Send in Joe!
Early polls give Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen an edge over GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the race to fill Republican Bob Corker's Senate seat, but she has the clear edge when it comes to money.
That's where Bredesen hopes former Vice President Joe Biden comes in.
The former Tennessee governor's cash flow could get a boost at a Tuesday fundraiser, where attendees at a private home in Nashville will pay exorbitant prices to get a glimpse at Biden – who is touted as a strong contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
Biden is slated to be the "special guest" at an afternoon fundraiser described as "coffee and conversation" with the former VP and longtime senator, according to an invitation provided to CNBC through sources familiar with the event. The campaign is charging as much as $10,000 for each attendee followed by a $5,000 fee and a base entrance charge of $2,500 according to the invitation.
The event is being sponsored by Bredesen's joint fundraising committee, the Bredesen Victory Fund, which supports the campaign and the Tennessee Democratic Party. The funds at the lunch are expected to be divided between Bredesen's campaign and the states party's coalition, the invite says.
The opportunity to flip this seat is real:
In the race for U.S. Senate, 45 percent of Tennessee registered voters said they would choose Bredesen if the election were held tomorrow, while 35 percent said they would select Blackburn. Another 17 percent said they weren’t sure, and the rest declined to answer.
“Bredesen is off to a good start, and Blackburn has some ground to make up,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at MTSU. “But neither candidate has a majority, and with 17 percent undecided, four months to go until the primary and another three after that until the general, this is still either candidate’s race to win — or lose.”
Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll, said Bredesen appears significantly more successful at attracting voters from outside his own party than Blackburn is at attracting voters from outside hers.
“For example, 45 percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen, while only 33 percent of independents said they would vote for Blackburn,” Reineke said.
“Bredesen attracted more cross-party voting, too,” Reineke added. “Twenty percent of Republicans said they would vote for Bredesen, while only 5 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Blackburn. Our polling during Bredesen’s time as governor showed him consistently attracting appreciable support among Republicans and independents as well as among his fellow Democrats. That record may be paying dividends for him now.”
Need more reasons to be optimistic about our chances? Here are three more reasons:
The first is that even taking into account the presidential tilt of the state (in addition to the polling) in no way makes a perfect prediction. Candidates and campaigns still do matter. There are a number of red state Democrats who won election in 2012, when the presidential tilt of a state was important in forecasting a result (albeit less than it was in 2016). Bredesen could be one of those victorious red state Democrats this year.
The second reason is that we sometimes have a bias toward very recent history in predicting. Just because the presidential tilt of a state has become more and more important in explaining Senate results doesn't mean the trend will continue. We've already seen
in special elections so far this cycle that Democrats have been mostly outperforming the presidential tilt in red states. Without Barack Obama in the White House, we could see the presidential tilt matter less than it did in the most recent years.
The third reason is that Trump just isn't that popular in Tennessee. His approval rating in the Middle Tennessee State University poll was just 50%, a far cry from the 61% of the vote he received in the 2016 election. While Bredesen's early lead may be buoyed by Trump's low approval rating relative to his share of the vote in 2016, it may not be, and the chance of a reversion to the presidential tilt in the previous election may not be as high as it would be in a neutral political environment.
All that being said, if there is a chance of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Tennessee, this is the environment in which to do it.
And look who is holding his nose:
Retiring U.S. Sen. Bob Corker is getting behind Republican Marsha Blackburn in her effort to succeed him.
"Now that the Republican primary has essentially concluded, I am sending a contribution to Representative Marsha Blackburn's campaign and wish her well in her race for the U.S. Senate," Corker, a Chattanooga Republican, tweeted today from his personal Twitter account.
The move comes after the Tennessee Republican Party's State Executive Committee over the weekend denied GOP primary ballot access to seven of Congressman Blackburn's competitors, including Williamson County businessman Darrell Lynn, who had pledged to spend $5 million of personal wealth in the Aug. 2 primary.
In a statement, Blackburn thanked Corker for "his support and encouragement as we work to unify the Republican party and defeat Democrat Phil Bredesen in November. We will continue to take our campaign to every corner of the state and talk with Tennesseans about how we can get the United States Senate back to work and pass President Trump's agenda."
We’ve been pulling off a lot of upset victories lately. Let’s keep it up! Click here to donate and get involved with Bredesen’s campaign.