Folks, some thoughts about Trump’s Wag the Dog gambit on Friday. I think he could lose more than he gains politically.
Now, let me say that war and the human lives it takes are very serious business. And in this case the stakes could be extremely high on many global levels. I have no comments on any of that, though it is terrifying.
But let’s look at this politically. Friday provided a stunning succession of revelations about the Creep in Chief, each more terrifying to Grump Co. than the last. Then, Rachel came on and everything changed. It was war coverage time. A switch was flipped and the scandal was OVER for the rest of the evening.
And this of course is what the whole Wag the Dog strategy is about. That instant transition from scandal to war coverage provides a dramatic illustration of just how powerful war can be as a political deodorant. It’s worth listing the goals of such a strategy:
- Shift the spotlight off the scandal.
- Appeal to American patriotism.
- Impress the nation with leadership and achievement.
- Raise approval ratings to defang the opposition.
However, ALL of these goals have a corresponding risk. You can LOSE on each one of them, and end up worse than before. Let’s look more closely.
First, Trump has serious problems with shifting the spotlight. Having built no case and acting so precipitously in obvious panic, the move is as much a testimony to desperation as it is a serious distraction. At home and around the world, EVERYONE (except the Deplorables) is recognizing the move as a fear-driven convulsion. So far at least, Trump’s panic strike is itself infused with the stink of his scandal.
Of course, if this became a real war, we’d get beyond that. But, as far as we seem to know today, Trump isn’t planning a real war. He lashed out … and that’s about it. Furthermore, there is good reason to think he won't be able to do much more. His hissy fit was designed to avoid bearding the Russians—I think it’s pretty clear this is what Putin allowed him to do. He cannot wage serious war in Syria. He’d have a devil of a time getting authorization for a serious conventional war, but, more immediately, he doesn't have enough attention span to seek one. He can bomb, but he has to beware of hurting Russia and Israel. That lets nukes out, and he can’t even actually bomb the chemical stores because that would endanger Israel! Again and again, we are spared the worst possibilities because this child-mind is so impulsive and lacking in perseverance that he cannot follow through with the evil he imperfectly happy to wreak. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to hope that he will wander off and fail to follow through here.
So what’s a sure way to kill off the buzz you get from launching a war? Fail to follow through. There was a significant moment last night in the briefing. A reporter asked the General about the time frame and the likelihood of sustaining the campaign. The General said, “we accomplished all the targets in our mission.” And no one knew what to say. That’s it. Nothing more to see here. Really. That’s all we got.
Think about the media reaction to this. Nothing jacks the media up like a war. You know the drill: global correspondents checking in, film of air strikes at night, serious voices, military experts to interpret the tactics and technology, and ratings off the charts. Dangling a war in front of the media is like offering porn to … well, to a certain Orange Oaf.
So the media get all cranked up last night and … pfffttt. The media, like everyone else, will respond very badly to an eroticized tease. Although it’s actually hard to imagine Trump being on worse terms with news media not committed to his propaganda, this will actually make things worse. They will return to the scandals with a greater relish and disgust. Distracting the media for just a few frustrating hours will likely exacerbate Drumpf’s problems.
And if the media are disappointed, what about Racist Resentment, U.S.A.? All dressed up for a war, and nowhere to go. Of course,they will not TURN on Trump as such. But, the impulse to let the Would-Be Tyrant lead them to a glorious ecstasy of sadistic triumph will be blunted. I don’t think two hours of anonymous missile strikes will stir up the base enough to raise those poll numbers. It will just be one more example of Trump disappointing his supporters. Cognitively, they never seem to notice. But morale sags a bit each time they open their mouths for red meat and end up with a drop of gruel.
On the other hand, opportunities remain for Trump. If somehow a sustained campaign could be developed, if some sort of tangible success could be cited, if Trump could be shown to be making good on his MAGA Machismo, then we’d have a problem. And Russia is a wild card in all of this. I do not understand their game. They COULD be setting their puppet up to look good. But what about the UK and France being involved? What is really going on there?
In the end, I can’t think that this premature discharge of impotent rage is going to accomplish anything in the century-old cauldron of the Middle East. I don’t really see how Trump can develop a sustained campaign. I think he will end up, as usual, looking feckless, stupid, and impotent.
And if that happens, I think he will lose more than he gains. Remember—diverting attention with war also shifts Trump’s meager attention span from Mueller and Rosenstein. And perhaps alleviates his rage enough to reduce the immediate threat of a Rosenstein firing. A few days of delay in pulling that trigger could be crucial in giving Mueller and Rosenstein time to roll out at least parts of the initiative.
Trump is perhaps in more trouble now than he was when he setout to Wag the Dog. And if Syrians don’t have to pay with their lives, this could be a good thing.
OK. Tell me how naïve I am.