Morning Digest: Democrats flip New Mexico House seat—that had been called for Republicans

New Mexico Democrat Xochitl Torres Small

Leading Off

● NM-02: Whoa mama joe! CNN called this open-seat race for Republican Yvette Harrell early Wednesday afternoon, but late in the evening, a new batch of absentee ballots were counted that gave Democrat Xochitl Torres Small a 50.7 to 49.3 lead, or more than 2,700 votes. That prompted the AP to call the race for Torres Small on Wednesday night.

New Mexico’s 2nd District was not friendly turf for Democrats, having voted 50-40 for Trump, but Torres Small, a water rights attorney, ran an exceptional campaign. She also helped make history repeat itself: This seat became open because Republican Rep. Steve Pearce decided to run for governor, only to get trounced. The same thing happened in 2008, when Pearce ran for the Senate and got obliterated, only to see his House seat flip to the Democrats at the same time. He was able to recapture it two years later, but hopefully Torres Small can ensure that bit of history doesn’t repeat.

Uncalled Races

Here are where things stand as of Wednesday evening in the contests we still have listed as uncalled in our key race tracker.

Senate:

● AZ-Sen: Republican Martha McSally holds a 49.4-48.4 lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, a raw vote lead of about 17,000 votes.

The secretary of state's office says there are around 600,000 uncounted ballots. About 472,000 of them are in Maricopa County, where Sinema currently holds a 49.4-48.6 lead. Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes says their next scheduled update is at 7 PM ET Thursday (5 PM local time) and then at 7 PM ET each day until they're done counting, a process that could take as long as two weeks. There are also another 80,000 more ballots out of Pima County, where Sinema is up 55-43, and about 40,000 in Pinal County, where McSally leads 57-41. It seems that some 14,500 or so ballots remain in the rest of the state, which McSally is carrying 55-42.

At this point, the math looks better for McSally than Sinema. If all these ballots are counted and go for each candidate by the same margin as the rest of their county, Sinema would only net about 5,000 votes, less than a third of what she needs to pull ahead. Of course, it's always possible these ballots will be more favorable to Sinema than what we've seen so far, but we don't have any information to suggest how likely that might be.

● MS-Sen-B: As we expected, there will be a Nov. 27 runoff between appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy. Hyde-Smith, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, took 42 percent of the vote on Tuesday, while Espy led GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel 41-16 for the second runoff spot. Just as it was in the the first round, the candidates won’t have their party affiliations listed on the ballot, but Hyde-Smith still begins the three-week sprint as the clear favorite in this very red state.

Gubernatorial:

● GA-Gov: Republican Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 50.4-48.7 with all precincts in. Kemp declared victory Wednesday but Abrams did not concede, arguing that thousands of uncounted provisional ballots were cast by people who had problems voting on Election Day. Abrams’ team, which held out the possibility of litigation, also notes the possibility that there are mail-in ballots that haven't been counted because of complications from Hurricane Michael.

While Abrams is extremely unlikely to take the lead no matter what transpires, if she can somehow knock Kemp below 50 percent of the vote, there would be a Dec. 4 runoff. As of Wednesday night, however, Kemp is about 30,000 votes above that threshold.

House:

We'll note at the top that in California, even though the secretary of state and many media organizations say that 100 percent of precincts have reported, there are always a large proportion of votes that still need to be counted. Voting by mail has grown enormously popular in the Golden State, and state law only requires ballots to be post-marked by Election Day (as long as they’re received within three days). In addition, many voters who hand-deliver their ballots wait until the last day.

As a result, these ballots pile up while officials conduct Election Day voting, so the tabulation (which involves checking signatures against the voter rolls) often takes weeks. In 2016, for example, we didn't have a resolution in the very tight race for California's 49th District until three weeks after Election Day. In past cycles, ballots counted after Election Day in California have usually favored Democrats, though there’s no guarantee we’ll see the same pattern this year.

● CA-10: Republican Rep. Jeff Denham leads Democrat Josh Harder 50.6-49.4, a margin of about 1,300 votes.

● CA-39: Republican Young Kim leads Democrat Gil Cisneros 51.3-48.7, a margin of about 3,900 votes.

● CA-45: Republican Rep. Mimi Walters leads Democrat Katie Porter 51.6-48.4, a margin of about 6,100 votes. That’s a drop of 149 votes in Walters’ margin since election night.

● CA-48: Democrat Harley Rouda leads Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher 51-49, a margin of about 3,600 votes. That’s an increase in Rouda’s margin of about 1,000 votes since election night.

● GA-06: Democrat Lucy McBath leads Republican Rep. Karen Handel 50.5-49.5, a margin of about 2,900 votes. McBath declared victory on Wednesday, though major media outlets have not yet called the contest. Handel is also not conceding, with her campaign saying that because the results "at this time are within the 1 percent threshold where a recount is possible, we believe it is prudent to review and assess all data before making additional actions or statements."

● GA-07: Republican Rep. Rob Woodall leads Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux 50.2-49.8, a margin of about 900 votes. There are about 2,400 provisional ballots that still need to be counted in Gwinnett County, where Bourdeaux leads 55-45. Those ballots will be reviewed Thursday and results may be finalized Friday.

● ME-02: GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin leads Democrat Jared Golden 46.1-45.7, a margin of 921 votes, with 88 percent of precincts in, while independents Tiffany Bond and William Hoar are taking a combined 8.2 percent.

Maine's new instant-runoff-voting law makes the second- and third-choice preferences of the supporters of these third-party candidates incredibly important here. Secretary of State Matt Dunlap said that votes for Bond and Hoar will be reallocated sometime next week. Before Election Day, Poliquin wouldn't rule out a lawsuit if he won more first-choice votes than Golden but the Democrat prevailed in the runoff, while Golden said that he would accept the instant-runoff results.

● NJ-03: While Democrat Andy Kim began Wednesday morning trailing GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur, he pulled ahead that afternoon when Burlington County added 25,000 vote-by-mail ballots to its count. Kim currently leads 49.8-48.9, a margin of about 2,600 votes. Kim declared victory on Wednesday night, but MacArthur wouldn’t concede.

However, it doesn't sound like there are enough ballots left in conservative Ocean County, which makes up the balance of this seat, to let MacArthur pull back ahead. The chair of the Ocean County Board of Elections said Wednesday that they'd received 250 mail-in ballots (though they're still accepting ballots post-marked by Tuesday) and that there are 1,500 to 2,000 provisional ballots left to be reviewed. Officials say that it could take a week to count provisionals.

● UT-04: Democrat Ben McAdams leads GOP Rep. Mia Love 51.3-48.7, a margin of about 5,040 votes with 70 percent of precincts reporting.

The good news for Love is that only 38 percent of Utah County, where she's currently ahead 74-26, is reporting. The bad news for all of us is that Utah County officials say they don't plan to post more results until Friday. However, about a quarter of McAdams’ base in Salt Lake County, where he's ahead 55-45, is still out, and it makes up about two-thirds of the remaining precincts. Salt Lake County says they plan to issue daily updates at 5 PM ET (3 PM local time) at least through Friday.

Love's team is still professing optimism despite what looks like some really tough math, but one prominent Republican has already thrown her to the wolves. On Wednesday, Donald Trump declared, "Mia Love gave me no love and she lost," adding, "Too bad. Sorry about that, Mia." Trump does not seem to have been sorry.

● Secretaries of State: Additionally, we have two secretary of state races that will be decided in runoffs. In Georgia, there will be a Dec. 4 runoff because no one took a majority. As of Wednesday evening, Republican Brad Raffensperger led Democrat John Barrow 49.2-48.6, with the balance going to Libertarian Smythe DuVal.

And in the special election in Louisiana for the final year of former GOP Secretary of State Tom Schedler’s term, there will be a Dec. 8 runoff between Republican Kyle Ardoin and Democrat Gwen Collins-Greenup. Both took about 20 percent of the vote each, but the seven Republicans on the ballot took a combined 62 percent of the vote, while Collins-Greenup and another Democrat earned a total of 36 percent.

Wednesday Calls

When we put our liveblog to bed at the astounding hour of 5 AM ET (thanks to ultimate electoral ironman Steve Singiser, who then went to work the next day!)—11 hours after we began—there were nevertheless many races whose outcomes remained uncertain. Some are still uncalled as of Wednesday evening, but media outlets called a number of contests during the day:

• MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) defeats Matt Rosendale (R)
• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont (D) defeats Bob Stefanowski (R)
• CA-25: Katie Hill (D) defeats Steve Knight (R-inc)—Dem pickup
• CA-49: Mike Levin (D) defeats Diane Harkey (R)—Dem pickup
• MN-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) defeats Dan Feehan (D)—GOP pickup
• NC-09: Mark Harris (R) defeats Dan McCready (D)
• NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D) defeats Yvette Harrell (R)—Dem pickup
• TX-23: Will Hurd (R-inc) defeats Gina Ortiz Jones (D)
• WA-08: Kim Schrier (D) defeats Dino Rossi (R)—Dem pickup

Despite the call in Texas’ 23rd, Ortiz Jones has not conceded the race. She currently trails by 689 votes (a margin of 49.1 to 48.8) after a wild night that initially saw the race called for Hurd, then saw those calls retracted after Ortiz Jones unexpectedly took the lead. That seemed to be the result of a data entry error, however. Ortiz Jones could legally request a recount, though her team has not publicly broached the possibility.

Tuesday Flips

As of Wednesday evening, a number of races had yet to be called across the country (see our Uncalled Races section above), but here are the seats we know have flipped:

● Senate: Republicans are currently sitting on a net gain of three seats, picking up four but losing one to Democrats. The race for the GOP-held seat in Arizona remains uncalled, with many votes left to be counted (see our Uncalled Races section above).

• NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D) defeats Dean Heller (R-inc)
   
• FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R) defeats Bill Nelson (D-inc)
• IN-Sen: Mike Braun (R) defeats Joe Donnelly (D-inc)
• MO-Sen: Josh Hawley (R) defeats Claire McCaskill (D-inc)
• ND-Sen: Kevin Cramer (R) defeats Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc)

● Governors: Democrats picked up seven governorships while Republicans gained the nation's only independent-held seat, in Alaska. Georgia remains uncalled, with Republican Brian Kemp narrowly leading but Democrat Stacey Abrams refusing to concede, saying there are ballots yet to be counted.

• IL-Gov: J.B. Pritzker (D) defeats Bruce Rauner (R-inc)
• KS-Gov: Laura Kelly (D) defeats Kris Kobach (R)
• ME-Gov: Janet Mills (D) defeats Shawn Moody (R)
• MI-Gov: Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeats Bill Schuette (R)
• NM-Gov: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeats Steve Pearce (R)
• NV-Gov: Steve Sisolak (D) defeats Adam Laxalt (R)
• WI-Gov: Tony Evers (D) defeats Scott Walker (R-inc)
   
• AK-Gov: Mike Dunleavy (R) defeats Mark Begich (D)

● House: The picture here keeps moving quickly: On Wednesday morning, there were still 16 uncalled races, but that number had shrunk to nine by the time we put the Digest to bed. At the moment, Democrats have flipped 33 seats from the GOP—more than enough for the majority—while Republicans have won two Democratic-held districts, for a net gain of 31 for Democrats.

• AZ-02: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) defeats Lea Marquez Peterson (R)
• CA-25: Katie Hill (D) defeats Steve Knight (R-inc)
• CA-49: Mike Levin (D) defeats Diane Harkey (R)
• CO-06: Jason Crow (D) defeats Mike Coffman (R-inc)
• FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeats Carlos Curbelo (R-inc)
• FL-27: Donna Shalala (D) defeats María Elvira Salazar (R)
• IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D) defeats Rod Blum (R-inc)
• IA-03: Cindy Axne (D) defeats David Young (R-inc)
• IL-06: Sean Casten (D) defeats Peter Roskam (R-inc)
• IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D) defeats Randy Hultgren (R-inc)
• KS-03: Sharice Davids (D) defeats Kevin Yoder (R-inc)
• MI-08: Elissa Slotkin (D) defeats Mike Bishop (R-inc)
• MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) defeats Lena Epstein (R)
• MN-02: Angie Craig (D) defeats Jason Lewis (R-inc)
• MN-03: Dean Phillips (D) defeats Erik Paulsen (R-inc)
• NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (D) defeats Seth Grossman (R)
• NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (D) defeats Leonard Lance (R-inc)
• NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D) defeats Jay Webber (R)
• NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D) defeats Yvette Harrell (R)
• NY-11: Max Rose (D) defeats Dan Donovan (R-inc)
• NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D) defeats John Faso (R-inc)
• NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D) defeats Claudia Tenney (R-inc)
• OK-05: Kendra Horn (D) defeats Steve Russell (R-inc)
• PA-05: Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeats Pearl Kim (R)
• PA-06: Chrissy Houlahan (D) defeats Greg McCauley (R)
• PA-07: Susan Wild (D) defeats Marty Nothstein (R)
• SC-01: Joe Cunningham (D) defeats Katie Arrington (R)
• TX-07: Lizzie Fletcher (D) defeats John Culberson (R-inc)
• TX-32: Colin Allred (D) defeats Pete Sessions (R-inc)
• VA-02: Elaine Luria (D) defeats Scott Taylor (R-inc)
• VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D) defeats Dave Brat (R-inc)
• VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D) defeats Barbara Comstock (R-inc)
• WA-08: Kim Schrier (D) defeats Dino Rossi (R)

• MN-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) defeats Dan Feehan (D)
• MN-08: Pete Stauber (D) defeats Joe Radinovich (D)

● State Legislatures: Democrats flipped six GOP-held legislative chambers, while Republicans may have taken over the Alaska state House, which had been controlled by a coalition of Democrats and Republicans. That won’t be known until party leadership elections are held in the near future. The chambers that went from red to blue:

• CO State Senate
• ME State Senate
• MN State House
• NH State House
• NH State Senate
• NY State Senate

● Attorneys General: Democrats flipped four state attorney general offices, while the GOP took none.

• CO: Phil Weiser (D) defeats George Brauchler (R)
• MI: Dana Nessel (D) defeats Tom Leonard (R)
• NV: Aaron Ford (D) defeats Wesley Duncan (R)
• WI: Josh Kaul (D) defeats Brad Schimel (R-inc)

● Secretaries of State: Democrats flipped two secretary of state posts, while the GOP took none.

• CO: Jena Griswold (D) defeats Wayne Williams (R-inc)
• MI: Jocelyn Benson (D) defeats Mary Treder Lang (R)

Other Updates

● FL-Sen: Though a number of media outlets called the race for Republican Gov. Rick Scott, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson said on Wednesday that he'll pursue a recount. Currently, Scott leads 50.16 to 49.84, a difference of just 0.32 percent—26,056 votes out of over 8 million cast. Under Florida law, if the margin between two candidates is 0.5 percent or less when counties report their first unofficial results to the state by Saturday at noon, that automatically triggers a machine recount.

There's another twist here, though. In the race for Florida's open agriculture commissioner post, Republican Matt Caldwell leads Democrat Nikki Fried by an even narrower 8,254-vote margin, or just 0.1 percent. That falls beneath the 0.25 percent threshold that would prompt a manual recount of all ballots—something that will trigger deep emotions in anyone who lived through the 2000 presidential election. A machine recount for both races will take place first; assuming the margin for one or both races is under 0.25, a manual recount would then follow of all ballots for any races in that category.

● NY-27: Indicted GOP Rep. Chris Collins leads Democrat Nate McMurray 49.5-48.4, a margin of about 2,900 votes, with 99 percent of precincts in, and several media outlets have called the race for the incumbent. However, even though McMurray conceded on election night, he later said he’d seek a recount.

● PA-15 (old): While the Shelley Sekula-Gibbs Prize is not awarded every election, it looks like we may have a winner this year: Pennsylvania Republican Marty Nothstein. In the race for Pennsylvania's 7th District—newly created pursuant to court-ordered redistricting—Nothstein was soundly beaten by Democrat Susan Wild, 53-44. However, the two also faced off in the old 15th District for the final two months of former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent's term, since Dent resigned earlier this year.

In that race, Nothstein is clinging to a 58-vote lead, and he says that if the result holds, he will indeed head to Congress to serve in the lame-duck session, though he'd apparently have to resign his position on the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners. If instead he decides he'd rather keep his current post, then Dent's seat would remain vacant until January—and Nothstein would, sadly, have to decline his Snelly.

Recaps

● Redistricting: Astute election observers know that gubernatorial elections in the midterm before the decennial census play a key role in shaping control over redistricting each decade because of how two-thirds of the states elect their governors to four-year terms then, and Stephen Wolf takes a look at what Tuesday's elections likely mean for the 2020s redistricting cycle. Thanks to Democrats flipping seven governor's offices and six legislative chambers, they removed Republican control over the process in several key states and gained it in a few of their own.

Unfortunately, that still leaves Republicans in charge of redistricting in more than 40 percent of congressional districts, four times as many as Democrats. However, that lopsided ratio is still far better than the practically unprecedented eight-to-one deficit Democrats would have faced prior to Tuesday's elections, and it's not quite as bad as after 2010. Furthermore, Democrats still have the chance to flip a few key state legislatures in 2020 in places where they failed to flip the governor's office, which could further even out the playing field, since divided government means both parties have to compromise or courts will step in and draw relatively nonpartisan maps.

● Secretaries of State: With Republicans passing voting restrictions in state after state, the officials who oversee the administration of elections themselves take on a vital role for preserving fair access to the ballot, and Stephen Wolf maps out which states each party controls and where they made gains in 2018. Secretaries of state are often each state's chief elections official, and Democrats flipped two of them in key swing states, Colorado and Michigan, while Republicans only took over tiny Alaska. New Hampshire Democrats may also get to replace a GOP voter suppression-supporting Democrat with a genuine advocate for voting rights after they flipped the legislature.

● Statehouse Action: Flipping the U.S. House was a major prize for Democrats on Nov. 6, but in terms of long-term impact on party health, progressive policy, and more, Team Blue’s success at the state level cannot be overlooked. By flipping key state legislatures and governorships, passing game-changing ballot measures, and stripping Republicans of total government control in key swing states, Democrats are rebuilding real power at all levels of the ballot.

On Nov. 6, Democrats flipped six legislative chambers, won state government trifectas in six states, and stripped Republicans of trifectas in four states. Also, Democrats flipped four AG seats and two SoS seats, and voters opted to expand voting rights in Florida and Michigan.

You can read the details of which chambers flipped, which trifectas were won, where Democrats made gains, and more here.