Maine’s candidate filing (for candidates running with a political party) closed last Friday, and here’s a quick run-down of how the state senate races look now that we know who the candidates are. Map of the districts is here.
SD-1 (northern Aroostook). Incumbent Troy Jackson (D-Allagash) is being challenged by former state rep Allen Michael Nadeau (R-Fort Kent), who beat a verrrrry longtime incumbent in a massive upset in 2012 and then lost to that same person in 2014. The fact that the Republican isn’t from Caribou (the largest town in the district) means that Jackson won’t get blown out there, which is good for him. Jackson is favored for another term. Likely D.
SD-2 (southern Aroostook). Incumbent Michael Carpenter (D-Houlton), who represents the second-reddest district on the map, is being challenged by Christian Putnam (R-Linneus), who seems to be a Some Dude. Somewhat surprising that Republicans couldn’t find a higher-tier challenger against Carpenter. Gonna go with Tilt D here.
SD-3 (Somerset). This was a bit of a disappointment. It’s an open seat, and I had hoped that former state rep Jeff McCabe (who ran in 2016) would run again — he’d have a pretty good chance of winning. Instead, the Dem is Jeffrey Johnson, executive director of an organization called the Children’s Center in Skowhegan, the largest town in the district. Not a bad get, but McCabe would’ve been better. The Republican candidate is state rep Bradlee Farrin of Norridgewock, a good but not great candidate. I’ll go with Likely R here.
SD-4 (Piscataquis). Incumbent Paul Davis (R-Sangerville) is running for re-election in this deep red district. The Dem is former state rep candidate Susan Mackey-Andrews of Dover-Foxcroft. While she’s not a Some Dude, Davis is very popular and isn’t going to lose. Safe R.
SD-5 (Orono, Old Town). Incumbent Jim Dill (D-Old Town) is running for re-election in this reliably Democratic district. The Republican challenger is Keith Kneeland, a selectman in his hometown of Greenbush. Dems haven’t lost this district in over 25 years (one of the longest such streaks in the ME Senate), and that’s not going to change this year. Safe D.
SD-6 (Washington). Surprisingly, first-term Republican incumbent Joyce Maker isn’t running for re-election. The Republican running is former Calais mayor Marianne Moore, a fairly good get for the Reps. The Democratic candidate is Christina Thierren, the town manager of Machias. Both candidates have pretty good profiles, so considering the Republican lean of the district I’ll say it’s Lean R.
SD-7 (Hancock). This is absolutely the Dems’ best pickup opportunity this year. Republican incumbent Brian Langley is term-limited, and popular state rep Louis Luchini (D-Ellsworth) is running for the seat (Luchini happened to succeed Langley in the state House as well). The Republicans did get their best candidate, state rep Richard Malaby (R-Hancock), however considering that the portion of SD-7 outside of both Luchini’s and Malaby’s districts is deep blue, Luchini has a major advantage. A Luchini loss would portend a very bad night for Maine Dems. Likely D.
SD-8 (Bucksport/Brewer area). Popular incumbent Kim Rosen (R-Bucksport) is running for re-election. Challenging her is Democrat Beverly Uhlenhake, a Brewer city councilor. Uhlenhake is a good get for the Dems, but the Rosen name is golden in Bucksport, and the district is a Republican one. Likely R.
SD-9 (Bangor and Hermon). Democratic incumbent Geoff Gratwick is running for re-election, and is being challenged by Republican Barbara Ford of Hermon. Gratwick has defeated higher-caliber challengers by healthy margins in the past couple election cycles – he’s not in much danger. Safe D.
SD-10 (western Penobscot). Republican incumbent Andre Cushing is term-limited in this very red seat, and state rep Stacey Guerin (R-Glenburn) is running. The Democrat running is William Lippincott of Hampden, a bookstore owner. Guerin is heavily favored to retain the seat for the Republicans. Safe R.
SD-11 (Waldo). This is an open seat, as term-limited Republican Mike Thibodeau is running for Governor. The Republican candidate is Jayne Giles of Belfast, a former two-term state rep. Dems have a primary between current state rep Erin Herbig of Belfast and Joseph Greenier of Stockton Springs, who seems to be a Some Dude. Herbig is favored in the primary, and due to her popularity in her current seat, is also slightly favored in the general. Lean D.
SD-12 (Knox). Democratic incumbent David Miramant is running for re-election. Challenging him is Republican Wendy Pelletier of Hope, a member of the Hope Board of Selectmen and a former state rep candidate. This is a Democratic district, and Miramant is strongly favored. Safe D.
SD-13 (Lincoln). Republican incumbent Dana Dow is running for re-election. Challenging him is Democrat Laura Fortman of Nobleboro, former Maine Labor Commissioner. She’s a good get and will be strongly supported by Maine Dems – this is a top-tier race. Tossup.
SD-14 (southern Kennebec County). Democratic incumbent Shenna Bellows is running for re-election. Her Republican challenge is Matthew Stone of West Gardiner, a columnist for the Bangor Daily News. Stone is not a top-tier candidate, however Bellows didn’t get a majority in 2016 (an independent got 19 percent). Lean D.
SD-15 (Augusta area). Republican incumbent Roger Katz is term-limited. The Republican candidate here is the person I expected – moderate state rep Matt Pouliot of Augusta. There’s a Democratic primary between former state rep candidate John Glowa of China and Kellie Julia, a teacher. Either of them would be an underdog against Pouliot. Likely R.
SD-16 (Waterville area). Republican incumbent Scott Cyrway is running for re-election. There’s a Democratic primary between former state rep Karen Kusiak of Fairfield, and Steven Russell, chair of the Winslow town council. Both Kusiak and Russell are fairly good candidates, but Cyrway will be a tough nut to crack. Lean R.
SD-17 (Franklin). Republican incumbent Tom Saviello is term-limited. As I expected, state rep Russell Black of Wilton is running for the Republicans. There’s yet another Democratic primary here between Jan Collins of Wilton, a retired teacher, and Gary McGrane, a former Franklin County commissioner and Jay selectman. Either of the Dems are perfectly solid candidates, but Black is the best candidate the Republicans could’ve gotten, and Republicans have held this district for a long time. Likely R.
SD-18 (northern Oxford). Republican incumbent Lisa Keim, who defeated a three-term Democrat in an upset in 2016 in this heavily white working-class district, is running for re-election. Democratic recruitment here was also somewhat of a disappointment, as I was hoping that popular former state rep Matthew Peterson would run for the Dems. But instead the Dem candidate is James Wilfong of Stow, a local official, administrator, and businessman. Wilfong is still a fairly good candidate, but considering how far this district swung to the right in 2016, I’m pegging this as Lean R.
SD-19 (southern Oxford, northern Cumberland). Republican incumbent James Hamper is running for re-election. Challenging him is Democrat Michael McKinney of Hiram, a former county commission candidate. Hamper is popular and his district has been trending Republican. Safe R.
SD-20 (Auburn area). Republican incumbent Eric Brakey is running for U.S. Senate against Angus King, leaving an open seat. The Republican candidate is state rep Eleanor Espling of New Gloucester, the No. 2 Republican in the state House. The Democrat running is Ned Claxton of Auburn, a physician. Both candidates are good ones, however the lean of the district (it swung heavily Republican in 2016) leads me to rate this Lean R.
SD-21 (Lewiston). Democratic incumbent Nate Libby is running for re-election. Challenging him is Republican Nelson Peters. Libby was unopposed in 2016, but considering how heavily Lewiston swung Republican in 2016, I’ll rate this as Likely D.
SD-22 (north and east Androscoggin). Republican incumbent Garrett Mason is term-limited and running for Governor. The Republican candidate is state rep Jeffrey Timberlake of Turner, while the Dems are running Lois Kilby-Chesley of Durham. Timberlake is a better candidate, which, considering the lean of the district (it voted heavily for Trump), leads me to rate this Likely R.
SD-23 (Sagadahoc). Democratic incumbent Eloise Vitelli is running for re-election. She is being challenged by Republican Susan Wasserott of Woolwich. As long as there are no Green candidates running (Vitelli lost in 2014 due to a Green splitting the vote, and then won the seat back in 2016 in a two-way race against a Republican), Vitelli should be fine. Likely D.
SD-24 (Brunswick area). Democratic incumbent Everett “Brownie” Carson is running for re-election. The Republican challenger is Diana Garcia of Brunswick, a member of the Brunswick Republican Committee. This district is deep blue – Carson has nothing to worry about. Safe D.
SD-25 (Falmouth, Yarmouth). Democratic incumbent Cathy Breen is running for re-election. Her Republican challenger is David Savage of Falmouth, a former state legislator from a decade ago. Considering that this district swung heavily Democratic in 2016 (it is wealthy and well-educated), Breen should be fine. Safe D.
SD-26 (Windham area). Democratic incumbent Bill Diamond is running for re-election. Challenging him is Republican Ryan McDonald, who also ran for this seat in 2016 and was easily defeated by Diamond. The result probably won’t be much different this year. Safe D.
SD-27 (inner Portland). Democratic incumbent Ben Chipman is running for re-election. Republicans actually found a candidate to run here – Joshua Kelton – however it wouldn’t have made any difference if they hadn’t. This district is over 80 percent Democratic, and Chipman is totally safe. Safe D.
SD-28 (outer Portland). Democratic incumbent Mark Dion is running for Governor. The Democratic candidate is Jill Duson, a Portland city councilor. Republicans are running Patrick Martin of Westbrook, who stands no chance against Duson in this heavily Democratic district. Safe D.
SD-29 (South Portland, Cape Elizabeth). Democratic incumbent Rebecca Millett is running for re-election. Challenging her is Republican George Van Syckel of Cape Elizabeth, a former state rep candidate. Millett has nothing to worry about in this strongly Democratic district. Safe D.
SD-30 (Scarborough, Gorham). Republican incumbent Amy Volk is running for re-election in this Hillary Clinton-supporting district. Challenging her is former state rep Linda Sanborn of Gorham. Sanborn is a good candidate, but Volk is a strong incumbent. If Clinton voters want to punish state-level Republicans, this is where they’ll start. But will they? Tossup.
SD-31 (Saco area). Democratic incumbent Justin Chenette is running for re-election. He is being challenged by Republican Eric Stanton of Saco, who is not a top-tier candidate. Chenette will do well. Safe D.
SD-32 (Biddeford area). Democratic incumbent Susan Deschambault is running for re-election. Her Republican challenger is Scott Normandeau of Arundel, a dentist. This is a Democratic district, and Deschambault should be fine. Safe D.
SD-33 (Sanford area). Republican incumbent David Woodsome (R-Waterboro) is running for re-election. His Democratic challenger is John Tuttle, a former state senator who Woodsome defeated 59-41 in 2014. Needless to say, that margin doesn’t inspire confidence. Likely R.
SD-34 (Wells/Berwick). Republican incumbent Ron Collins is term-limited. The Republican candidate here is state rep Robert Foley of Wells, who is quite popular. The Dem is Thomas Wright of Berwick, a former state rep and Berwick selectman. Wright is a credible candidate, but Foley’s popularity makes him a small favorite. Lean R.
SD-35 (York/Kittery). Democratic incumbent Dawn Hill is term-limited. Dems are running state rep Mark Lawrence of Eliot, while Reps are running Michael Estes of York, who ran for this seat in 2016. Since this is a Democratic district and Lawrence is the better candidate, Dems are favored here. Likely D.