Contest
|
Republican
|
Democrat
|
Election Year DPI
|
2018 US Senate Primary
|
62.8%
|
37.2%
|
42.5%
|
2018 Governor Primary
|
60.2%
|
39.8%
|
42.5%
|
2016 President
|
54.7%
|
45.3%
|
43.8%
|
2012 President
|
58.0%
|
42.0%
|
41.9%
|
Congressional Turnout Shows Positives and Negatives
The results at the congressional level yielded surprises both negative and positive, showing that the state will likely be home to some highly competitive contests.
7th Congressional District
The 7th Congressional District has been the subject of mild controversy, which typically would lead to a higher turnout. But overall, turnout in the district favored the Republicans at a level consistent with past Democratic performance. Democrats cast 46.6 percent of the primary vote, which tracks closely to the district’s DPI (44.1%). If the climate in November favors the Democrats, we expect a close contest here in November.
21st Congressional District
The open-seat contest in Lamar Smith’s district drew an impressive turnout, with more than 133,00 votes. While this could still be an unexpectedly close contest in November, the Democrats’ 37.1 percent of the primary vote tracks closely with DPI (41.0%).
23rd Congressional District
The best news of the day came from the 23rd District, a top-tier target that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 general election. Primary turnout favored the Democrats (56.4%), well outpacing DPI (47.0%) and Hillary Clinton’s vote share (51.8%). We expect this district to be a prime pickup opportunity in the fall.
24th Congressional District
This district is looked at as a potential sleeper race, which could be competitive in an advantageous climate. Hillary Clinton received more than 46 percent of the vote here in 2016. Yesterday however, 40.5 percent of the total votes were cast in the Democratic primary.
32nd Congressional District
This is another potentially marginal seat with positive results for the Democrats. According to the preliminary numbers, 49.2 percent of the vote was cast in the Democratic primary, which almost reflects Hillary Clinton’s narrow victory in the district (51.0%).
Mixed Primary Results
CD
|
Democratic Primary Vote Share
|
2016 President
|
2018 DPI
|
TX-07
|
46.6%
|
50.7%
|
44.1%
|
TX-21
|
37.9%
|
44.8%
|
41.0%
|
TX-23
|
56.4%
|
51.8%
|
47.0%
|
TX-24
|
40.5%
|
46.7%
|
40.7%
|
TX-32
|
49.2%
|
51.0%
|
45.7%
|
The results in the upcoming congressional and the legislative runoffs will be another opportunity to assess the overall competitiveness of the Lone Star state, but for now we remain cautiously optimistic that the state holds opportunity in November.
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