Here’s my handicap of IA-04 and a path to victory for JD Scholten…..
First and foremost, Scholten needs to win Story County by at least 20 points (and probably 25 points) with a robust student turnout in the college town of Ames. King’s old district lines in the 2000s consisted exclusively of western Iowa and was entirely unwinnable for a Democrat. It’s because of the addition of Story County in the district’s southeast corner that Scholten has a chance. Typically, the conservative rural areas of Story County report first and the deep blue Ames precincts come in last, so don’t fret if the county is 75% reported and King either leads or narrowly trails. Christie Vilsack won Story County by 15 points in 2012, with Presidential year turnout. Scholten needs to do a few points better. Scholten will need a decent number out of Boone County just west of Story as well, a working-class county that swung right in the last two cycles but has considerable Democratic DNA.
Next in importance is the I-35 corridor on the east side of the district, which has also been added since the 2011 reapportionment. Most critical is Cerro Gordo County (Mason City), a blue county and north Iowa population center that went for Christie Vilsack by nearly 20 points and was one of only two Iowa counties to vote for Jim Mowrer against King in 2014. Again, I’d say a benchmark of a 25-point Scholten win in Cerro Gordo County would be needed for a districtwide win. The rural counties surrounding Cerro Gordo are equally critical, with significant double-digit Scholten wins needed in Floyd and Chickasaw counties east of Cerro Gordo, and competitive, blue-tilting outcomes in conservative and rural Franklin, Hamilton, and Hardin counties, all of which lean Republican but narrowly went for Obama in 2008 when Obama got within two points districtwide. A couple of bellwethers on the district’s east side are Republican-heavy Hancock County and Butler County (Chuck Grassley’s stomping grounds). These are counties Democrats win only in blowouts (Harkin and Bill Clinton). If Scholten is winning these counties, he’s probably winning districtwide.
Next on my list of importance are the immigrant-heavy communities/counties. None is more important than Woodbury County (Sioux City), the most heavily populated county in IA-04 where there’s always been an intense polarization between Democrat-leaning blue-collars and Dutch conservatives. In 2012, Obama narrowly won Woodbury County while King narrowly won the House race against Vilsack. This kind of underscores the prevalence of immigration politics in the district as I suspect there were quite a few white working-class voters who were amenable to Obama’s economic message of 2012 but like Steve King’s hard line on immigration. Key to Scholten’s chances is whether King’s overt white supremacy is a bridge too far for them...and for some of the more middle-class Romney voters in Sioux City. It’s hard to handicap how well Scholten can or needs to do in Woodbury County because the Republicans probably have a high floor there. I’d say he needs to win the county by 7 points for a districtwide win.
Continuing with immigrant-heavy communities, perhaps the best bellwether for the entire district is Buena Vista County, home to majority-minority Storm Lake. Despite being a college town and a majority-minority town, the county still leans heavily Republican. Even McCain beat Obama here in 2008, a year which was as close to a perfect Democratic storm as we’ve seen in Iowa in the last decade. But the county has diversified quite a bit more in the last 10 years and may have reached a tipping point. It better have because I can’t see a path to victory for Scholten if Buena Vista County stays red. Another majority-minority town in IA-04 is Denison on the southwest side of the district. This county (Crawford) had more Democratic DNA in the past and went for Obama in 2008, but it’s King’s home county and I suspect he’ll have a homefield advantage there.
A few other counties that have gone Democrat in the past but have been trending red, yet are probably needed as part of a winning Scholten map, are the foursome of Emmet, Palo Alto, Kossuth, and Winnebago counties which hug the Minnesota border. All of them voted for Obama in 2008 but swung hard-right in 2012. Only Winnebago County didn’t vote for Steve King that year, and all four went for Romney. On the south side of the district keep your eye on Carroll, Greene, and Audubon counties, all 2008 Obama counties that leaned Democrat a generation ago. Depending on Scholten’s performance elsewhere, he may not absolutely have to win ALL of these counties, but he has little room for error if he loses any of them. More vital is Webster County (Fort Dodge), one of the district’s more populous counties with a mix of conservative farm territory and the shell of an old unionized industrial hub. It’s been heavily Democrat in the past but has taken a sharp right turn in the last two cycles. Nonetheless, the math of IA-04 makes a decent-sized win in Webster County (ideally 10 points) mandatory to Scholten’s chances.
Some heavily Republican counties that I would say are a must for King to stay in his column are Dickinson (home to the upscale Lake Okoboji area which could theoretically be one of the more promising places for Scholten to pick off votes), Clay County (decent-sized conservative town of Spencer, just south of Okoboji), and some more rural counties such as Cherokee, Sac, Calhoun, Wright, and Pocahontas. These are counties Democrats haven’t won since Harkin and if Scholten is winning any of them, it’s an excellent sign for him. Some of them are diversifying quickly which could prove to be a tipping point. The same could be said about Monona and Harrison counties in the district’s southwest corner, but they’ve been King country for so long it’s harder to see them flipping.
And lastly there are the Republican strongholds that will stick with King no matter what, but it will come down to margin. Foremost are the bright red counties in the district’s northwest corner, the heart of Iowa evangelical country and some of the most reliably red counties in the Midwest. The population center is Sioux County, which is majority Dutch conservative. But Sioux County also has two evangelical colleges in Orange City and Sioux Center where I think it’s possible to see some young people who find King to be a bridge too far. This softness amongst evangelical youth sort of happened in 2008 when McCain “only” won Sioux County by 60 points (!!) rather than the 70 points Republicans typically win by. Smaller in population but nearly as hard-core in their Republican allegiance are neighboring Lyon, Osceola, O’Brien, and Plymouth counties. King WILL win all of these counties, but it’s a matter of margin-shrinking. There are a handful of other rural counties in IA-04 with a similar profile….guaranteed King wins, but it will come down to margin.
In a district as rural with a population distribution as widespread as IA-04, it’s very unlikely to be a situation where a handful of blue counties with larger populations are capable of countering the rural vote. If Scholten is to win, it will require a lot of moving parts in every corner of the district. It can be done, as Bill Clinton and Tom Harkin proved, but if you’re looking at a county map of the district that isn’t two-thirds blue on Tuesday night, it won’t happen since King will have such a concentration of landslide support in the district’s northwest corner.