Dylan Scott at Vox reviews the vote totals of recent primary and special elections, and finds what has been obvious for the past year and a half:
Turnout among Democratic voters was up substantially over the past few midterm election cycles, according to several early reports, and more Republican voters stayed home. That is the recipe for Democrats to make big gains in the House and possibly the Senate this fall.
According to Politico’s Natasha Korecki, Democratic turnout in Illinois was up 300 percent versus 2014 and up 30 percent versus 2010, the last midterm cycle where there was a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary. Meanwhile, Republican turnout dropped by 30 percent from 2014, when there was also a well-contested GOP governor’s race.
That has been the story of 2018 so far. As the Washington Post’s Philip Bump wrote in this great piece, Democrats have performed so strongly in the various special and primary elections because they have turned out at levels much closer to presidential years than their Republican counterparts.
A 300% increase in turnout for a primary? That’s an energized base.
Jon Herskowitz picks up the thread in Texas for Reuters:
A jump in turnout for Democrats in the Texas primary election on Tuesday strengthened forecasts that anger over U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies could help the party flip congressional seats from Republican control in November.
But in the first U.S. primary of the 2018 midterm election season, Republicans also flexed their muscles. Early returns showed the party that has dominated Texas politics for decades was on track to be well ahead of Democrats in overall primary voters statewide…
Texas Democrats see the party’s best opportunities in the six Republican-held districts where incumbents are not seeking re-election. They also are targeting at least two Republican incumbents whose support bases have weakened, in part due to shifting demographics…
Trump has been divisive in Texas, where he receives about 83 percent approval among Republican respondents and 85 percent disapproval among Democrat respondents, according to polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.
Steve Phillips at The Nation, ties it all together, with his analysis of Conor Lamb’s win in a Pennsylvania special election last month:
Lamb’s win is, in fact, evidence that Democrats have an excellent opportunity to recapture control of Congress this year. But in order to do so, it is critical that party decision makers understand just what a wave is—and what it isn’t.
In a nutshell, a wave happens when large numbers of one party’s base turn out to vote, swamping the ranks of their opponents. It is not a situation where a considerable amount of voters switch their party allegiances.
Electoral gains are built on sound strategy, and that depends on recognizing and understanding what the election results tell us, instead of holding onto a fantasy of who Democrats should target:
Many in the media, however, are already drawing the opposite conclusion about what Lamb’s win means—and what its implications are for November. The New York Times tweeted, for example, that the race was “the latest test of whether Democrats can make inroads with Trump voters.”
This interpretation may make for a good story, but it is bad analysis—and even worse political strategy.
What has actually been winning elections (the only data that counts for something, at the end of the day)? Not appeals to anyone who voted for Trump:
This dynamic—Republicans staying home, while Democrats turning out to vote—is what accounts for Democratic success thus far. In the Pennsylvania race, for example, Saccone only got 53 percent of the vote that Trump got in 2016; Lamb won 80 percent of the vote that Hillary Clinton achieved that same year. Moreover, Lamb over-performed the most in blue Allegheny county—that’s where he clinched the election, not in Trump territory.
Enthusiasm gaps like this are what have historically determined who wins majorities in Congress.
The facts are simply this:
Buying into the myth that these districts are flipping because Trump voters are switching sides can lead to costly misallocations of resources, wasting time, money and energy, in the mistaken belief that it is possible to open closed minds. In fact, Democrats should be spending their precious assets in getting core Democrats to the polls, and not just with Election Day GOTV, but year-round…
What the Lamb win proves is that if enough people who have opposed Trump all along are sufficiently motivated to vote and get their friends and neighbors to vote, then we will have a wave election.
Who should the party, its candidates, and activists target with our our messages and GOTV efforts?
Our true base.
Noel Jones at Berkeley Political Review makes it plain:
How to Win in 2018: Recognize the Plight and Power of Black Womxn
Are black womxn beginning to view the acquisition of their vote by Democrats as a duplicitous hijack, urging them to ditch the Democratic Party altogether? On the subject, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez told the Washington Post: “Let me be clear: We won in Alabama and Virginia because black women led us to victory. Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party, and we can’t take that for granted. Period.”.
But last November, a collection of black womxn officials, activists, and community leaders authored a letter to the Democratic Party accusing executives of exactly that — taking them for granted. Their message was clear: we want more power and recognition within the party we have been avidly, unanimously supporting. The signees, who included state and national legislators like D-CA Barbara Lee, expressed that influential black womxn across the country have been arduously pushing for progressive change in absence of support from the Party infrastructure. They called for a meeting between prominent black womxn leaders and Democratic Party officials to strategize how they can better address the needs of black womxn…
In his 1964 “The Ballot or the Bullet” speech, Malcolm X called out the party. At a time of Democratic majority control, he asked the hypothetical Black listener: “Why, the Democrats have got the government sewed up, and you’re the one who sewed it up for them. And what have they given you for it”?
It seems a fair question for black womxn of the day, who have voted for Democrats in the 90 percent range during the last five presidential elections. Signs of stray became evident as one study found that their belief that the Party best represents their needs dropped by 10% from 2016 to 2017; with a simultaneous rise in the belief that no political party represents them. Black voters have unwaveringly held the highest number of registered voters and ballots cast among racial minorities…
And it turns out, focusing our message and priorities on the issues of most concern to the core of our party, African-American women, is the winning message across demographic groups:
If Democrats wish to upend the trend of black political disenchantment and regain a modicum of credibility, they should address the issues that matter to black womxn the most: affordable healthcare and criminal justice. Other important areas include quality public education and living wage jobs. A 2016 Gallup poll revealed the majority of these concerns are shared by all Americans.
We can’t afford to waste time and resources on wishful thinking.
Too much is at stake.