This was the healthcare midterm. All the pollsters said that going in, and in fact a good-sized plurality of 41 percent said it was their most important issue in the exit polls, for what exit polls are worth. But in three deep red states that stayed in Republican hands, there was a popular revolt over Medicaid expansion.
In Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah, Medicaid expansion passed easily. It absolutely crushed in Idaho, where it got 60 percent of the vote. As a testament to the incredible grassroots organizing effort on the ground in this state, 9,470 more votes were cast in this race than in the governor's race (it's Idaho, and the nation is going to continue to have to wait for its first Native American governor—the Republican won). It didn't win with just the overwhelming support of the state's urban areas, which it got. Out of the 42 of the state's 44 counties that have reported as of Wednesday morning, it carried 33. It didn't hurt that the outgoing Republican governor, Butch Otter, endorsed it last week and that the campaign counted a number of Republican legislators as surrogates.
The biggest win by the numbers was in Idaho, but that doesn't discount its 7 point win in Nebraska or the 5 point win in Utah. Utah also passed medical marijuana, by about 6 points. So, welcome to Utah Sen.-elect Mitt Romney! The one disappointment in the west is Montana, where a tobacco tax to create a permanent funding mechanism for the state's part of the bill is failing by about 9 points. The state is going to have to come up with some other funding if it's going to keep the expansion, which was passed for a two-year trial period in 2016.
But beyond where it was on the ballot directly with these initiatives, it was a major factor in governors' races. The Democratic wins in Kansas and Wisconsin mean that expansion has a much greater chance of happening in those states. It's also true in Maine, where the voters have already resoundingly embraced it but outgoing Republican Gov. Paul LePage has refused to do it. With Stacey Abrams still not conceding the race in Georgia because of all the outstanding ballots, there's still a sliver of hope for expansion there, as well.
That resounding vote for Medicaid expansion in solidly Republican states, and the flip of the House of Representatives to Democrats, is a big ol' warning to the Republicans and a big firewall against further Republican efforts to destroy it. This is a very good thing.
