I am a firm believer in learning from ones defeats. So after yesterday’s legislative loss and after I stopped screaming at the Senate C-Span screen to vent my anger, I asked myself “What Have We Learned?”
First, for those who did not catch what went on in the Senate yesterday regarding DACA legislation, there were a total of three (3) different substitute amendments on DACA that came to the Floor for Cloture votes.
One was the President’s version which was brought to the Floor by Chuck Grassley which contained permanent status for Dreamers and a path to citizenship, but also contained $$ for Trump’s wall and substantial curtailments to “legal” immigration. That went down to defeat with 39 “yes” votes and 60 “no” votes for cloture (Remember 60 “yes” votes are needed for cloture to allow a vote on a Bill).
Another was the Coons / McCain compromise amendment which included permanent status for Dreamers with a path to citizenship and some $$ for “Border Security” (to be used at at Trump’s discretion including a partial wall). It went down by a margin of 52 “yes” to 47 “no” votes.
And last was the “Common Sense Coalition” compromise amendment from Schumer, Durbin, Flake, Collins and Graham which was very similar to the Coons / McCain amendment with some minor additional Republican sweeteners I assume. It fared the best in that it had 54 “yes” to 45 “no” votes (again 60 yes votes were needed to pass).
So What Have We Learned from this?
- First, the good news. We learned that Trump’s Bill containing the maximum Border Wall funding and draconian cuts to “legal’ immigration has little support, going down to a stunning defeat with only 39 Republican Senator voting for it. Assuming all the Democrats voted against it, that means 11 Republican Senators had the courage to vote against Trump. So we now know that any hopes Trump had of curtailing “legal” immigration is dead as a door nail. He doesn’t have anywhere close to the votes needed.
- We learned that Trump, under the influence of White House staff Kelly and Miller most likely, is against any Bill that would protect Dreamers from deportation, period. We know that because when given his Wall for Dreamers deal he originally said he wanted, he moved the goal post to also include a demand for substantial curtailments to “legal” immigration. Also, after saying he would sign almost any compromise bill that passed Congress (which was a lie of course), he threatened to veto both compromise Bills brought to the Senate Floor and had his Homeland Security agency put out a total Bullsh*t press release saying how these Bills would lead to another 911 catastrophe.
- We learned that McConnell is Lucy, once again pulling the football away just when we thought he was going to let us kick it. Now don’t blame Chuck Schumer for accepting McConnell’s offer to allow DACA Bills to come to the Floor in exchange for funding to re-open the government (to be honest, he did allow votes on compromise bills). It was the best deal we could have gotten at that time since the polls showed that there wasn’t support for a prolonged government shutdown over DACA. Schumer knew there was no way McConnell was going to allow a DACA amendment to be part of the CR to fund the government and that a prolonged government shutdown would accomplish nothing except an erosion of support for Democrats and Dreamers. Still, once again McConnell has proven himself to be a dishonest snake. If he truly was interested in the Senate passing a DACA Bill, he would have voted for one of the compromises and encouraged other Republicans to join him. Instead he decided to be Trump’s stooge, just like Ryan.
- We learned that the Court’s recent decisions may have played a role. Two (2) Federal District Courts have placed a stay on Trump’s deportation of Dreamers post the March 5 deadline and require the Executive Branch to continue to accept DACA applications in the meantime (although, who in their right mind would submit an application to this White House knowing that it is more likely to increase your chance for deportation down the road). While I have no evidence to prove this, it is possible that some Republican Senators voted “no” yesterday in part because they knew that the Courts had blocked (temporarily anyway) any actual deportation of Dreamers. I have to wonder if some Republicans would have voted yes if they knew Trump would begin deporting Dreamers on March 5?
So knowing these things, what are our options?
We could force another government shutdown later in March when the latest CR runs out, demanding that the next CR include DACA protection. But while that make us all feel good, I doubt it will cause the Republicans to cave. But if Schumer tries it, I would go “all in” and throw in a demand for an assault weapons ban which could get some Republicans shaking in their boots.
We could continue to seek a compromise that would gain another 6 Republican votes in the Senate. But I don’t see what else we could or should offer at this point to gain those votes, and its fate in the House would still be very uncertain.
I hate to say it, but I think the best course of action is to legislatively do nothing for now. Watch how the Court cases play out. If Dreamers win in the end, they will gain permanent status via the Courts. If Trump wins in the end, he will be forced to decide whether he really wants to deport Dreamers (i.e., call his bluff). It also could change some Republican votes in Congress on compromise DACA Bills in the face of a Court decision that could make deportation of Dreamers possible.
In the meantime, the best action now is to step up street protests for Dreamers as well as phone calls and office visits to vulnerable Republicans to turn up the heat and make them more politically uncomfortable.