districts in the Twin Cities area. More granularly, 29-58 are suburban and exurban seats, while 59-67 are urban districts in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. Republicans currently held a 76-57 majority in the chamber after the 2016 elections, and while there are some vacancies, no seats have changed hands since then. Additionally, there is a singular State Senate seat up for a special election, which was vacated by current GOP LG (long story on how that happened) Michele Fischbach when she ascended to her current office earlier this year. The Chamber is currently tied 33-33, and Fischbach’s seat is incredibly conservative, but due to the importance the special election has been a high dollar affair; more on that below. All House seats are up for election, and no regularly scheduled State Senate elections for 2018. Rankings in parenthesis are from my post-primary diaries on the same subject.
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. District 1A has 4rd term incumbent Dan Fabian was first elected in 2010, and has entrenched himself fully. He has not been seriously challenged since 2010, and is facing token opposition in DFLer Stephen Moeller. Fabian, who has made repealing Dayton’s clean water buffer law his central issue, (it makes farmers not farm within a few feet of waterways) looks a lock to return to St. Paul for another 2 years. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts, with Fabian having quite the rapport with aforementioned vehicle manufacturer. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A, the Kiel has still won convincingly every biennium since 2010. 1B includes East Grand Forks and Theif River Falls, the latter of which is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of Arctic Cat (Yes, both major American snowmobile/ATV manufacturer’s are in the same Senate district in the middle-of-nowhere-Minnesota). Dems recruited local union official and retired Air Force veteran Brent Lindstrom, who defeated the 2016 Dem nominee at the convention. Still, Kiel will win safely, though Lindstrom has run a respectable campaign for a Dem here.
House ARomney (R) 54-43
Trump (R) 65-28
McFadden (R) 49-47
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 61-31
Franken (D) 49-45
Safe R (Safe R)
District 2: District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. This seat has changed hands multiple times in the last few cycles, with Democrat Roger Erickson alternating winning in 08, and 12, with Republican David Hancock winning in 10 and 14. In 2016 Matt Grossell won easily over Jerry Loud, who defeated Erickson in the primary due to Loud being Native. After the primary, it came to light that Loud had a long history of being a domestic abuser, and lost handily to Grossell. This cycle, Dems settled on Michael Northbird. North Bird, a member of the Red Lake tribe has been running a good campaign and has kept up fundraising parity with the incumbent. Local Dems seem to be high on Northbird, so while this district has moved to the right of late, it’s remains in the Lean R category. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012 and has held it since. Green will be facing 2016 nomine: farmer Bryan Klabunde. Klabunde is not going to be more than a speed bump to Green for the second cycle in a row.
House ARomney (R) 50-48
Trump (R) 60-33
Franken (D) 49-47
Lean R (Lean R)
House BRomney (R) 56-42
Trump 64-29
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk. Bakk, along with long-term incumbent Mary Murphy and 2015 Special election winner Rob Ecklund (Both DFL) should win by their customary landslides against token opposition from Randy Goutermont and Keith MacDonald respectively.
House AObama (D) 55-42
Trump (R) 49-42
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D (Safe D)
House BObama (D) 60-38
Clinton (D) 50-42
Franken (D) 61-36
Safe D (Safe D)
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. The city of Moorhead more or less makes up the 4A half of the district, and is represented by Ben Lien, who has represented the area since 2012. Lien is facing off against 22-year-old college student Republican Jordan Idso for the second time, and should win by 25+ for the second time against him. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) looks to lock in his10th term in the House. He had a closer than expected 8-point race in 2016 facing off against a strong well-funded run by a County Commissioner during the Trump wipeout of outstate Dems. The GOP punted on this seat this cycle after coming up short, with a Some Dude last-day entrant Jason Peterson being the only Republican that wanted to run, and hasn’t run any sort of campaign at all, so expect Marquart to return to his normal 30-point victories this cycle. Marquart is at the top of the list when it comes to strongest DFLers to run to succeed Peterson when Peterson hangs it up.
House AObama (D) 55-42
Clinton (D) 48-41
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D (Safe D)
House BRomney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 57-35
Franken (D) 52-43
Safe D (Safe D)
District 5: The amalgam district, and is the most politically interesting in outstate Minnesota, with both seats hotly contested: 5B is the western influences of the Iron Range, and 5A is decisively not. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. In 5A we have our first marquee race in numerical order. Freshman GOP Rep Matt Bliss narrowly defeated DFL incumbent John Persell in one of the most highly contested race of that cycle, and Persell is going for a rematch. Persell is campaigning hard in the Leech Lake reservation, as his wife and children are Ojibwe, and his fate largely depends on turnout among the Native population. Persell has outraised Bliss. In the 2018 statewide primaries, Dems got 57% of the vote vs. 43% for Republicans, and all signs point to Persell being a slight favorite, though this is an area where Trump really made headway with the electorate vs. Generic R, so it’s trending from left to right. This is a seat remains to watch closely on election night. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of freshman Republican Rep Sandy Layman. Layman served in the Pawlenty cabinet and was a major recruit for Team Red in 2016. In return, The Democrats have nominated former long-time Itasca County Sherriff and current Grand Rapids School Board member Pat Medure, who has nearly universal name recognition in this area. Medure has maintained his 50% fundraising advantage over Laymen in the Pre-General reporting period, and the amount of money raised on this race far exceeds any other outstate race this year. I initially had this as tilting Layman’s direction, but Medure really seems to be the talk of the town around Grand Rapids (the only real city in the district), and I think the race has moved his direction ever so slightly.
House AObama (D) 51-46
Trump (R) 51-39
Franken (D) 52-43
Tilt D (Tilt D) (flip)
House BObama (D) 49-48
Trump (R) 56-36
Franken (D) 53-43
Tilt D (Tilt R) (flip)
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range: heavily DFL turf, though was seduced by Trump specifically in 2016. Julie Sandstede (DFL) is now running as a freshman incumbent after a really wild primary in 2016. She can expect a much less interesting cycle this year as she didn’t have a serious primary nor does she have a strong GOP opponent. Expect her to defeat Some Dude Guy Anderson in November. Over in 6B, we have the open seat being vacated by Jason Metsa, who unsuccessfully ran for the DFL nomination to MN8 this year. The GOP has nominated against 33-year-old Army Reservist Skeeter Tomczak (real name). I’ve never met Tomczak, but I know quite a few people that do know him, as he and I are the same age, graduating the same year. Tomczak has a reputation of being a bit of a Dudley Do-Right, which apparently has followed him from childhood to his military career, and didn’t do him well in his 2016 run against State Senator David Tomassoni (who isn’t up this year). The DFL has nominated Aurora mayor Dave Lislegard after a primary against a less mining-friendly DFLer in August. Lislegard is basically Jason Metsa if Metsa were 10 years older. Lislegard is also really well funded, out raising Tomczak 6:1, which actually is a slight narrowing of Lislegard’s 10:1 fundraising this summer. Still, it’s immaterial and Lislegard is going to St. Paul in January.
House AObama (D) 63-34
Trump (R) 47-44
Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D (Safe D)
House BObama (D) 62-36
Trump (R) 47-45
Franken (D) 61-34
Safe D (Safe D)
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range that Dems win by 35-40 in most every election. In 7A sophomore Jennifer Schultz will win in a landslide in this deep blue district. In 7B, freshman Liz Olson is also going to win in a comparable landslide for the seat. The GOP nominated Dada Krivagorsky and Caroline Burley, FWIW.
House AObama (D) 67-30
Clinton (D) 61-28
Franken (D) 69-28
Safe D (Safe D)
House BObama (D) 70-28
Clinton (D) 58-32
Franken (D) 70-27
Safe D (Safe D)
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this area in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again for a an 12th term vs. Some Dude(tte) Brittney Johnson. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state in 2012. It won’t happen again this cycle though, as she is a lock to beat social worker Gail Kulp for the second time in as many cycles.
House ARomney (R) 59-39
Trump (R) 63-31
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 65-28
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but I think those days are now behind us now. 1st term GOP Representative is a shoo-in against DFLer Alex Hering. In 9B, 3rd term incumbent Republican Ron Kresha will easily win against Stephen Browning.
House ARomney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 70-23
McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 73-21
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 10: This is a sleepy north central Minnesota seat, and is home to Joe Radinovich. The fact that he was able to win 10B as a 26 year old kid is pretty amazing in retrospect 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts. 2-term GOP Rep. Josh Heintzman is getting a free pass this year more or less, as he defeated a much stronger and better funded candidate in 2016. He is safe against Some Dude Dale Menk (DFL). The man who narrowly defeated Joe Radinovich in 2014, Dale Lueck, also has a sleepwalk of a race against another Some Dude: Phil Yetzer.
House ARomney (R) 55-43
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 53-44
Trump (R) 62-31
Franken (D) 48.3-47.6
Safe R (Safe R)
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). Due to it being a combination of Duluth metro spillover and the Fond du Lac reservation, the DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County to the north, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. In 11A, DFL incumbent Mike Sundin (DFL) is favored to win a 4th term against Republican realtor Jeff Dotseth. Dotseth hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he has narrowly outraised Sundin in a low dollar affair. There is a small chance that Sundin is getting caught napping, so this race has moved a tick to the right from Sage D to Likely D In 11B, incumbent GOP Rep Jason Rarick has entrenched himself nicely in his once-swingy but reddening district after just 4 years. Dems did get a decent candidate in Hinckley City Councilman Tim Burkhardt, and in a very bizarre move, it appears as though Rarick isn’t bother raising money or campaigning in the district at all, being outraised 3:1 by Burkhardt, even raising less than most challengers in Safe districts running hopeless campaigns. I can’t wrap my head around this one, but no one has this race even on the radar, not the Strib, or MinnPost, or Aaron Brown, or MPR. It doesn’t match with anything else anywhere in the state, so I am keeping a close eye on this one for peculiarity’s sake.
House AObama (D) 62-36
Clinton (D) 47-45
Franken (D) 62-33
Likely D (Safe D)
House BRomney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 61-31
Franken (D) 50-45
Likely R (Likely R)
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. This is one area that the DFL prospects dim most as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. In 12A circa 2014, Representative Jay McNamar (DFL) lost his seat by 700 votes against now- GOP Representative Jeff Backer, with Becker winning the rematch 60-39, and the district hasn’t gotten bluer in the last few years. The Dem running against Backer is retired teacher Murray Smart. True to form in rural America, Smart was actually Backer’s high school social studies teacher way back when. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and incumbent Paul Anderson (R) has an opponent this year, unlike in 2016. Though local country musician Ben Schirmers isn’t a huge “get” in terms candidate quality.
House ARomney (R) 52-46
Trump 59-33
Franken (D) 51-44
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 62-36
Trump 70-24
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican, but has gone to the right Democrats now and then, such as former State Representative Larry Hosch. This district is the only one in the state to have a SENATE election this year, a special election to fill the remaining 2 years on Lt. Governor Michelle Fischbach’s unexpired term after she ascended to the Lt. Governorship with the appointment of Tina Smith to the US Senate earlier this year. Both parties are actually taking this senate seat very seriously, as the chamber is currently TIED at 33 seats apiece, and if Dems can snag this pickup, it could give them unified control of government for the next 2 years. It’s an uphill climb for sure, but the DFL is pulling out all the stops due to the stakes. The DFL nominee is Joe Perske, the former mayor of heavily Republican Sartell, Minnesota, and is now a Stearns County Commissioner representing a very conservative portion of the country. Republicans are nominating 3rd term 13A representative Jeff Howe. Both parties have waived public subsidies and spending limits (which means BIG money is pouring into this race). Over a million dollars (!!!) has been spent by outside groups, and both candidates have raised gobs of cash themselves. Perske actually has a decent edge in direct fundraising, and Dem groups have spent slightly more than GOP groups. I give the slight edge to Howe, but Perske should not be counted out, as he has been elected to a County Commission district that is approximately coterminous with the Senate seat, and won it in 2016 with Trump topping the ticket. The race could have easily opened up in favor of Howe, as it is an R+13 rural seat, but it has not, and because of that I’m moving it to Lean R from Likely R. Regardless of who wins the Senate seat 13A gets new representation in St. Paul. Republican Rocori school board member Lisa Demuth should be considered the favorite in the race, though the Dems aren’t punting on this seat, having recruited long-time political science professor Jim Read to be their standard bearer. Read has outraised Demuth, and while this race didn’t initially seem to be on anyone’s radar before the whole Fischbach ordeal and ensuing musical chairs, it is definitely a seat both parties feel they can win, and are throwing money at it pretty hard, with Read outraising Demuth and hoping to ride any coattails left behind by Perske. Next door in 13B, Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll isn’t in any real danger, though did draw English Professor Heidi Everett as an opponent, but O’Driscoll is simply too strong to unseat.
SenateLean R (Likely R)
House ARomney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 64-29
McFadden (R) 50-45
Lean R (Lean R)
House BRomney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 63-30
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area, and is home to St. Cloud State University. Mid-sized college towns have not been friendly this cycle, so that will definitely play into this cycle. Tama Theis (R-14A) is running for reelection against college professor Aric Putnam for the second cycle in a row. This race wasn’t on many radars in 2016, but Theis was nearly caught off guard and with no COH come election day and won more narrowly than expected, and was pulled across the finish line by Trump. This time Theis hasn’t been caught flat footed this time, and has maintained parity on the dollars front, though Putnam isn’t exactly lying down himself. Dems are bullish on this, though Republicans aren’t going to cede the seat, and with Theis taking the race seriously, I am actually moving this a notch to the right, to Lean R. District 14B has seen perhaps the wildest swings of any House district in the state. This is largely due to the fact that St. Cloud State University, with its 15,000 students, makes up a large portion of this district, and they tend to have inconsistent turnout in various elections. In the other half of the district, GOP incumbent and Ways and Means Chair Jim Knoblach apparently molested his daughter for over a decade. While he didn’t resign, and can’t be removed from the ballot, he has officially ended his campaign. Congratulations to Representative-presumptive Doug Wolgamott. So what was shaping up to be a tightly contested race is now a safe flip for Team Blue. It should be noted that with Majority Leader Joyce Peppin resigning earlier this year, Ways and Means Chair Jim Knoblach losing in disgrace and former Majority Leader Matt Dean retiring, there is going to be a MASSIVE power vacuum within GOP leadership, regardless of the composition of the next legislature.
House ARomney (R) 50-48
Trump (R) 51-40
Fanken (D) 50-46
Lean R (Tilt R)
House BObama (D) 53-43
Trump (R) 46-43
Franken (D) 54-41
Safe D (Tilt R) (flip)
District 15: This is a fairly Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson has represented this seat since 1998, and won’t be ending her streak now against DFLer Emy Minzel. In the more conservative 15B, 3-term GOP incumbent Jim Newberger decided to end his political career early on his kamikaze run against Amy Klobuchar this year, leaving 15B vacant. Republican businessman Shane Mekeland is going to win in November against 2016 Dem nominee Karla Scapanski.
House ARomney (R) 55-42
Trump (R) 66-26
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 63-35
Trump 71-22
McFadden (R) 57-38
Safe R (Safe R)
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. Both Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and shouldn’t have much difficulty. 6A is not as ancestrally DFL as the northern bank of the Minnesota. 16A is represented by 4th term Republican Chris Swedzinski, who is not in danger of losing in 2018 to DFL challenger Tom Wyatt-Yerka. Downstream from 16A on the Minnesota River lies the more Republican 16B. Paul Torkelson (R) lives here, and has represented the area since being first elected in 2008. He faces DFLer Mindy Kimmel, but the general election is a formality, as Torkelson will win handily.
House ARomney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 60-31
Franekn (D) 49-47
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 57-40
Trump (R) 64-27
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R (Safe R)
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more ancestrally DFL leaning than the southern bank, even if not fully reflected in presidential PVI. Tim Miller (R) is the incumbent Representative having won 2 out of 3 against former Dem representative Andrew Falk. Oddly, 2018 will be a stronger challenge against him than Falk was: as former State Senator Lyle Koenen, who held both this House seat and the Senate seat from 2008 until getting swept out in the 2016 Trump fervor. Fundraising started out with a Koenen edge, though his campaign has fizzled down the stretch, making Miller a much stronger favorite than he was even this summer. In 17B Dave Baker (R) is running for reelection against retired engineer Anita Flowe. Flowe has actually campaigned pretty well, but Baker is too strong and this seat is too red for her to have a shot to win. It’s amazing to think that a seat Franken and Dayton carried as recently as 2014 is now completely off the table for Dems, but here we are.
House ARomney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 63-30
Franken (D) 51-44
Likely R (Lean R)
House BRomney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 57-35
Franken (D) 50-46
Safe R (Safe R)
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. The two Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and will win easily. In 18A, long-term incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running again, and is a 100% lock for it, even though he has a name on the ballot against him this cycle, unlike 2016. In 18B, incumbent Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a no-name Dem Ashley Latzke in a formality of an election.
House ARomney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 65-27
McFadden (R) 51-43
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 67-25
McFadden (R) 52-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. Incumbent 19A Representative Clark Johnson (D) is retiring. His 2014/2016 opponent Kim Spears is running again though. Johnson defeated Spears by 8 and 6 respectively. Democrats are running St. Peter mayor Jeff Brand against Spears. Both Spears and Brand are raising money well, though Brand is raising more, and this open seat is considered a battleground. Given the fact that this is Walz’ home area and long history of electing Dems, I give the edge to Brand. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, freshman incumbent DFLer Jack Considine, a former Mankato city councilman, is running for a 3rd term. He will be facing Mankato businessman Joe Steck. Considine is safe
House AObama (D) 52-45
Trump (R) 47-43
Franken (D) 55-40
Lean D (Lean D)
House BObama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 48-41
Franken (D) 58-37
Safe D (Safe D)
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Sophomore GOP incumbent Bob Vogel is in his second reelection campaign in 2018. He is a long time bank executive, and presumably has plenty of money to throw around here. Oddly, he hasn’t put in any of his own money and hasn’t raised all that much. He’s actually been badly outraised by CPA Barbara Droher Kline. This race wasn’t on any radars this summer, and remains on few radars, but with Droher Kline raising good money, I am going to take it out of Safe R, and move it to Likely R. In 20B, David Bly (DFL) is hanging it up, leaving the Northfield based seat open. Democrats have settled on church minister and immigration activist Todd Lippert, while Republicans have gone with trucker Josh Gare. Lippert is a prohibitive favorite, as Gare’s campaign never really got off the ground.
House ARomney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 62-30
McFadden (R) 54-42
Likely R (Safe R)
House BObama (D) 54-44
Clinton (D) 47-46
Franken (D) 57-39
Safe D (Safe D)
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of MN-2 along the Mississippi river. Freshman GOP Rep Barb Haley is running for reelection for the first time, and she is facing off against Democratic businesswoman Lori Ann Clark. This has proven to be an expensive race as it is seen by both sides as highly competitive. Clark has outraised Haley rather soundly, and has erased Haley’s COH advantage from the latter’s 2016 campaign account. I give the edge to Hayley based on incumbency alone, but this one will be close. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (R) is running again against Dem lawyer Jonathan Isenor, and it won’t be close in spite of the two candidates raising comparable amounts of campaign cash.
House AObama (D) 51-47
Trump(R) 51-40
Franken (D) 51-44
Tilt R (Tilt R)
House BRomney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klouchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone Rep Joe Schomacker (R-22A) first won this seat 6 months getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. Now age 32, he drew another Some Dude challenger in Maxwell Kaufman this year, but that’s just a formality, as he will win 60-40. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 8th term against his own Some Dude DFL challenger Chniqua Johnson.
House ARomney (R) 56-41
Trump(R) 66-27
McFadden (R) 51-51
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 63-30
McFadden (R) 48-45
Safe R (Safe R)
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. 23A will again reelect Bob Gunther (R) to another term in St. Paul, this time against Heather Klassen. Pervert Tony Cornish (R-23B) resigned a few months ago, and the special election to replace him was won by Republican Jeremy Munson. Munson isn’t facing much of a difficult race against Democratic professor Jim Grabowska, with his real test having been passed in the special election earlier this year.
House ARomney (R) 59-39
Trump (R) 66-27
McFadden (R) 52-43
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 50-47
Trump (R) 59-32
Franken (D) 50-45
Safe R (Safe R)
District 24: This is a locally swingy area around Owatana in southern Minnesota that is more Republican upballot. Unlike a lot of other farm areas, this one isn’t really moving right, as Owatana has long been a Republican bastion. It has actually started to move left downballot while the top of the ticket has stayed marginally Republican, making it quite unique in terms of political trends, though it was highly influenced by Trump, greatly improving Republican performance here last cycle. In the more Republican half, 24A, incumbent GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a 4th term, and will face army veteran Joe Heegard and is strongly favored to win again. In 24B we have State Rep Brian Daniels (R) running against Fairbault School Board member Yvette Marthaler. Daniels is the brother of 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell. This is a race that I personally didn’t expect to amount to much, as Daniels defeated a much stronger challenger in 2016. But Marthaler has outraised Daniels and there is some tepid hope for Democrats to win this seat. Family connections matter, it seems.
House ARomney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 57-33
McFadden (R) 49-47
Likely R (Likely R)
House BRomney (R) 50-47
Trump (R) 58-33
Franken (D) 50-45
Lean R (Lean R)
Districts 25 and 26. I do these together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. Republicans showed signs of life in 2014 for the first time in a decade and kept up some of that momentum in 2016, but we will see if that was a real comeback or not in the era of Trump. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has. 25A GOP Representative Duane Quam has bizarrely not bothered campaigning while Dem nominee Jamie Mahlberg fundraises and campaigns circles around him, with the challenger raising 5x the campaign cash as the incumbent. Mahlberg was not expected to be a strong candidate, but Quam looks to be potentially falling victim to political laziness. There was an incident in October that has not left a good taste in the mouths of those that saw it. Quam and Mahlberg had a forum where they each handed off a microphone back and forth. Apparently Quam was triggered in there during a response to a question on education funding, because he physically ripped the microphone out a very shocked Jamie Mahlberg’s hand while she wasn’t looking, muttered something about a failure, then physically threw the microphone back at Mahberg after she had looked back at the moderator who was in the process of asking her a debate question. The entire room was in a very quiet awkward moment until the moderator was able to continue with the debate. Quam gave a half apology the next day, but the story was run not only on local media but also picked up on national syndications and presented as the very chauvinistic act it was. It’s a GOP leaning seat and Quam has held the seat for a while, but his behavior has not resonated with a confident politician. I’ve moved this race to Tilt R because of his odd behavior and lack of campaigning. In 25B, DFL incumbent Duane Sauke faces the voters for the first time as an incumbent after a close race for the open seat in 2016. Republicans have Kenneth Bush, an African American realtor. Bush’s campaign doesn’t appear to have amounted to much and the race is far sleepier than in 2016 when it was a marquee matchup. It was on the border of Likely/Safe over the summer, but with Bush not making any headway, it’s moved to Safe D. In 26A we have DFL incumbent Tina Liebling facing former Olmsted County Commissioner Paul F Wilson. It doesn’t seem like Wilson ever bothered to make a campaign website, so while he is technically above “Some Dude” level politician, he isn’t a serious candidate and the race moves to Safe D. 2nd term GOP Representative Nels Pierson is running for reelection again, against Eyota City Councilman Tyrel Clark. Cark appears to be on a meteoric rise politically, having maintained his 3:1 fundraising edge from earlier in the year down the home stretch, and while I struggle to say he is outright favored to win, this is on the cusp of being favored to flip in spite of it being an R-leaning district with a scandal free incumbent running for reelection.
House 25ARomney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 52-37
McFadden (R) 51-44
Tilt R (Likely R)
House 25BObama (D) 53-44
Clinton (D) 50-40
Franken (D) 52-44
Safe D (Likely D)
House 26AObama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 53-36
Franken (D) 56-39
Safe D (Likely D)
House 26BRomney (R) 53-44
Trump (R) 53-38
McFadden (R) 51-44
Tilt R (Tilt R)
Districts 27. This area is swingy historically DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. In 27A, this seat has flipped back and forth for a few cycles now, with Republicans winning in ’10, ’14 and ‘16 and Democrats winning in ’06, ’08, and ’12. Incumbent Republican Peggy Bennett has proven to be a strong politician. Dems are backing local farmer Terry Gjersvik. Gjersvik has actually been running a pretty decent campaign based on everything I can see. Gjersvik has outraised Bennett by 50%, but both candidates appear to be taking it seriously. Given the greenness of Gjersvik and Bennett’s proven electoral prowess, I give her a decent advantage, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it flip. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented the area since 2004. Republicans have a name on the ballot, but that’s about it. Christine Green is effectively not a candidate beyond simply being on the ballot, and Poppe will dispatch her with ease.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Trump (R) 55-37
Franken (D) 54-41
Lean R (Lean R)
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Trump (R) 50-42
Franken (D) 56-39
Safe D (Safe D)
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is more swingy. Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades, and isn’t being challenged by anyone at all in 2018. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Davids is facing local DFL school board member, and former Al Franken staffer Thomas Trehus for the second time in as many cycles. Once again, this seat has become incredibly expensive again, following the 2016 cycle which saw over half a million dollars poured into it from all sides. Davids has the fundraising advantage, but both have raised lots of money. I give the advantage to Davids, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the upset here after a close race last time under more Republican-leaning circumstances.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Clinton (D) 46-44
Franken (D) 54-41
Safe D (Safe D)
House BObama (D) 52-46
Trump (R) 55-37
Franken (D) 50-42
Lean R (Lean R)
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs around Buffalo in blood red Wright County. Both incumbent Representatives Joe McDonald (R), first elected in 2010 and Marion O’Neil, first elected in 2012 face off against Some Dude level candidates: Renee Cardarelle and Sharon McGinty respectively.
House A
Romney (R) 60-38
Trump (R) 63-29
McFadden (R) 57-39
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 57-40
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R (Safe R)
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican downballot and centered about St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Incumbents Republicans Nick Zerwas and Eric Lucero hare rematches against their 2016 Democratic opponents Sarah Hamlin and Margaret Fernandez. There isn’t any reason why the incumbents’ 35+ point wins will be any different this year.
House A
Romney (R) 58-39
Trump (R) 61-30
McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 62-36
Trump (R) 62-29
McFadden (R) 60-36
Safe R (Safe R)
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. 31A is home to Speaker Kurt Daudt (R). Daudt seemed to have survived his Montana heist ordeal just fine, and isn’t going to be losing his seat. On the B side, we have freshman Cal Bahr, who won his seat by primary against a less ideologically pure long-term Republican incumbent in 2016 is surely going back to St. Paul for a second term. Though, it is worth noting that Tom Hackbarth, the aforementioned former incumbent, made a VERY strong push in the GOP primary from the left, though came up short.
House A
Romney (R) 62-35
Trump (R) 69-24
McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 59-38
Trump (R) 63-29
McFadden (R) 58-39
Safe R (Safe R)
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties became one of the Republican epicenters of the state over the last decade. In 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer faces off against DFL challenger Renae Berg and will win easily. 32B had a big kerfuffle last cycle, with the Republican incumbent not actually living in the district but whose name couldn’t be stricken from the ballot, so the November 2016 election was meaningless. That set up Minnesota’s first special election in 2017, which was surprisingly close with Republican Anne Neu winning 53-47. Neu has not exactly impressed many people politically and she has the political instincts and campaign skills of wet mop. Dems smell blood in the water here and are heavily backing Chisago School Board member Jeff Peterson. Not only has Peterson outraised the incumbent 2:1, but Neu has money on par with “Some Dude” challengers in hopeless districts. This is one of the bigger surprise races this cycle, and while I am skittish to declare Peterson the favorite, Neu is clearly napping on the job and is at major risk of losing her conservative House seat.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 64-28
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R (Safe R)
House BRomney (R) 55-43
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 52-44
Tilt R (Tilt R)
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota have leaned Republican, though are clearly reacting rather intensely against Trump and the GOP. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseating incumbents in 2012 in their primaries. Jerry Hertaus (R) in 33A represents all of the blood red sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Hertaus will be facing against self-made wealthy Professor of Pharmacy and businesswoman Norrie Thomas for the second cycle in a row. This, while a 62% Romney seat actually had more Dem votes in the 2018 primary than GOP votes, which is a giant red flag. Herthaus has upped his fundraising game after the primary, though he still trails Thomas on that front. Dems seem very high on Thomas, though with Herthaus all of a sudden waking up and starting to campaign, it’s getting moved to Lean R from Tilt R. In 33B, there is perhaps the second biggest Republican bomb thrower in the state legislature (behind Mary Franson) in Cindy Pugh. Pugh has not shied away from stirring the pot with some comments she has made over the years. Pugh is clearly behind in her bid for reelection against Gynecologist Kelly Morrison. Morrison has the distinction of being the biggest fundraiser in the state of Minnesota from either party, and has outraised the incumbent nearly 2.5:1 in this wealthy and rapidly bluing district. While Romney won it by 11 in 2012, Clinton narrowly carried it in 2016. More recently, Dems outnumbered Republicans in the 2018 primary 60.3-39.7. Republicans have scrambled in the last month or so trying to save her seat in what is certainly a futile effort. Pugh is a dead woman walking, and it isn’t going to be close.
House A
Romney (R) 62-36
Trump (R) 54-37
McFadden (R) 61-36
Lean R (Tilt R)
House BRomney (R) 55-44
Clinton (D) 45.5-45.0
McFadden (R) 54-43
Likely D (flip)
District 34: Maple Grove, with Rogers thrown into 34A. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove (and especially Rogers) is one of the places Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide, though the GOP margins have begun to dwindle as the city is no longer expanding. After over a decade of smooth reelection efforts, Republican House Majority Leader Joyce Peppin (34A) has seen the writing on the wall for the GOP this cycle and has stepped aside, retiring in July. This isn’t likely the last we’ve seen of Peppin, as she is still in her 40s and has higher ambitions, but those ambitions would have been blunted with an underwhelming reelection or worse yet, a loss. The race to succeed her has been rather intense. On the GOP side long-ago Congressional aide to Harris Fawell, Kristen Robbins defeated the GOP endorsed candidate Brad Ganzer, a local businessman, in the August primary in a bit of a surprise. Robbins has been running a solid campaign, and is clearly the favorite against DFL navy veteran Dan Solon. It’s rich suburbia, so it isn’t off the table for a Dem pickup, but the odds are not in Solon’s favor. Incumbent Republican Dennis Smith (R), is running against his 2016 opponent Kristin Bahner in 34B. This race never got much attention in 2016, and in spite of Bahner not having much of a campaign that year, she got within 10 to the much better prepared and funded Smith. I can’t say I understand Smith’s campaign strategy. He has raised a grand total of 350 dollars (yes, literally $350 total) and has instead chosen to burn through his preexisting warchest, dwindling it down the nothing, while not raising a dime in months. Bahner meanwhile is one of the better funded challengers in the state this year, ultimately outspending Smith with funds raised this year. This is one of the bluest GOP held seats (Dems outnumbered Reps 60.8-39.2 in the primary) and is in that rich white suburban areas that are repulsed by Trump. I think it’ll be close, but I give Bahner the edge, which is remarkable as I had this race rated as Safe R in this matchup just last cycle.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 57-40
Likely R (Likely R)
House BRomney (R) 51-47
Clinton (D) 47-43
McFadden (R) 51-46
Lean D (Tilt D) (flip)
District 35: This is the district straddling the Mississippi River in central Anoka County including Anoka and Coon Rapids. It has long had a quirky libertarian streak to it, and was the strongest area for Jesse Ventura in 98. Libertarianish Republican Jim Abeler is the State Senator here, and is a Paulite (I know, I know, some Paulites claim that it was a family decision to back Paul, but the fact of the matter is he did, and does have that streak in him) and fits the district incredibly well, but his seat isn’t up this cycle. The A side of 35 is home to GOP Representative Abigail Whelan who is retiring… at the ripe old age of 30. She has taken a job in England and is leaving the country, therefore has to leave her post in St. Paul. Neither party got great candidates here, with Republicans putting up Iraq War veteran John Heinrich and Dems putting up college administrator Bill Vikander. This is a quirky area, so it is tough to handicap with 2 C-list candidates that aren’t raising gobs of cash. I give the advantage to Heinrich due to him raising more money, which is a rarity for a Republican non-incumbent this cycle in MN. On the more Republican side, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is favored for her 6th term in the House against hospital employee Kathryn Eckhardt. Eckhardt has actually raised money on par with Scott, but it’s hard to see Scott losing in Andover.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 53-37
McFadden (R) 51-45
Lean R (Tilt R)
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 55-36
McFadden (R) 56-41
Likely R (Likely R)
District 36: This is w moderate area along the Mississippi river in the NW suburbs, with B being slightly more Democratic than A. Republicans have Mark Uglem in 36A. Uglem is the most liberal Republican in the Minnesota legislature, and was a center-left GOP mayor of Champlain before winning his seat in 2012. Uglem is retiring after this cycle, and the GOP has nominated local high school teacher and wrestling coach Bill Maresh. Maresh comes from a prominent local Mormon and wrestling family. Maresh is considerably more conservative than Uglem, and may not be the best fit for this UMC suburban seat. Maresh faces off against Dem lawyer Zach Stephenson. Stevenson and Maresh have both raised respectable amounts of money and seem to be running competent campaigns. The big number that pops out to me when deciding to project this race is the 2018 primary numbers: Dems outvoted Republicans 60-40 in August. I give the slightest advantage to Stevenson because of that. 7-term incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories, getting 51-56% against strong GOP opposition. For the first time in her career, it appears as though Melissa Hortman can rest easily on the eve of Election Day, as the GOP has completely punted on this seat. The GOP has a name on the ballot: Jermain Botsio, but Botsio has raised zero money and doesn’t have a campaign website, so Hortman is Safe, for the first time.
House A
Romney (R) 49-48
Trump (R) 47-44
McFadden (R) 48.45-47-49
Tilt D (Tilt D) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Clinton (D) 52-40
Franken (D) 52-44
Safe D (Safe D)
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, perhaps left leaning in the Era of Trump, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest Independence areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998, much like the adjacent district 35. 36A: The DFL won one of the narrowest elections in the state in 2016 when Erin Koegel edged out Republican Anthony Wilder. Unsurprisingly, Wilder is back for a rematch. Koegel isn’t setting the world on fire this cycle with fundraising of campaigning, but Wilder has all but disappeared, raising almost no money and apparently not campaigning. That simply isn’t going to cut it for a GOP challenger in suburbia this cycle. 37B GOP incumbent Nolan West was forced to resign from his position as a GOP staffer in 2016 because of a number of super racist Facebook posts, including “It’s lynching time” in response to Obama winning election, even with being cut loose by the GOP and becoming a social leper, he managed to win a very narrow win that cycle. To the surprise of most, he decided to run for reelection this cycle. Unsurprisingly, he hasn’t been allowed to appear with other politicians going through the area campaigning (a huge snub), and isn’t raising funds on level for an incumbent facing a tough reelection. Dems nominated attorney Amir Malik. Malik is a prohibitive favorite and has clearly out campaigned West.
House A
Obama (D) 53-44
Trump (R) 46-45
Franken (D) 53-43
Likely D (Likely D)
House B
Romney (R) 49-48
Trump (R) 48-43
McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely D (Likely D) (flip)
District 38: This district includes red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in. This is fairly sparsely populated space speckled with McMansion housing developments. 30-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck is running for a 16th term in 38A, and will safely win it against her 2016 opponent Kevin Fogarty. Former Majority Leader Matt Dean is retiring, leaving open is light red House 38B seat. Republicans got their biggest recruit of the entire cycle here, where former State Auditor (03-07) Patti Anderson is running for this seat in the lower chamber of the legislature. She has the name recognition and has shown that despite a decade plus out of elected office hasn’t lost her campaigning ability. Dems are running their 2016 challenger to Dean: teacher Ami Wazlawik. Wazlawik has actually kept up on the fundraising numbers with Anderson, which is a bit of a surprise. Anderson, being the more seasoned politician and this seat being a tick to the right of the state as a whole, remains as a small favorite, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Wazlawik pulls it out in the end, as this is an open UMC suburban seat in 2018. The Star Tribune endorsed few candidates for state legislature this cycle, but Anderson was one.
House A
Romney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 46-45
McFadden (R) 52-45
Lean R (Lean R)
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by red Forest Lake. This is Senator Karin Housley’s district. Housley isn’t up for reelection this year, though she is running for US Senate against Tina Smith. Minnesota doesn’t have a resign to run law, so this is a free shot for her. If she were to win, this seat would have a special election early next year. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 6-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is running for reelection. Dettmer over performs pretty much every other Republican in the area, though his super weak fundraising totals are a bit of a red flag for his campaign. Dems are running lawyer Ann Mozey. Given Dettmer’s weak fundraising, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Mozey has outraised him., though her numbers aren’t all that stunning either. Without Mozey taking advantage of Dettmer’s lazy fundraising, it is no longer realistic to see a path to victory for her this year; Dettmer is now safe. In the Stillwater-based district, Republican Kathy Lohmer (R) who was swept into office in 2010 is running for her 5th term. Lohmer has proven to be quite the adept campaigner, but Democrats are going for the district. Dems recruited retired teacher and track coach Shelly Christensen. Christensen has outraised Lohmer, though it is clear that the latter is taking this race seriously. Lohmer looks to be in slightly worse shame now than a few months ago, with Christensen widening her fundraising advantage over the incumbent. Lohmer is now on the verge of losing. FWIW, this is directly across the river from that big WI-SD10 special election that sent shockwaves when it turned out to be a Dem blowout in a red seat.
House A
Romney (R) 53-45
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 50-48
Trump 45.8-45.5
Franken (D) 48.69-48.08
Tilt R (Lean R)
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually drew and opponent this year, though he was unopposed in 2016 and 2012. Republican David True is going to be beaten 3:1 or more. Nelson was first elected in 2002, and hasn’t had a serious challenge to his tenure since. 40B Rep Debra Hilstrom is retiring, as she ran unsuccessfully for the DFL nomination for Attorney General against Keith Ellison. There was a hotly contested primary between two members of the Hmong community: Samantha Vang and Cindy Yang. Ultimately Samantha Vang won the primary in August, and now has a seat in the House for life if she wants it at the ripe old age of 24.
House A
Obama (D) 70-29
Clinton (D) 67-26
Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 68-29
Clinton (D) 65-27
Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D (Safe D)
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area when I was younger. Connie Bernardy (DFL-41A) is running for reelection again, now in her second stint in the legislature. Bernardy is a sharp politician and this is a friendly district for her, so she is safe against Republican Susan Erickson. Mary Kunesh –Podein is running for her second term against perennial candidate Tim Utz. Utz has run as a Republican, Independence Party, Reform Party, Constitution Party, and now as a true independent. He won’t be winning, but he keeps on trying. No Republican filed for the race.
House A
Obama (D) 59-38
Clinton (D) 55-35
Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 62-35
Clinton (D) 61-29
Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D (Safe D)
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B). Randy Jessup won in 2016 as narrowly as he lost in 2014. The woman he faced in both elections is not running for a rubber match, but Assistant Hennepin County Attorney Kelly Moller is in, and has been crushing it on the campaign trail. Jessup has raised a respectable amount of money, but Moller has more than doubled it, and all signs point to a pretty solid win for Moller in this UMC suburban district. Dems got a whopping 70% of the primary vote in August, and Clinton won it by 14. Jessup carried the district by 125 votes, and is heavily likely to lose in November, and Moller has outraised him 2:1. Though Jessup was given the Star Tribune endorsement. In 42B, Democrats have incumbent (and former Assistant Hennepin County Attorney in her own right) Jamie Becker-Finn, and Republicans have gone with youth pastor Yele-Mis Yang. Yang seems committed to running real campaign, but this year in this district is just not going to happen for her. The race moved to Likely D from Safe based solely on Becker-Finn not having as big of a fundraising advantage as one would expect from an incumbent here.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Clinton (D) 52-38
Franken (D) 53-44
Likely D (Likely D) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Clinton (D) 55-35
Franken (D) 57-40
Likely D (Safe D)
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. If anything, district 43 is slightly bluer than 42. In 43A, Peter Fischer is running for his 4th term against Republican challenger Bob Cardinal for the second time in as many cycles. Cardinal is a former mayor of Maplewood, and has been plagued with scandals causing him to lose his mayor’s job, and then fail at retaking it. He got wrapped up in a bit of a scandal akin to the one we saw sweep through Pennsylvania a couple years ago with judges and porn and lewd jokes. He didn’t file a pre-primary fundraising report (which means he raised $0), and doesn’t have a website. So while having a former mayor of the largest city in the district is generally a solid recruit, in this case it’s effectively meaningless. 43B, 7-term incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the slightly bluer of these two House districts. Lillie faces Some Dude(tte) challenger Rachel Bucholz, FWIW.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Clinton (D) 53-38
Franken (D) 55-41
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 52-39
Franken (D) 56-40
Safe D (Safe D)
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has begun to show signs of leftward movement. While Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city, and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. Lots of action going on here, as seems to be a pattern in the western suburbs (Paulsen’s turf) these days. 44A is the more Republican part of this district, and includes most of the city of Plymouth and is represented by Sarah Anderson (R). Sarah Anderson, at only 44 years old, may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to run for MN3 provided Paulsen does in fact lose this year (and Anderson somehow holds on). During last cycle’s roundup about how I figured Plymouth had hit the inflection point of electing Dems after a long history of voting Republicans for everything - the same thing Minnetonka did a decade earlier - and the 2016 election results bore that out pretty well with Clinton carrying it by 15 points, with greatly diminished Republican performance down ballot. Anderson won by 6 last cycle against DFL businesswoman Ginny Klevorn. Klevorn is back for Round 2 this cycle. Klevorn has outraised Anderson over 2:1, and it appears as though Anderson has outright been triaged by donors and the state GOP. I don’t know of any other Republican incumbents other than Nolan (racist mentioned above) and Anderson that have been cut loose outright. It’s weird to see in an area that has been so tightly contested for so long. Dems outvoted Reps in this district 64-36 during the primary, so I get it. In 44B, incumbent sophomore DFLer Jon Applebaum had the surprise retirement of the cycle. At the age of 33 and coming off of 2 VERY close and hard-fought election wins, he is hanging it up. This caught me off guard more than any other retirement this cycle. What caught me off even more was the GOP nominee for this seat. Republicans nominated Gary Porter, a former 2-term state representative, and former GOP congressional candidate and former State GOP Chairman. Pretty cool resume for a state house district right? It would be, except he did all of this in North Dakota. He served in the North Dakota State House, lost to Earl Pomeroy (D) in his 1994 congressional race, and ran the North Dakota GOP from 1995-1999. He has no ties to Minnesota and moved to the area in 2017. Needless to say, his candidacy has not amounted to nearly as much as it would have had he done all of that in Plymouth and not Fargo. Democrats have nominated a much more conventional candidate: Minnetonka City Councilwoman Patty Acomb. Acomb is a prohibitive favorite and no one really considers this much of a race. It’s bizarre to thing, as Appelbaum had to fight tooth and nail to hold down this seat for 2 cycles, but now it is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats hold it with little fanfare.
House A
Romney (R) 51-48
Clinton (D) 53-38
McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely D (Likely D) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Clinton (D) 57-35
Franken (D) 55-43
Safe D
District 45: Cystal, New Hope and Golden Valley. My home! I bought a house in Golden Valley in 2015, so 2018 is my second GE in my current locale. Crystal and New Hope are more working class inner suburbs, while Golden Valley is more middle class to upper middle class and home to a little company called General Mills. Representative Lyndon Carlson has 45A here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 76 years old, is the Dean of the House and will be carried out of the Capital feet first. Republicans put up Some Dude Reid Johnson, but it will be 60-40 Johnson, as it seems to be about those numbers every cycle for him. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. I actually live just down the street from him. He faces Republican Steve Merriman in November. 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Clinton (D) 58-33
Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 63-34
Clinton (D) 63-27
Franken (D) 64-32
Safe D (Safe D)
District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb, similar to Golden Valley to the North. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. 46A incumbent Representative Peggy Flanagan (DFL) is not running again, as she is Tim Walz’s LG nominee. Former State Rep Ryan Winkler (DFL), represented this seat for 5 terms before resigning in 2015 to move to Belgium for his wife’s work, which relocated her there. Well, they are back in St. Louis Park now, and Winkler is running for his old seat again, and is going to win it handily against Republican Some Dude Luke McCusker. In incumbent Secretary of State Steve Simon’s old seat 45B, sophomore DFL Representative Cheryl Youakim is running against Republican Mellissa Moore, which she will win for her 3rd term
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Clinton (D) 66-26
Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 66-32
Clinton (D) 68-23
Franken (D) 67-30
Safe D (Safe D)
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has historically had exactly zero presence here. GOP incumbent Jim Nash (R-47A) faces token Democratic opponent Madalynn Gerold. Representative Joe Hoppe (R-47B) is not running for reelection. In his stead, Republicans have nominated Chaska City Councilman Greg Boe. Boe had a primary against a much Trumpier TEA Party type candidate Vince Beaudette. The primary was closer than would have been expected, but the mainstream traditional Republican candidate prevailed. Democrats nominated General Mills executive Denzell Leggett. This is tough territory for a Democrat, but Leggett is legit, having raised an astounding sum of money, well in excess of all but the highest fundraisers in the state this year, being the 3rd highest fundraiser of either party in the state. He has outraised Boe by a 3:1 margin, which is actually slightly narrower than it was after the primary. I can’t believe Democrats are sincerely thinking about winning a Chaska-based seat. But it seems as though it may happen? As a Democrat, I am more bearish on this seat now than I was a couple months ago, but it is a very traditionally Republican seat that Dems are barely worse than 50/50 in.
House A
Romney (R) 63-35
Trump (R) 60-31
McFadden (R) 59-37
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 47-44
McFadden (R) 52-46
Tilt R (Lean D)
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. For cycles in a row, HD48A has been home to some of the closest elections in the chamber, with Dems going 3-0 in that time, in no small part due to Republicans preferring staunch conservatives in the primaries that simply can’t get over the hump. The 2016 winner was Laurie Pryor (D), who is running for her second term against Ellen Cousins. Cousins isn’t a fire breather the way some of the other GOP nominees have been, and by all appearances is running a competent campaign and fundraising well. This just doesn’t seem like the year for wealthy suburbs to be shifting to the GOP column. Given just how close these races have been, and the fact that Cousins is a serious candidate, I will keep it at Lean D even though Pryor received the Star Tribune endorsement. Jennifer Loon (R-48B) is the State Rep in Eden Prairie. Loon is probably best known as being the last woman standing following the RINO hunt that ensued after Minnesota passed its gay marriage legalization in 2013. Conservatives challenged in primaries all of the GOP backers of the bill, forcing some into retirement, and knocking off others. Loon, however, fended hers off, and earned herself some serious bipartisan cred in this socially liberal affluent suburban district. Dems kind of whiffed in this district, honestly. The only Dem to run is an IT worker Carlie Kotyza-Witthurn. Kotyza-Witthurt has raised decent money, but something just seems forced with this candidacy, and her resume is quite thin. It seems that Loon will be the Last (Republican) Woman Standing in affluent Hennepin County suburbia after this. Maybe the blue wave’s tide is high enough to sweep her out, but it seems less likely at the moment.
House A
Obama (D) 52-46
Clinton (D) 55-36
Franken (D) 52-45
Lean D (Lean D)
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Clinton (D) 52-39
McFadden (R) 52-46
Lean R (Lean R)
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become politically marginal and stereotypically affluent, and a tinge blue. 49A is represented by freshman Republican Dario Anselmo. Anselmo narrowly defeated Republican-turned DFLer nonagenarian Ron Erhardt after Erhardt had a senior moment and got caught up in deep water for dated worldview and poor word choice. This year, Democrats are nominating therapist Heather Edelson, and Edelson has raised a boatload of money (The second most in the state for either party) and is running a very strong campaign. I don’t see Anselmo holding on in the super-affluent and socially liberal Edina in this environment, not when he’s getting outraised and outspent by a huge margin in a district Clinton won by 27. 49B, once about as politically even of a district as you would find anywhere, has moved left cycle over cycle, and is now firmly in the blue column, and getting more so every year. Paul Rosenthal, a mainstay in this district for a decade is standing aside, taking a job in Utah and leaving the state. Originally this was going to be after the election, but he resigned in September when he moved, leaving this seat technically vacant. That leaves this district open. What would have been unthinkable just a few years ago is now a reality: Republicans aren’t contesting this seat. They have a name on the ballot: Matt Sikich, who put his name in on the last day for candidate filing, so it wouldn’t be blank. But he doesn’t have a website or raised any money and doesn’t appear to be campaigning at all. That means the seat will be won by the Democratic nominee: Metropolitan Council member Steve Elkins. The Met Council is a hugely powerful appointed body that has its fingers in everything from highway construction, to management of the MSP airport, to Twins/Vikings/Timberwolves/Wild stadiums and arenas to the light rail lines. Before being appointed to the Met Council, Elkins served on the Bloomington City Council. He is a polished politician and will hold this seat as long as he wants it.
House A
Obama (D) 52-47
Clinton (D) 59-32
Franken (D) 52-47
Likely D (Likely D) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Clinton (D) 56-36
Franken (D) 53-45
Safe D (Safe D)
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually lived in this district for a time before I bought my house in Golden Valley. DFLer Linda Slocum in 50A is retiring due to worsening health. Michael Howard was talked out of his shoo-in run for mayor of Richfield, where he serves on the city council, in order to succeed Slocum. Howard is a long time Dem operative, and could have a future if he wanted a promotion at some point down the line. Republicans are running 2016 SD50 nominee Kirsten Johnson. Johnson lost her senate race by 21, and this is the bluer half of the district, so the election won’t be anything noteworthy. 50B was the sight of a massive turnover in 2016, and is probably easier to describe chronologically. Ann Leczewski (DFL) represented east Bloomington for many years before resigning in late 2015. In the 2016 special election, State Senator Dan Hall (R-56)’s son-son-in-law Chad Anderson (R) ran for the open seat and was a huge underdog against Democratic Bloomington City Councilman Andrew Carlson (DFL), but pulled out a shocking upset in February 2016. Fast-forward to the 2016 November election and there was the first rematch between the two, with the Democrat prevailing by a much more expected 8-point margin. Immediately, Anderson declared his intention for a rubber match in 2018. Though his campaign has been left for dead, and no one, likely not even him, believes this will be even close. Still, having a former holder of this seat prevents it from being 100% safe.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Clinton (D) 61-30
Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D (Likely D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Clinton (D) 55-36
Franken (D) 56-41
Likely D (Likely D)
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This was really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012, yet the leftward trend of the area meant Dems maintained both of the House seats in 2014 and 2016. Sandra Masin (DFL) has won the last 3 elections for 51A in 2012 and 2014 after losing the 2010 election for it. Masin has drawn GOP lawyer Jim Kiner as an opponent, but is likely to win reelection this cycle. In the slightly redder 51B, incumbent Laurie Halverson (DFL) is facing off against retired Army Lieutenant Colonel for another term. Much like Masin, Halverson is a strong favorite against her GOP challenger.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Clinton (D) 54-37
Franken (D) 54-43
Likely D (Likely D)
House B
Obama (D) 51-47
Clinton (D) 53-37
Franken (D) 52-46
Likely D (Likely D)
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to MN-2 in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district in the southern part of 52B, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like a slightly redder District 50, which lies to the northwest. Rick Hansen is the DFL incumbent in 52A, and has been since 2004. Republicans nominated Beth Anrtson, but it should be expected that Hanson will win by his customer 20-25 point margins. Republicans managed to pick up HD52B when the long term moderate incumbent Joe Atkins retired and the much more liberal Mary T’Kach ran against Republican Regina Barr. Barr, now a freshman state legislator, is running for reelection for the first time. Democrats are going hard for this district and are backing Ruth Richardson, an attorney. Richardson isn’t any more moderate than T’Kach, but this year is more Dem friendly than 2016, though Regina is now an incumbent. This is a seat that I have a gut feeling that has went from tilting towards Barr to tilting towards Richardson.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Clinton (D) 56-35
Franken (D) 57-40
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Clinton (D) 49-42
Franken (D) 51-46
Tilt D (Tilt R) (flip)
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood and Oakdale. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly Republican, with Oakdale being moderately Republican leaning. DFL Representative Joanne Ward has held 51A since 2012, and is retiring at age 72. This half of the district is more Democratic, and Democrats got a solid recruit in lawyer / Maplewood City Councilman Tou Xiong. Republicans got anti-tax activist Andy Turonie. Turonie started out campaigning and then has disappeared as the battle lines for control of the legislature have moved away from here. Xiong’s fundraising has slowed down a little bit as Republicans capitulated on Turonie and resources were allocated elsewhere, but he still raised gobs of cash and is proving to be a strong candidate. Xiong is clearly angling either for a leadership position, or perhaps to succeed Betty McCollum in congress, if she ever retires. 53B is represented by sophomore state Rep Kelly Fenton (GOP). Fenton faces off against 78 year old retired teacher Steve Sandell (DFL). Sandell seems to be raising money, though it doesn’t seem likely he can unseat equally well-funded Fenton. If anti-Trump fever hits suburbia like a tsunami, this is one of the seats which will fall, though. If Sandell holds on, this will likely be the GOP held seat that was won the most by Clinton (+8).
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Clinton (D) 54-37
Fanken (D) 56-40
Safe D (Likely D)
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Clinton (D) 50-42
McFadden (R) 52-46
Lean R (Lean R)
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another, with 54A being far more Democratic than 54B. This seat saw 3 open races in 2016, with Republicans winning both House seat while the Dems winning the Senate seat (go figure). That Democrat was Dan Schoen, one of the guys wrapped up and resigned in the #MeToo movement this cycle. Dems held his seat in a special election earlier this year, though it wasn’t a huge over-performance the way some Dems had hoped, though it wasn’t a flip either, the way some Republicans hoped. 54A the more DFL friendly of the seats, and is centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). In a major upset in 2016, former St. Paul Park mayor Keith Franke (R-54A) won this Dem-leaning seat. Franke, to his credit, has been running a decent campaign, unlike other incumbents that are facing tough reelections that have folded like a cheap suit. He faces off against biologist Ann Claflin. Claflin is considered the slightest of favorites, given the nature of the seat and the year and the fact she is running a competent campaign. 54B is swingy, and carried very narrowly by Obama, and then by Trump. Freshman GOP Rep Tony Jurgens is running for reelection against Hastings City Councilwoman Tina Folch. Money has poured into this race far more than next door in 54A. Folch has the clear cash advantage, though given the fact that this was an Obama-Trump district with an incumbent R, it shouldn’t be rated as more likely to flip than not. Though, with the widening of the cash advantage and campaign rumblings, it seems to be resting on a knife’s edge
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Clinton (D) 50-42
Franken (D) 56-41
Tilt D (Lean D) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 49.15-48.57
Trump (R) 48-42
Franken (D) 50-46
Tilt R (Lean R)
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is is almost all of of 55A). The action in 55A is no stranger to some political oddities, with Bob Loonan winning his primary in 2014 against a TEA Partier. Loonan is no moderate, though he has had some personal issues to say the least. Following a DWI, Loonan did lose his primary this year to Erik Mortensen. Mortensen is probably to the right of Loonan, but the endorsement and primary were about Loonan not being fit for office, and not really policy driven. Dems on the other hand got the strongest possible candidate in former mayor of Shakopee and current Chairman of the Shakopee Chamber of Commerce Brad Tabke. Tabke is running hard to the middle, which would likely be necessary to win election here, and realistically is probably where his heart truly is based on how he governed the city from 2013-2017. Mortensen is a rather bombastic conservative that is quite confrontational in demeanor, while Tabke is stylistically much more demur. Tabke is clearly an underdog in this seat, but don’t discount the possibility of an upset here, as this is still suburbia, albeit the conservative side of it. 58B incumbent Tony Albright has settled nicely into incumbency in his cozy Republican district. He does face 2010 Democratic nominee for HD35A (55B’s predecessor district under the old lines) Matt Christiansen. Albright is safe.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 47-43
McFadden (R) 51-45
Lean R (Lean R)
House B
Romney (R) 60-38
Trump (R) 57-34
McFadden (R) 58-38
Safe R (Safe R)
District 56: This is swingy Burnsville and a sliver of Apple Valley to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A). 25 year old sophomore incumbent Drew Christensen (R-56A), no relation with Dem 55B nominee, and not to be confused with his 2016 opponent Jared Christiansen either, is running for reelection. Democrats didn’t get hit a home run with the recruitment process here, settling on Dem Some Dude Hunter Cantrell. Cantrell is not all that impressive of a candidate, but he has gotten some attention due to the sympathy vote, being a very recent cancer survivor and taking up the mantle of being a pre-existing conditions healthcare advocate. That campaign theme has allowed him to raise a bunch of money and be used as a bully pulpit for which to hammer Christensen from. Christensen is still the favorite, though it is going to be tighter than it appeared a few months ago 56B is a district Obama carried by 66 votes in 2012, and will likely be competitive up and down the ticket again this fall. 2-term incumbent Roz Peterson faces off against a much more touted recruit: Brazilian immigrant and physician Alice Mann. Mann has amassed quite the warchest, and Peterson appears to be scrambling a bit down the stretch. It still seems as though Mann has the narrowest of edges here.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Clinton (D) 47-44
McFadden (R) 51-46
Lean R (Likely R)
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Clinton (D) 48-43
McFadden (R) 49-48
Tilt D (Tilt D) (flip)
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and slightly more Republican area around Apple Valley. This is the seat were Dems committed an unforced error. After Erin Murphy’s unexpected endorsement at the convention, she made perhaps the biggest blunder in modern DFL history: tapping Erin Maye Quade to be her running mate. Not only was Maye Quade self-admittedly unprepared for the office and ignorant of even basic campaign issues, and that fact torpedoed Erin Murphy’s hopes in the primary, but it also left Democrats scrambling without a candidate in a narrowly divided HD57A that the Blue Team had just picked up in 2016. After a mad dash to the Secretary of State office to file paperwork and a quixotic primary of nobodies, Robert Bierman emerged as the Dem nominee. Unfortunately, unlike every other purple suburban seat, The Dem trails in terms of money and campaign infrastructure. GOP nominee Matt Lundin, a local realtor, is now a strong favorite to pick this seat up for the Republicans. In the slightly more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, 3-term incumbent Anna Wills (GOP) is running against DFL doctor John Huot for the second cycle in a row. Wills won 54-46 last time. This seat has pretty close fundraising totals, and with Wills having won the first round and having a narrow edge in fundraising, she is the slight favorite for the rematch in this Obama-Clinton seat.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Clinton (D) 49-42
Franken (D) 50-47
Likely R (Likely R) (flip)
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Clinton (D) 48-44
McFadden (R) 49-48
Lean R (Lean R)
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This is pretty Republican turf (56% Romney). In the Lakeville based 58A freshman GOPer Jon Koznick is a prohibitive favorite against DFL Sume Dude(tte) Maggie Williams. Regardless, this district is quite red, and Koznick will win. Pat Garafalo has represented Farmington in the House since 2004, and will continue to do so until at least 2021. First he has to beat Marla Vagts, a local lawyer for a second time, after doing so 65-35 last cycle.
House A
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 51-40
McFadden (R) 56-41
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump (R) 57-35
McFadden (R) 53-43
Safe R (Safe R)
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary.
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Fue Lee unseated a sitting state rep in the 2016 primary to get his seat. 59B Representative Raymond Dehn is running for reelection, though had to survive a contested primary against Lisa Neal-Delgado, where he prevailed 53-47.
House A
Obama (D) 84-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 80-17
Safe D (Safe D)
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and its large Somali community. Incumbent Diane Loeffler (DFL-60A) got a GOP challenger this cycle, unlike last cycle. Ihlan Omar, the Congresswoman in waiting for MN-5 represents 60B, but with her retirement she will be replaced by Mohamud Noor, a member of the Minneapolis School Board.
House A
Obama (D) 77-19
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 76-19
Safe D (Safe D)
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Representative Frank Hornstein is running for reelection for a 9th term. Former Speaker Paul Thissen in 60B hadresigned in February to focus on his ill-fated gubernatorial election. Thissen’s gubernatorial aspirations never panned out, but he was appointed to the Minnesota Supreme Court by Mark Dayton in May following the appointment of David Stras to the 8th Circuit federal court. Talk about falling upwards… Regardless, 61B gets a new Representative, and that will be Keith Ellison staffer Jamie Long.
House A
Obama (D) 78-19
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 78-20
Safe D (Safe D)
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. 62A Representative Karen Clark retired, and there was a crowded primary to replace her. The primary was won by Hodan Hassan, who will be elected in November. 62B Representative Susan Allen has also retired. There was no primary for her seat, as it was handled at the convention, and the next State Rep for 62B will be Aisha Gomez.
House A
Obama (D) 86-9
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 87-10
Safe D (Safe D)
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Long-time Incumbents Jim Davnie (63A), and Jean Wagenius (63B) are both returning for more time in St. Paul.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 74-24
Safe D (Safe D)
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Erin Murphy represents 64A, but ran for governor instead of reelection, leaving her seat open. She will be succeeded by Kaohly Her, a businesswoman and leader in the Hmong community. Dave Pinto (D-64B) is back for a 3rd term.
House A
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 70-27
Safe D (Safe D)
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D (Safe D)
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Alice Hausman (66A) and John Lesch (66B) will be reelected to their House seats easily.
House A
Obama (D) 66-32
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 79-19
Safe D (Safe D)
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Tim Mahoney has represented eastern St. Paul in the House since the 1990s, and this year doesn’t even have a GOP challenger. After decades in office, Sheldon Johnson decided to retire from 67B, and he will be replaced by Jay Xiong, a St. Paul teacher.
House A
Obama (D) 76-22
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 74-23
Safe D (Safe D)
Currently the breakdown of the 76R-55D with 3 vacancies (were 2R-1D before being vacated). The rankings are as follows.
Safe R-37
Likely R-7
Lean R-14
Tilt R-7
Tilt D-6
Lead D-3
Likely D-12
Safe D-46
Adding it all up, I have the projected makeup of the next legislature as 69D-65R. There will be fireworks in St. Paul with a 34R-33D Senate, 69-65 House and a Dem governor.