Recently the first quarterly campaign finance reports were published and the California congressional campaigns show evidence of blue wave. Republican incumbents have raised about $19 million. Democratic incumbents have raised $40 million.
Incumbents typically raise more money than the challengers. Majority members typically raise more than minority members. And vulnerable majority members raise the most money.
For better or worse, congressional politics has become a team sport. The cumulative amounts of money that each team raises makes a difference because when a campaign gets serious, the safe incumbents will transfer money to leadership funds who will then fund the close races.
There are 12 Republican incumbents (two Republican retirements) and 39 Democratic incumbents. The 24th CD is potentially competitive (but not really), but the 39 Democrats are not seriously challenged. All Republican incumbents are being challenged. Some challenges are highly charged, others are a little less likely. Democrats will make progress in California. We just don’t know how much progress.
Republicans are defending 14 seats with $19 million in cash. Democrats are assaulting those seats with $40 million in cash. Money is not the only factor in campaigns—not even the most important factor. But it is one factor that we can measure. By this measurement, I think I can see the formation of a blue wave.