Want a good illustration of just how pernicious gerrymandering is in elections? Let me welcome you to Pennsylvania, which enjoys a reputation as one of the most heavily gerrymandered in the country. Last night,
- “54% of PA state Senate votes cast were for Democrats, 46 for Republicans, yet the GOP won 56% of available seats.
- “The GOP got 48% of state House votes but 55% of seats.
- “And even with the state Supreme Court ordering new fairer maps for Congressional elections in the state this fall, Democrats cast 55% of the votes but got 50% of the seats (9-9 which was an improvement from an earlier 10-6 GOP split with two vacancies.)
But good news is on the way. Gerrymandering has been a vital tool for the GOP to hang on even though its share of the US vote is clearly shrinking nationwide. But today, gerrymandering is under increasing and successful attack.
Here’s the problem...and some solutions: Every ten years (2021 will be the next one after the next census) states have to redraw the maps they use to create Congressional and state House and Senate districts to supposedly craft relatively even and contiguous groups of voters and redistribute them based on the census. That is why there are always the same number of US Congressional seats but states gain or lose seats each decade based on the census. PA for example will likely lose a seat to a state that is growing faster.
This process is often handled by the leaders of the legislatures and with strong GOP control of state legislatures nationwide that means predominantly GOP control of the map drawing process (but it also works for Democrats too and in either case it is wrong.)
It is often done behind closed doors and with sophisticated mapping data that can get right down to street level to assign voters to one district or another. Often map “suggestions” are “offered” by lobbying groups that know controlling state legislatures helps them control the legislative agenda to their advantage.
The result has been maps so convoluted that, as the above illustration shows you, we wind up with a PA district fondly known today as Donald Kicking Goofy. Basically, politicians choose their voters, creating districts so heavily weighted to one party or the other that in far too many cases, incumbents run unopposed because there is little chance they will be beaten. Voters get discouraged and don’t participate. Legislative bodies get more and more polarized.
(BTW….look at Virginia’s legislature which after their last election with a surprise Democratic wave went from strong GOP dominance to virtually equal representation. Suddenly the GOP realized it HAD to negotiate with the Democrats and the legislative process has by numerous reports, gotten significantly less contentious)
Well, help is on the way, buoyed by California which, in 2010, managed to pass a ballot initiative creating an independently crafted citizens commission. Citizens were chosen to handle the mapping process after the 2010 census, and they did so in the open, with televised statewide hearings and written justifications for EVERY map they created. They could not be politicians, chosen by politicians, lobbyists or members of legislative staffs. No private conversations with murky lobbying groups and outside maps.
Voters loved it. The original initiative barely passed but when opponents tried a new initiative to defeat it later, that effort was handily defeated. Approval of the legislature skyrocketed.
Now other states are jumping on the citizens commission bandwagon and last night three and possibly four have scored victories by winning referendums to create their own:
- Michigan, Missouri and Colorado passed measures by 60-70% margins demonstrating strong bipartisan support for reform.
- In Utah, “yes” voters are clinging to a narrow 1% lead in the balloting and it appears their proposal may go to a recount.
- Arkansas and Oklahoma expect to have initiatives on their ballots in 2020.
Here in PA, Fair Districts PA (www.fairdistrictspa.com) has been working for nearly two years to effect change, but it is a massive challenge because change requires changing the state constitution. To do that, you need to pass a bill in one session proposing an independent commission to take over from legislators.
- Then you need to pass exactly the same bill the next session…absolutely no changes in the language of any kind.
- And then it has to be approved by voters in a referendum.
- The GOP controls the legislature
- Its leadership strongly supports gerrymandering to maintain control.
- They used delay and legislative maneuvering to shoot down a reform bill that enjoyed the largest bi-partisan support of any bill before them in 2018 and for good measure, made sure it would not have time to pass by burying it in hundreds of amendments.
Because of the “two-successive-session passage and referendum” requirement, that maneuvering effectively killed hopes of reform in time for the upcoming 2021 redistricting.
(To be fair, there are not a few Democrats who want to preserve the present system also….waiting for the day when THEY take control and can draw their own districts to their advantage. Reform proponents want change because whether gerrymandering is done by Dems or Rs, it is wrong and bad for democracy.)
But that opposition is clearly flying in the face of mounting public pressure for reform, as evidenced by the nationwide results overnight and what Fair Districts has accomplished so far:
- Statewide, 269 communities, including 19 counties, have passed bipartisan resolutions or letters of support asking their legislators to reform the process and take it out of the hands of legislative leaders. This represents almost half the PA population.
- Yesterday, over 400 Fair Districts volunteers fanned out to polling places across the state and collected over 15,000 petition signatures supporting reform. That brings our total to over 55,000 with 30,000 collected yesterday and during our state primary elections this spring.
- Hometown newspapers have printed over 350 letters to the editor calling for reform.
- In addition to detailed news coverage, 47 media outlets statewide, representing big cities and small towns and the full political spectrum, have written over 150 editorials, op-ed pieces and columns – virtually ALL of them calling for true reform.
- A statewide poll found 64% of Pennsylvanians support reform….mirroring the results overnight in Michigan, Colorado and Missouri.
Reform is on the march nationwide. I urge you to get involved in your state to create an independent commission and eliminate gerrymandering. Dems picked up a number of key governorships and more legislative representation ahead of the 2020/21 redistricting process and that is critical to efforts to assure that every vote counts and drawing tricky maps by legislators is eliminated.
PS….reforms can be won in other ways as well. I urge readers who may not have done so to check out this Kos diary from overnight reporting on the big win in North Carolina that has blocked GOP attempts to highjack the courts and the redistricting process.