Donald Trump wants to start a trade war (they are good and easy to win, he tweets) with China, but seems oblivious to the way he might involve the entire world. He doesn’t believe that he would start a global recession, that trade wars can lead to hot wars (since trade ties between countries decrease the chance of wars between them). He’s never heard of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, whereby a Republican Congress helped Herbert Hoover greatly increase the depth and length of the Great Depression. (Even if he had heard of it, this Orangutan would probably claim it only didn’t work because Hoover was a “loser,” and that he, Trump, could make it work because he graduated from Penn’s Wharton School of Finance—which means he’s amazingly smart.)
But wait? A tariff is a kind of tax, right? I didn’t think a POTUS could impose a tax? I remember the Constitution gave that power to Congress. Yep, here it is, Article I, Sec. 8, par. 1.:
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
Then there’s par. 3: To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations. . .
So, that should take care of it, right? I mean the GOP Congress would never vote to impose those tariffs, so that would end it. Right?
EXCEPT: The POTUS sets almost all foreign policy, including trade policy. The senate has to ratify trade treaties. But the POTUS has almost unlimited power to RESTRICT trade against particular countries and, over the centuries of our nation’s existence, Congress has passed various laws that make that power stronger.
Consider: We are at war in Afghanistan and Syria and many other places thanks to that thrice-damned and overly-broad Authorization for the Use of Military Force which Congtess passed on 14 Sept. 2001 (with only Rep. Barbara Lee[D-CA] being smart enough to vote no because it IS overly broad and expansive). That’s the authorization for the “Global War on Terror” that never seems to end these past 17 years and counting!
Well, gentle folk, according to the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, the POTUS, yes, including *45, can hit nations with as high a tariffs as he wants “during time of war.” Well, maybe the courts would challenge that since we haven’t declared war and certainly not with China. But maybe not, Tricky Dick Nixon, who, whatever else he was, was a bright lawyer, used this act to impose steep tariffs on North Korea in 1971, citing the Korean War—which had never technically ended. We had a cease fire, but no peace treaty.
But even if the courts would rule against this broad use of the Trading with the Enemy Act, the Orange Menace has other options. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 allows the president to impose tariffs unilaterally in a “national emergency” caused by a foreign power. *45 could simply say that losing steel jobs to China constitutes a national emergency and punish away.
Finally, the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the POTUS to impose tariffs—as high as he wants—on specific industries. *45 already invoked this act in April of 2017 to review aluminum imports. And now he wants tariffs on steel and aluminum.
For once in his lawless presidency, this Orange Asshole doesn’t appear to be overstepping his authority. He is legally empowered to enact his trade war. He’d be a total dumbass to do so, but Drumpf is the biggest idiot to ever occupy the oval office.
No wonder the stock market dropped 400 pts. yesterday.
Is there a silver lining to this dark cloud? Possibly, if the trade war doesn’t devolve into an actual shooting war, first. (It’s been known to happen.) Drumpf is historically unpopular, for a POTUS with a good economy. He campaigned on numerous bad economic ideas, but, to date, he’s mostly just cruised on Obama's excellent economy—except for that huge deficit exploding tax scam for the rich that Ryan and McConnell helped him hit the nation with at the end of last year. But interest rates are already rising, and so are gas prices. Wages are increasing, but not dramatically. If the tariffs hit, car prices will increase—and so will much else. Higher consumer prices mean an economic slowdown, which means higher unemployment. All of this is bad news—pain for us and our fellow citizens—and for the rest of the world, too. BUT, it could finally drive Drumpf’s approval lower than 30% as we approach November’s mid-terms.
Democrats can campaign against a bad economy and, in January, work to do something about it.
Be warned, however, gentle folk: As people start hurting economically, they will be even more susceptible to “nativist” and xenophobic rhetoric. That is, it’ll be even easier to get Americans to blame immigrants, documented and undocumented, for their problems. Republicans want us to blame “the Other” in our midst instead of “the Putin Puppet” at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.