The final round of polling before Election Day held some good news for Democrats. Though the generic ballot in several new high-quality polls gave Democrats around the same 8-point edge (give or take) that it has for the last month, the fundamentals in individual House districts generally looked slightly stronger for Democrats in some tight districts. This was true in the final round of New York Times/Sienna polls conducted over the last several days (generally Oct. 28/29 to Nov. 4).
As The Upshot's Nate Cohn tweeted yesterday, their final data found Democrats running on average several points ahead of their first round of polling in the same districts. Here's a handful of fun potential flips to think about:
CA-48
- Harley Rouda (D): 46 percent
- Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R): 45 percent
GA-06
- Lucy McBath (D): 46 percent
- Rep. Karen Handel (R): 44 percent
IL-14
- Lauren Underwood (D): 49 percent
- Rep. Randy Hultgren (R): 43 percent
KY-06
- Amy McGrath (D): 44 percent
- Rep. Andy Barr (R): 44 percent
TX-32
- Collin Allred (D): 46 percent
- Rep. Pete Sessions (R): 42 percent
In every case but one, the Democrat is running slightly better than they did during the Times/Sienna polling of the same race in September (Times/Sienna didn't poll GA-06 before, so there's no previous data for that race). This general uptick for Democrats is being reflected in last-minute House ratings changes by outlets like Cook Political Report, which just made 10 final adjustments, nine in the direction of Democrats. For instance, the hard-fought GA-06 seat (i.e. the Jon Ossoff race) that went for Republicans in last year's special election is now deemed a "Toss Up" by Cook rather than "Lean Republican."
Some final high-quality Senate polling also generally held good news for Democrats, suggesting that they may be able to fend off some the worst-case scenarios of a several-seat pick up by Republicans in the chamber, even as the chances of a Democratic takeover remain slim. But for instance, some high-quality polling over the last week in Arizona, Missouri, and Indiana generally looked more favorable for Democrats than much of conservative-leaning and internal polling had.
Arizona Senate (NBC/Marist)
- Kyrsten Sinema (D): 50 percent
- Rep. Martha McSally (R): 44 percent
(Was Sinema 48 percent, McSally 45 percent in Sept.)
Indiana Senate (NBC/Marist)
- Sen. Joe Donnelly (D): 45 percent
- Mike Braun (R): 42 percent
(Was Donnelly 44 percent, Braun 41 percent in Sept.)
Missouri Senate (NBC/Marist)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): 50 percent
- Josh Hawley (R): 47 percent
(Was McCaskill 47 percent, Hawley 47 percent in Sept.)
Without getting into gaming out all the potential seat pickups/losses in the House and Senate, the overall outlook appears to be slightly more bullish for Democrats retaking the House, and slightly less good for GOP pickups in the Senate (though Republicans are still favored to maintain the majority).
As NBC noted last week, the closing days of this cycle simply hold a much different feel for Democrats than did 2016, when they were dogged by daily WikiLeaks postings and James Comey reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton.
Now it's time for Democratic voters and Democratic leaners to bring it on home! #VOTE
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