A story I’ve been following since last October may have more to do with why North Korea is opening to a treaty with South Korea than any political or diplomatic factors. At that time, several news sources were reporting that Mount Mantap, the site of North Korea’s underground nuclear tests, had partially collapsed. Although two other areas nearby are thought to be capable of continuing tests, two recent scientific papers, one published this month and one accepted for publication soon, indicate the damage to the main testing area is extensive, but carefully avoid speculating whether that damage means North Korea’s testing program is being forced to end, or scale back, because of the danger of radioactive exposure so near China and Russia.
Could President Trump be the beneficiary of dumb luck, like President Reagan did when the Soviet Union wanted out of the nuclear arms race in the 1980s? And, like Reagan, squander the magnitude of the opportunity due to his own short-sightedness?
“Tired mountain syndrome” arises when repeated nuclear tests weaken the geology of the area:
Last week, North Korea announced that it will cease all nuclear testing and will shut down its main testing facility at Mount Mantap. Although some believe the decision came because of easing tensions between the country and the world, others think Mount Mantap may have come down with a bad case of "tired mountain syndrome."
But what exactly is tired mountain syndrome, and how does a mountain "catch" it?
It turns out that repeated nuclear blasts can weaken the rock around underground nuclear test sites, eventually making them unsafe or unusable — which might have happened with North Korea's preferred testing grounds.
Why Is North Korea Shutting Down Its Nuclear Test Site?
Yasemin Saplakoglu
Live Science
April 27, 2018
The collapse last September was speculated to have been capable of releasing radioactive dust if the collapsed rock chimneys had briefly exposed the underground cavities created by the blasts. I remember wondering at the time if China and Russia might mind such a nuclear cesspool being located so close to their borders, and the effect on people nearby in North Korea if they have already been exposed.
I haven’t been able to find any authoritative information on whether anyone has insight into whether that kind of situation is unfolding inside an opaque news hole like North Korea and it’s northern neighbors, but just shelved the news from last fall — until a burst of articles in the past few weeks and two journal papers brought the idea back to mind. The article that piqued my interest last fall was from December, when a natural earthquake in the same area occurred:
A 2.5-magnitude earthquake has been detected in North Korea near where the country recently conducted a nuclear test, Seoul's weather agency said.
The tremor occurred at 7.45am on Saturday in Kilju, North Hamgyeong Province, around 2.7 kilometres away from the Punggye-ri nuclear site, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
…
"The quake is a natural one and it is believed to have occurred in the aftermath of the sixth nuclear test," the KMA said.
The September atomic explosion triggered an artificial 6.3-magnitude earthquake at the test site, monitors at the time said. It was almost 10 times more powerful than the 10-kiloton test carried out by the North last year, according to South Korean experts.
Earthquake detected near North Korea nuclear site
by Harriet Agerholm
The Independent
December 2, 2017
Maybe Mother Earth is tired of being messed with so carelessly. No one seems to know if this situation is driving the renewed interest by North Korea in denuclearization. It does seem like more than diplomatic brilliance by Trump’s crack team </snark> could be driving things. If a tired mountain is the reason, our intelligence community should have more insight into the situation and a competent President would be able to exploit it for our maximum benefit.
As it is, at least we may be able to wrest a narrow victory in this longstanding problem, even with the wrong man in the Oval Office. At the very least, it makes more sense out of the situation, and the speed at which diplomatic progress seems to be moving, than other explanations I have seen.
Something to keep an eye on. Hopefully the collapse isn’t turning the whole area into a nuclear mess the other nations of the world will have to clean up because a mountain was pushed too far by an idiot with more bombs than brains.