One quarter of the federal government is now very likely to shut at midnight tonight because Individual 1 is tailspinning out of control. That would take paychecks away from about 800,000 federal employees for who knows how long; Trump says "a very long time."
More than half of those employees, about 420,000 of them, will have to stay on the job anyway. Here's who will probably be working and who won't for the duration if Mitch McConnell can't convince Trump to back down. These employees will have to stay on the job without pay:
- More than 41,000 law enforcement and correctional officers
- Up to 88 percent of Department of Homeland Security employees
- Up to 5,000 Forest Service firefighters
Who will be furloughed home:
- Roughly 86 percent of the Department of Commerce staff
- About 96 percent of NASA employees
- About 52,000 IRS workers
- Roughly 95 percent of Housing and Urban Development employees
They're all, rightfully, freaked out.
"Our members are asking how they are supposed to pay for rent, food, and gas if they are required to work without a paycheck," David Cox, the president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said in a statement. "The holiday season makes these inquiries especially heart-wrenching."
Remember, nearly 8 out of 10 Americans report that they're living paycheck to paycheck, even those making as much as $100,000 a year. Not too many federal employees are making more than that.
The U.S. Postal Service will still operate as it's not effected by the shutdown as an independent agency. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents will still be working, so it shouldn't have too much of an impact on holiday travel, except that stress levels for them will be even higher than during your usual Christmas rush. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid will all operate as usual. Though the Justice Department is one of the agencies subject to the shutdown, Special Counsel Robert Mueller will still be on the job. Customs and Border Patrol agents will also still be on the job not getting paid.
What's going to shut down, probably, the Department of Agriculture's state and local farm service centers and the Federal Housing Administration, which could potentially stop new loan applications and processing and approval of existing applications. Up in the air is the National Parks Service. They'll likely remain open, but visitors' centers and historic buildings within them would probably be closed.
The economic effects will ripple out far beyond Washington, D.C., particularly in those rural communities where Agriculture and Interior and Border Patrol employees live and work. All those Republican congresspeople and senators with rural constituents should be thinking about that right about now.