On Tuesday night, Republican Debbie Lesko defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the special election for former Rep. Trent Franks' vacant House seat, but pretty much no one thinks that the outcome represents good news for the GOP. Prior to the election, the universal narrative across the spectrum had rightly concluded that a narrow Lesko win would still mean that Republicans were in heaps of trouble heading into the November midterms, and indeed, her 52.6-to-47.4 escape offered no solace to her party.
It's hard to understate just how red Arizona's 8th Congressional District is. Since it came into being in its present form following the last round of redistricting, this seat has never hosted anything resembling a close election. Just take a look at its electoral history:
| Race |
(D) |
(R) |
Margin |
| 2018 House (special) |
47.4% |
52.6% |
5.2% |
| 2016 President |
37.0% |
58.1% |
21.1% |
| 2016 House |
--- |
68.6% |
| 2014 Governor |
33.6% |
61.2% |
27.6% |
| 2014 Atty. General |
39.4% |
60.6% |
21.2% |
| 2014 Sec'y of State |
41.0% |
59.0% |
17.9% |
| 2014 Sup't Pub. Inst. |
43.9% |
56.1% |
12.3% |
| 2014 House |
--- |
75.8% |
| 2012 Senate |
38.9% |
56.3% |
17.4% |
| 2012 President |
36.9% |
61.7% |
24.8% |
| 2012 House |
35.1% |
63.4% |
28.3% |
Prior to Tuesday’s election, Republican candidates had carried this district by an average of 21 points—and that doesn’t include the two times Franks didn’t even face a Democratic opponent. In other words, this is simply not the kind of district where Republicans should have had to fork over a penny, yet GOP groups (including the RNC, which seldom gets directly involved in House races) spent almost $1.3 million to save Lesko. Outside Democratic organizations put in just $155,000 to help Tipirneni—who, by the way, has said she'll run again in November.
And while Republicans have engaged in special pleading of one sort or another after every special election loss or close shave, they have no excuses here.
Lesko, a former state senator, was a bog-standard Republican candidate with no obvious flaws—though she will reportedly join the nihilist House Freedom Caucus, which probably won't endear her to the disgusted GOP voters who crossed over to support her opponent. Perhaps Lesko's worried about a primary challenge, which would really be a sight to see.
But whatever happens, this is yet another data point in a scary spreadsheet that foretells serious problems for Republicans everywhere this fall.
