Michigan Legislative Project #7: State Senate Races (with Cash on Hand figures)
Well, as promised, after a significant family crisis and various issues I’m (mostly) out the other side and I can finalize this rundown on where we set, State Senate wise, with Cash on Hand Figures. I will say that I’m going to say something that puts me out on an island in terms of Democrats in Michigan: We do have an actual shot at winning the State Senate in 2018. Many people think that, due to the deficit in terms of seats (27 R, 11 D), as well as the gerrymander that we have no shot. It is not likely to happen, but I’ll say that seats in which we have a significant candidate (and they don’t have one), close seats from 2014, *and* demographic trends to Dems in other states elections that we *do* have a shot (if we win the Governorship we need 8…I’ll break down the seats and chances at the end). Albeit of the “everything needs to go perfect” variety (I’ll give the breakdown at the very end). So, without further adieu, Here. We. Go:
State Senate District 1 (A large portion of Detroit, what’s south of 94, and Downriver such as Wyandotte, Woodhaven, Grosse Ille and I believe Trenton and Ecorse also)
Incumbent: Coleman Young II (D, not eligible for reelection)
Dems Running: State Representative (District 6) Stephanie Chang website: http://www.stephaniechang.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/stephaniechangforrep/
University Employee & National Guard Officer Nick Rivera. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickRiveraForDistrict1/ (no candidate page I can find).
State Representative (District 2) Bettie Cook Scott (no website but she has a candidate committee)
Republicans Running: ?
Well, we have our primary for the State Senate seat (Rivera was deeply unlikely to be a factor) and it brings in a bunch of extraneous crap. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan championed a change to the Michigan No-Fault Auto Insurance law, which was considered by a number of Dems to be deeply problematic for consumers. A variety of Dems (and, if memory serves, some Republicans but don’t quote me on that) defeated Duggan’s proposed changes. Duggan personally promised to defeat *every* Dem who helped defeat this proposed change. I know Chang was one of the ones who ultimately defeated the change (the Dem caucus who opposed this had their own changes that would likely have lowered rates while preserving the catastrophic care for victims of debilitating accidents but it didn’t get much traction) and, while I’m not sure how Scott voted, part of me thinks that this is part of Duggan’s payback. Time will tell how this primary plays out as every single candidate represents is from (and in two cases represents) a portion of Detroit so they are drawing from the same geographical region (the third State Representative that I know of, Darrin Camileri, represents Downriver and he’s appeared that some Stephanie Chang events and she’s appeared at some of his). Personally? I’m in favor of Stephanie Chang over Cook Scott, but that’s just me.
Michigan State Senate District 3 (Detroit, Dearborn, portion of Dearborn Heights).
Incumbent: Morris Hood III (term-limited)
Announced candidates:
Wayne County Commission Chairman/former State Representative Gary Woronchak (Website: https://www.gary4senate.com/ )
State Representative Sylvia Santana (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votesylviasantana/ )
The race has more or less officially taken shape with Wayne County Commission Chair Gary Wronchak running against State Representative Sylvia Santana. This district was, more or less, designed to elect a Detroit Democratic candidate to the seat and, as there is only one Detroit candidate running, its extremely likely to be Santana (who, as a State Rep, represents Detroit) rather than Wronchak (who represents Dearborn). There had been a small chance for Wronchak provided that another Detroit Democrat had decided to run but that doesn’t appear likely at this point.
State Senate District #6 (City of Taylor, City of Romulus, Van Buren Township, Sumpter Township, Huron Township, Brownstown Township, Westland, City of Wayne)
Incumbent: Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative Robert Kosowski (term-limited, his district covers Wayne & Westland), (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Robert-Kosowski-for-Michigan-State-Senate-237369480085885/ )
State Representative Erika Geiss (Not Term-limited: her district covers Taylor, Romulus, and the tiny portion of Van Buren Township that isn’t in Kristy Pagan’s district), (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electgeiss/ )
This is another safe seat. We have another race where both candidates are effective and could do the job well. If I had to guess I imagine that the primary will break down on a regional basis with Kosowski’s Wayne-Westland comparing to Geiss’s Taylor, Romulus, and Van Buren Township wwith turnout being the decider. I will say that Kosowski is considered the considerably more centrist candidate compared to Geiss (who’s Vice Chair of the Women’s Progressive caucus), plus Kosowski’s kinda considered part of the Westland machine…so I’m kinda rooting for Geiss here. Geiss got into the race later but she’s got decent cash on hand given that ($15,653) while still being significantly behind Kosowski ($63,126).
State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)
Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)
Democrats Running: Psychiatrist/CEO of APEX Behavioral Health-Dearborn Ghulam Qadir (http://drqadir.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GhulamQadirMD/ ), Teacher/Small Business Owner/Casting Agent Dayna Polehanki (http://daynaforsenate.com), Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/DaynaForSenate/) and IMDB page (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0688954/, Twitter: https://twitter.com/daynaforsenate?lang=en ).
Potential Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia)
The Democratic side hasn’t changed as Dr. Qadir and Dayna Polehanki are both running active enough campaigns, both being backed by different area politicians. State Representative Laura Cox (wife of odious former Attorney General Mike Cox) has formally declared for the office, and that likely precludes any other significant Republicans from entering. Both Democrats are good candidates and both have some good people behind them (Polehanki has State Representative Kristy Pagan, Qadir has former Canton Township Trustee Dr. Syed Taj and former State Board of Education President John Austin).
Update: I will say that, in terms of events, I see much more of Polehanki than I have of Qadir, in terms of the Canton/Plymouth area (which seems to have more Dems). Qadir has been fundraising like crazy (raised $98,000+ in 2017 with $92,340 cash on hand), but Polehanki’s last report indicated a narrowing of the gap (she has $35,664 cash on hand, and raised most of that in November & December as she raised only $15,000 total in September & October).
State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)
Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)
Democratic Candidate running State Representative (and former Firefighter) Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Webiste: https://votehenryyanez.com/ )
Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, Dr. Steve Naumovski, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan
Potential Republicans Running: Macomb County Commissioner/former State Representative Leon Drolet.
This district will be a nice test as to Trump’s appeal as we went from winning Sterling Heights and Clinton Township (and coming close in Macomb) to getting shelled in Sterling Heights and narrowly losing Clinton Township (Sterling Heights had Republicans picking up a lot of votes but most of the change in Clinton Township was a shit ton of third party voting). Yanez has won three elections in Sterling Heights so he should have some appeal. Currently Yanez has a very good $65,150 in Cash on Hand compared to $30,900 for Shallal and no reports from Bogdan (who has received the “under $1,000” waiver) or Dr. Naumovski. Currently one in which we have the advantage. If Drolet, who was basically Hipster Tea Party (i.e. he was “tea party before tea party was cool”) gets in then the cash advantage could change, but until then we’ve got things rolling our way.
Cash on Hand: Yanez: $66, 458 total, Cash on Hand: $65,153.
Republicans: Shallal is the only one who reported, he had $35,915 total with Cash on Hand of $30,886 (Bogdan received a waiver and Naumovski hasn’t reported yet). Good news on the money front for Team Dem.
State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield township, Bloomfield township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)
Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)
Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston), State Representative Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield)
Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ ), Jeremy Ross Haines (no campaign website, also his committee has not filed a report yet).
TO start with this is a pretty blatantly gerrymandered district that split ups portions of about 4 different municipalities and fuses them to a block of mostly republican townships. That having been said Bayer is a good candidate with a sound IT background (former team leader for Sun Microsystems, she’s founded her own IT company ardentCause L3C which is a small IT company serving the non-profit sector. Also, update, despite the PAA write-up, Kate Logan does not have a candidate committee on file with the state database and won’t be listed as a candidate until she does, this was my error and I own it.
Fundraising: Bayer: $20,015 total, Cash on Hand $16,055. Republicans: Tedder $73,285 total but $36,164 on Hand, McCready got in in January so no formal amounts for Senate but his State Representative Committee had $42,680 in Cash on Hand.
State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)
Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner
Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/
Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.
McMorrow’s events aren’t just the standard political draws at someone’s house, she’s had a tour of Detroit Bike’s facilities and she’s had events at a local craft breweries. They’re thinking outside the box on this campaign and I really kinda like it (wish I’d have time to get to one of the events but *sigh* no dice). She’s got a good chance. Also, as always, huge self-back patting event: Her campaign Facebook linked to the first Michigan Legislative Project and mentioned it back in October. It appears that the creativity has been helping as McMorrow has a respectable Cash on Hand total of $34,573 which is compared to Knollenberg’s $54,459 which is actually a closer ratio than I expected.
State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)
Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)
Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )
Republicans Running: former State Representative Hugh Crawford (Novi) and State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)
An Oakland County district, and one of the ones I found out about through the PAA report, but Pulver is running an active campaign and Hillary did pick-up Novi in 2016 so maybe parts are heading our way. There are two tough candidates running (though that might be it as fellow Republican State Representative Klint Kesto is running for the 11th Congressional District) though so definitely an uphill climb. Also, a bit of almost ridiculous offensiveness occurred in the Republican primary for a quick second as there was a third candidate in their primary, Mike Saari, who referred to the judge in the Larry Nassar case as a “feminazi” in a social media post and he was more or less forced to drop out.
Fundraising: Julia Pulver - $3,639 total, Cash on Hand - $778.47. Republicans: Hugh Crawford: $46,360 total, Cash on Hand $17,994. Jim Runestad - $134,563 total, Cash on Hand $151,175. Quite honestly, Pulver will need money to have any hope of winning this seat from Runestad, but the district’s set-up still isn’t terrible for us.
State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)
Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)
Candidates: None currently
Potential candidates: former State Representative Bill Lavoy, former State Representative (2005-2010)/former AT&T Michigan Governmental Affairs Executive Director (2011-2013) Kathy Angerer, former State Representative & 2014 nominee Douglas Spade (who’s Facebook page Douglas Spade for State Senate is still being updated)
I have to say, the recruiting for this particular district is disappointing as hell for me. I grew up in this district and the fact that we still don’t have a candidate has me a bit down (I know the Monroe & Lenawee County Dems are more conservative than many people here but there have been periods where they’ve done very well). We have until April so here’s hoping.
State Senate District 21 (Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann (Website: https://seanamccann.com/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanamccann?lang=en )
This one I missed last issue as the race was decided by only about 59 votes and McCann’s decided to give it another shot in a climate much more conductive for him.
Fundraising: Considering McCann didn’t get in until November he’s gone Broadway in terms of fundraising, raising $30,229 in less than 2 months and having Cash on Hand of $28,983. However, according to the Official Reports O’Brien has raised $210,264 this election cycle so far with a Cash on Hand Total of $147,343. McCann’s done a sound job of making up for lost time but he’s still at a disadvantage.
State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)
Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)
Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )
Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton), IT Analyst & former State House Intern Joseph Marinaro
And here we get into long-shot districts that might go to us with an overwhelming wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized areas that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army. There is a primary for the Republicans in the most technical sense of the term as Marinaro jumped in in January but given the profile of both and the money I will be well and truly shoecked if Theis doesn’t get the nominate. This is not one of prime pick-up targets but Dreher does seem like a not bad candidate.
Fundraising: Dreher: $10,420 total, Cash on Hand $7,832. Republicans: Theis $80,058 total, Cash on Hand $51,174.
State Senate District 24 (Clinton County, Eaton County, Shiawasse County, parts of Ingham County – Leroy, Locke, Wheatfield, and Williamston Townships and the city of Williamston)
Incumbent: Rick Jones (Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate Filed: Kelly Rossman – McKinney, retired CEO of Truscott Rossman (Campaign Website: https://www.kellyforstatesenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KellyForStateSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/rossmanmckinney?lang=en )
Republicans running: State Representative Tom Barrett, State Representative Brett Roberts
This wasn’t a seat that was necessarily on anyone’s radar, as this cuts out the most Dem portions of Ingham County and includes right-wing Clinton and Shiawasse Counties. Then a funny thing happened on the way to a “well, whatever” race: Kelly Rossman-McKinney raised $179,755 in 2017 (with $151,000 on hand). In terms of Michigan State Senate races this is a damn near jaw dropping amount (generally, if you have around $50,000 CoH you are doing pretty good). As a basis for comparison Barrett has approx $57,000 CoH while Roberts has…$7,000. While I know at least one somewhat prominent Dem who felt that this wasn’t winnable regardless of the money spent…let’s combine that with effort and see what happens.
State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)
Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative for the 76th district Winnie Brinks (Campaign Site: https://www.winniebrinks.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WinnieBrinksforSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/WinnieBrinks?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor )
Republicans Running: State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73)
The expected happened and Afendoulis has entered the race. It is highly unlikely anyone else significant gets in at this point, so here’s your general election. For what it’s worth Grand Rapids is the mainstay of the district and Brinks has held one seat and the other main one is far more amendable to Dem candidates. Its going to be a shoot-out cash wise as Brinks has $119,246 on hand to Afendoulis’s $220,338 (again $50,000 would be respectable at this point). Brinks is behind but Michigan isn’t the most expensive place to campaign for State Leg in the world.
State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkard to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).
Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)
Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum), State Representative Gary Glenn
Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (Campaign website: http://cynthialuczak.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LuczakforStateSenate/ )
This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with. Daley served as State Representative about a decade prior but lost a primary in the 00s. This is one of the races (along with the 10th, the 22nd, the 29th, and the 38th ) which could determine whether we can pick-up the State Senate in time for redistricting so definitely one worth working on and Luczak has the basis for being a good candidate. Luczak had a relatively disappointing fundraising from Mid-October through Year-End of $9,721.47. This especially stands out as Daley has $53,500 in Cash on Hand and Glenn has $91,700. Fundraising wise this race will need to get on the ball to keep pace.
State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)
Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)
Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)
Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Pennisula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/
This is, outside of the 10th, the 21st, and maybe the 29th the most likely pick-up in the state senate (picking up these races brings us half-way to a split in the State Senate, with Oakland County seats in the 7th, 13th, and 14th bringing up to the brink). Dianda represenats the more Republican portion of the UP seats as a Dem and, further, has a very healthy $80,000 Cash on Hand amount for Year End (By comparison Ed McGroom has $10,700 and Mike Carey has $9,700. Dianda is a relatively conservative State Representative according to the one person I spoke to, but one in the hand…
Overall
Okay, now is the time for you to think that I may be well and truly out there. Why? Because no one is talking about the potential of the Dems picking up the State Senate this year but we do have a shot, though a very long-one. Currently the State Senate sits at 27 Republicans and 11 Democrats, which means we need 8 pick-ups in the case of us winning the Governorship (hey LG Nominee…prepare to sit and break a shit-ton of ties…). Currently our best pick-up options are 10, 21, and 38 (Yanez, McCann and Dianda) based on character of the district, candidate, closeness last time, and the fact that Dianda’s district is split between areas favorable to Dems and areas he’s represented. That get’s us to 14 seats with a needed pick-up of 5 seats.
This brings up seats that are in our favor based on the type of suburban demographics we’ve had work in our favor in Virginia but which don’t get talked about as much due to not having a candidate that gets talked about politically. The districts I’d consider based on this criteria would be Districts 7 (Suburban, well educated Wayne County) and Districts 12, 13, 15 (Suburban Oakland County). Well, in this case we do face tough candidates (Laura Cox in the 7th will be particularly hard) and Pulver in 15 is particularly hard-up fundraising wise they are district we should compete in. And I’d say have a good shot at 3 of the 4, which gets us to 17. That brings us to the 29th as Winnie Brinks is a particularly strong candidate *and* she has the cash to compete for the seat and then we have the 24th, where Kelly Rossman-McKinney’s impressive Cash on Hand total make her a strong upset possibility. In addition we have lesser pick-up possibilities in the current recruiting failure of the 17th district and Cynthia Luczak in the 31st if she gets funding (its not a great opportunity but people in Bay County must like her as she’s going into her 4th term). Everything has got to go right, which admittedly it seldom does, but the possible seats are there: The 10th, 21, 38, 7, 13, 29, 31, and one of 12, 15, 17, 24, or 31, we just need *1* of this last group. It’s a fight, but the first step to victory is believing victory is possible and for the first time in a long time (regarding the State Senate) I believe it’s possible.