Last November, the Trump administration made a subtle but surprising announcement in that it supported the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, a global agreement to reduce certain types of greenhouse gases.
At the Montreal Protocol’s 30th Anniversary meeting, nations of the world came together to discuss how to continue reducing chlorofluorocarbons, or CFC emissions, which have largely been removed from use as hair spray and as coolants. Though the ozone hole is the primary concern, the gases that replace CFCs (HFCs and other variants) are also greenhouse gasses, many times more powerful than carbon dioxide.
The US participation last year in the Montreal protocol discussions on the Kigali Amendment to phase out HFCs was a stark contrast with the administration’s Paris agreement approach. This support for phasing out HFCs was likely driven in large part by the industry’s support for the Montreal Agreement. This was, it seemed, the one international trade agreement that Trump wasn’t going to scuttle for no good reason.
Well, now we’re not so sure. At an event yesterday hosted by the (industry-funded) Hudson Institute, Trump advisor George David Banks told the audience that they are still figuring out what to tell Trump his position should be on this otherwise no-brainer decision.
At this point, the Kigali Amendment has been ratified by enough countries to go into force next year. But will the US ratify? That would mean a vote in the Senate to join an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gases. Could such a thing pass? Actually, yes! But will Trump send the Amendment to Senate to be ratified? That’s less clear.
The industry itself is pretty united behind the agreement--it incentivizes the sale of new products, so they’re not exactly losing anything by supporting it. Even Forbes media CEO Steve Forbes said at the event that he supports the Kigali Amendment.
Jeff Holmstead, a fossil fuel lobbyist who’s rarely on the right side of these issues, said Monday that he thinks the Senate would pass the Kigali Amendment and that the Clean Air Act gives the EPA authority to implement it. However, it is worth noting that his firm is also representing a trade group that supports the treaty and was a sponsor of the event.
According to Banks, however, the Trump administration is still trying to figure out how the agreement benefits US companies, preserves or creates US jobs, and effects the trade balance. Fortunately, a trade group is putting together an economic analysis to answer these very questions. Hopefully it will be the sort of one-page, illustrated memo Trump is capable of reading.
Let’s also hope they hurry up with the release: on Friday Scott Pruitt is scheduled to attend a meeting at the White House, along with someone from the Department of State, where it’s likely Kigali will be a focus of the discussion.
With industry on board, hopefully Trump and the Senate will embrace Kigali. Like we said, this should be a no-brainer. Then again, given Trump’s past comments lamenting the loss of his beloved hair spray, we just have to hope Trump considers the planet’s ozone layer and climate more important than his hairdo.
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