DKos member BMScott brought to our attention extremely important research in a comment in the discussion about DKos member FishOutofWater’s excellent diary yesterday: Polar Vortex Splits, record high heat into polar stratosphere , record low arctic sea ice.
An article in the latest edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) takes a grim picture for the next hundred years, and makes it all the more grim:
… the observed acceleration will more than double the amount of sea-level rise by 2100 compared with the current rate of sea-level rise continuing unchanged. This projection of future sea-level rise is based only on the satellite observed changes over the last 25 y, assuming that sea level changes similarly in the future. If sea level begins changing more rapidly, for example due to rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics,then this simple extrapolation will likely represent a conservative lower bound on future sea-level change. In contrast, few potential processes exist to suggest that this estimate is too high. (pg. 3, emphasis added)
We knew that sea levels were rising, due to the melting of the ice sheets, and also due to the expansion of water volume as it is heated. The data from this research says that not only will sea levels continue to rise, but they will do so more quickly over time— the amount sea levels change 20 and 50 years from now will be greater than in the next 10 years.
And we already knew that heavily populated coastal areas, including some cities that are hugely important to national, regional and world economies, will be inundated.
For those not so privileged and secure as many of us here, the future is not so rosy:
Until now, global efforts such as the Paris climate agreement have tried to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, with latest projections pointing to an increase of 3.2C by 2100, these goals seem to be slipping out of reach…
“[We] still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable future,” said Erik Solheim, the UN environment chief, ahead of the upcoming Bonn conference.
One of the biggest resulting threats to cities around the world is sea-level rise, caused by the expansion of water at higher temperatures and melting ice sheets on the north and south poles.
Scientists at the non-profit organisation Climate Central estimate that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be flooded at 3C of global warming…
As a result of global sea-level rise, storm surges and other factors, economists project that coastal flooding could put almost $1tn of Osaka’s assets at risk by the 2070s, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“The costs of protecting cities from rising sea levels and storms are also likely to rise - as are the costs of repairing storm damage,” it said. “Decisions we make today could have a profound impact on the security and culture of the people of this ancient city.”…
The IPCC reported that Alexandria’s beaches would be submerged even with a 0.5-metre sea-level rise, while 8 million people would be displaced by flooding in Alexandria and the Nile Delta if no protective measures are taken. A 3C world threatens far greater damage than that…
Residents of Brazil’s postcard city have plenty of reasons to fear global warming – even if they don’t quite know it. According to Climate Central, a temperature rise of 3C would cause flooding of not just Rio’s famous beaches such as Copacabana and its waterfront domestic airport, but also inland areas of the Barra de Tijuca neighbourhood, where last year’s Olympic Games were held…
Barra is built around a network of heavily polluted lagoons that empty into the sea. The prospect of it being underwater alarmed resident Sueli Gonçalves, 46, who runs pensioners’ health projects, as she and her 23-year-old son Yuri Sanchez carried their shopping past the Olympic Park.
“My God. Oh Jesus,” she said, with a nervous laugh. “I will leave here. I will go to the United States. To Canada.”
The family knew about global warming but were unaware of the potential scale of the impact on their upscale neighbourhood of smart condominiums and a shopping mall.
“Nobody takes it seriously. People do not think long term,” Gonçalves said…
“Shanghai is completely gone – I’d have to move to Tibet!” says resident Wang Liubin, when he is shown projections for the city after 3C of global warming.
When it comes to flooding, the coastal city is one of the world’s most vulnerable. Now one of the world’s biggest ports, the former fishing village is bordered by the Yangtze river in the north and divided through the middle by the Huangpu river; the municipality involves several islands, two long coastlines, shipping ports, and miles of canals, rivers, and waterways.
In 2012, a report from a team of UK and Dutch scientists declared Shanghai the most vulnerable major city in the world to serious flooding, based on factors such as numbers of people living close to the coastline, time needed to recover from flooding, and measures to prevent floodwater. According to Climate Central projections, 17.5 million people could be displaced by rising waters if global temperatures increase by 3C.
Of course, the future is not so rosy for any of us:
In many developing societies, growing pessimism about the prospects for economic advancement is fueling instability. Regions with burgeoning youth populations, such as the Arab world, have been unable to achieve the growth needed to reduce high unemployment rates. Perceptions of growing inequality have resulted in more assertive street politics and populism. At the same time, slower growth has left these nations with fewer resources to devote to economic, humanitarian, and peacekeeping assistance to address these challenges.
Mankind’s relationship with the natural world is aggravating these problems and is a potential source of crisis itself. Last year was the warmest on record, and this year is on track to be even warmer.
Extreme weather, along with public policies affecting food and water supplies, can worsen or create humanitarian crises. Of most immediate concern, sharply reduced crop yields in multiple places simultaneously could trigger a shock in food prices with devastating effect, especially in already fragile regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Compromised access to food and water greatly increases the prospect for famine and deadly epidemics. (emphasis added)
The time to intercede in the dirty work of the carbon profiteers was half a century ago.
It is clear we are not properly preparing ourselves for what conditions on our planet— not just environmental, but social, economic and political— will become in just the next decade or two. If we don’t begin these preparations, the catastrophic effects of carbon combustion induced climate change will fall on every community, every household around the world, here no less than anywhere else.