Leading Off
● Italy—parliament (March 4)
The wave of anti-establishment voting spreading across Europe has hit Italy, with both center-left and center-right parties suffering significant losses to parties outside the traditional mainstream. The anti-establishment populist Five Star Movement (M5S) comfortably won the most votes of any single party at 32 percent, and swept the southern half of the country, winning more than 50 percent of the vote in many places.
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The other big winner of the election was the far-right League (formerly the Northern League), which did very well in the north. The party, which has periodically advocated secession for Northern Italy, used an aggressive anti-immigrant campaign to win nearly 18 percent of the vote, up from 4 percent in the last election and its previous all-time high of 11 percent in 1996. The League outpaced its coalition partner, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right populist Forza Italia, which received a disappointing 14 percent.
The other big disappointment was the previously-governing center-left Democratic Party. While it was the second-largest individual party, it received only 19 percent and was easily outpaced by both M5S and the center-right/far-right coalition. Matteo Renzi had seized power in an internal party coup in 2014, then resigned after losing a constitutional referendum. He returned for the 2018 election only to complete his meteoric rise and fall by resigning again.
The new far-left Free and Equal coalition also underperformed its polling but did cross the 3 percent threshold to gain seats in parliament, as did a second far-right party, Brothers of Italy. A pro-EU party in coalition with the Democratic Party just missed the 3 percent threshold but did win an individual seat in each chamber.
While the center-right coalition won more seats and votes than either M5S or the center-left coalition (made up of the Democratic Party and a few smaller allies) it does not have the votes to form a government. As there is little love lost between the League and Forza Italia, the two will probably become separate players in coalition negotiations. Italian President Sergio Mattarella will likely give M5S the first chance to form a government. M5S and any one of the other three major parties would create a relatively stable majority government.
That leaves two big questions. M5S has long touted its opposition to any coalitions or alliances with other parties, decrying them as part of the culture of corruption in Italy. But now on the doorstep of power, will it pull back from that opposition in order to form a government? If it’s willing to make a deal, it can almost certainly form a government and install leader Luigi Di Maio as prime minister.
Secondly, what does M5S really want? The party, founded in 2009, has consistently resisted easy placement on the traditional left-right scale. On some issues, like its strong anti-corruption stance, that works. But never having taken power (though individual candidates won mayoralities in Rome and Turin), it’s never had to make the tough choices of governing. It’s been both pro- and anti-Euro. It’s been strongly anti-immigrant and then pulled back. Its members voted to support same-sex marriage and then the party gave its legislators a free vote on same-sex adoption. Being in the opposition has allowed a party like M5S to be all things to all people, and for its voters to see whatever they want in the party. But that time is likely coming to an end.
If M5S wanted to push an anti-EU, anti-immigrant agenda, a coalition with the League would be an obvious choice. But the two parties don’t get along well, and many believe M5S’s more left-leaning politicians would revolt over an alliance with the far-right. The Democratic Party might be a better fit, but Renzi and other party leaders have called for it to go into opposition. A coalition between M5S and Forza Italia would be a terrible fit on almost every level, but it is also the party most likely to go along with whatever M5S wants in order to stay in government.
If M5S cannot form a government, then the opportunity would likely pass to Matteo Salvini and the League; however, they have no obvious path to a majority. If all options fail, President Mattarella may be forced to call new elections, causing even more uncertainty.
Notable Developments
● Costa Rica—president and legislature (Feb. 4 and April 1)
Costa Rica's first round of its presidential election saw the decline of traditional parties and the rise of right-wing social conservatism. Fabricio Alvarado, an evangelical pastor from the previously fringe ultraconservative National Restoration Party took first place with 25 percent. Former cabinet official Carlos Alvarado, who was running under the banner of outgoing President Luis Guillermo Solis' center-left Citizens' Action Party, came in second with 22 percent. In third place with just 19 percent of the vote was the nominee of the centrist National Liberation Party, despite its long history as one of the country's main parties.
The election now moves to a runoff on April 1, when Fabricio Alvarado stands a strong chance of prevailing in what has almost become a referendum on same-sex marriage. Back in January, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled that Costa Rica's ban on same-sex marriage and other LGBTQ rights was illegal, a decision that is binding under prior treaty agreement. Fabricio Alvarado's party consequently surged in the polls thanks to his anti-LGBTQ zealotry. Carlos Alvarado, on the other hand, supports same-sex marriage, setting up a strong contrast that could hurt the center-left in a country where social conservatism runs relatively strong. And making matters worse for Carlos Alvarado, Solis' outgoing administration has become deeply unpopular thanks to corruption scandals.
Legislative elections went even worse for the left. The leftist Broad Front, which took 13 percent in the 2014 elections, lost nearly all of its seats, while Citizens' Action also suffered more modest losses. Meanwhile, conservative parties (including the right-wing National Restoration Party, Social Christian Unity Party, National Integration Party, and Social Christian Republican Party) just barely won a one-seat majority in the unicameral legislature. However, Costa Rica's fragmented party system could make it difficult for them to enact sweeping changes even if the right-wing Fabricio Alvarado becomes the next president.
● Germany—coalition agreement
Almost six months after the September election, Germany finally has a new government, which looks a lot like the old government. Angela Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor will continue the grand coalition between her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merkel’s faction itself is actually an alliance of two parties: The more conservative Christian Social Union, which competes only in Bavaria, and the CDU, which runs everywhere else. This was the same three-party coalition that was in place during her first and third terms.
Merkel had first attempted to form a four-party coalition with the center-left Greens and classically liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), but FDP leader Christian Linder pulled out of the negotiations in November. Without the FDP, only a resurrection of the grand coalition would prevent either a minority government or new elections, both unprecedented in post-WWII Germany.
SPD leaders, who had ruled out returning to the coalition in the wake of their worst post-war showing, reconsidered and opened negotiations with the CDU. Merkel’s grand coalition governments have been widely seen as deleterious to the SPD’s electoral standing, but pressure to avoid new elections persuaded SPD leadership to again become a junior partner to the CDU. Despite strong pushback from the youth-wing and the left-wing of the party, the SPD membership approved a coalition agreement by 66-34.
Grab Bag
● Colombia—legislature (March 11)
Colombians will vote on March 11 in their first legislative elections since the Marxist FARC rebel group agreed to stop its use of violence and instead participate in the political process under a historic 2016 peace deal with President Juan Manuel Santos' government that ended more than five decades of civil war. Colombians will also elect their next president on May 27 with a June 17 runoff if no candidate wins a majority.
● El Salvador—legislature (March 4)
El Salvador's right-wing opposition scored a big win against President Salvador Sanchez Ceren's ruling left-wing FMLN party, with a coalition of three right-wing parties gaining a majority in the unicameral legislature.
● Northern Cyprus—coalition agreement
Last month we reported that the governing center-left, pro-reunification Republican Turkish Party appeared to have been swept out of power in a blow to center-left President Mustafa Akinci's push for reunification with the Republic of Cyprus. However, despite suffering heavy losses in January's elections, the center-left bloc managed to form a broad coalition with other centrist and moderate center-right nationalist parties, excluding the more hardline right-wing nationalist National Unity Party from government.
● South Africa—President Zuma steps down
Jacob Zuma resigned as president of South Africa in the wake of numerous corruption scandals after his party, the African National Congress (ANC), called on him to resign and threatened a no-confidence vote in the legislature. (South Africa’s president is in many ways more similar to a prime minister, in that they rely on the support of parliament rather than direct elections by the voters.) Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will lead the ANC into the next election, has taken over as president until scheduled elections in 2019.