House Speaker Paul Ryan has absolutely no intention of retiring we keep hearing, as we keep hearing about his underlings jockeying for position to replace him. But the two most talked about, Reps. Steve Scalise (R-SC) and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), insist that really, they don't have any interest at all in shoving Ryan out the door. Not at all.
They're closely monitoring the moves of the other and quietly courting Republicans who could help either of them clinch the top post, according to 20 GOP lawmakers and aides interviewed for this report.
Neither is actively rounding up votes at this point, and both downplayed the possibility of a looming clash. Scalise said in an interview that he would not challenge McCarthy for speaker—"I'm not running against Kevin for anything,” he told POLITICO—while McCarthy said he's focused solely on keeping the House in November and pursuing President Donald Trump's agenda.
But Scalise also expressed interest in leading the conference someday—remarks that only intensified simmering speculation in GOP circles about his intentions. Adding to the intrigue, some of Scalise's allies have urged him to be ready should McCarthy falls short for speaker, as he did in 2015. And some of McCarthy's allies discount Scalise's vows not to mount a direct challenge, noting Scalise's willingness to attempt to leapfrog more senior Republicans in the past.
"Everyone is talking about this,” said one veteran Republican House member who requested anonymity in discussing the brewing rivalry. "We're sizing them up, seeing who would be a better fit. It's the prism that we look at them through now.”
McCarthy is positioning himself as Trump's "guy" on Capitol Hill, and has been working with the administration on the budget rescission idea, as well as a potential line-item veto vote, which is a pretty ridiculous thing but that means Trump will love it. He's also been working closely with Vice President Mike Pence and raising huge amounts of money for Republicans, so there will be members who owe him.
Scalise, on the other hand, has the Freedom Caucus nihilists. As Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), a Freedom Caucus member, told a local Alabama radio station last month, the "talk primarily is focused on Steve Scalise." They see him as "somewhat of a heroic figure because of what he went through with the baseball shooting. […] And then, he's a little more conservative than Kevin McCarthy and thus, might be better suited."
If all this is sounds like so much chicken counting from rotting eggs, it pretty much is. Ryan so far hasn't said he's not going anywhere. More importantly, it's looking more possible by the day that Republicans won't be picking the next speaker. The fun part of all this is that Ryan just keeps getting smaller and smaller and smaller.