While much has been talked about the 2018 US House of Representatives and US Senate elections, and rightfully so, given national implications and that both have legitimate chances of flipping, not nearly as much has been said about state level races despite the fact that tons of impactful policy comes from the state level. And the Democrats have arguably their best impact for sweeping change in the governorships (though US House is close). I also realized that my own ratings, while very detailed for House and Senate, have been rather lacking for the governorships, so I decided to go all-in on this piece. On the whole, the race ratings for the governor’s races haven’t really changed since January (a few shifted slightly), but we’ve gotten a lot more clarity on most races, so I’ve made each writeup more detailed, while also taking a longer examination at the (current) Safe races. Sit back, and enjoy the ride:
Safe D:
California (Open):
The top two primary is a terrible system. You’re going to end up hearing a lot about it in the next three weeks leading up to the California Primary in June, but it has the potential to wreak havoc in a lot of House races, along with this gubernatorial race. In California, all candidates from all parties run on one ballot and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the general election. In the CA Senate Election, Republicans are very likely to get left out of the top two general election, like they did in 2016’s Senate election. But in this gubernatorial election it’s much more up in the air. The party is desperately trying to avoid getting shutout, since having no Republican candidates for either Senator or Governor could crush GOP turnout and result in the loss of 7 or more House seats, almost a third of what Dems need nationally to flip the chamber. The GOP knows they have no shot of actually winning the governorship, hence the Safe D rating in this super blue state, but they just need a candidate to make it to the general election. Here’s what we know: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is going to make the general election. However, who comes in second is the important question. Will it be GOP businessman John Cox or former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D)? Polling is mixed and it will likely be close, yet the result has huge implications for the House. The general election will be a snooze but the primary should be a barn burner.
Hawaii (David Ige):
The first of two Safe D races with competitive primaries to unseat incumbent governors is out in Hawaii. One of the bluest states of all, the GOP has very little chance of winning the general election, so the real election for Hawaii’s governor in 2019 will be the Democratic Primary on August 11. Governor David Ige, who primaried former Governor Neil Ambercrombie in 2014, is on the verge of suffering the same fate himself thanks to poor approval ratings and a high profile challenge. US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01) is vacating her seat in Congress to take on Ige and at this time, she’s a favorite to unseat Ige thanks to the one poll we have of the primary. However, both Ige and Hanabusa have huge leads on the GOP options, so this is Safe D no matter who wins the primary.
New York (Andrew Cuomo):
Liberals are looking to topple Andrew Cuomo after years of his refusal to embrace the left wing of the Democratic Party. Challenger Cynthia Nixon is the hope for the liberals and with a September primary, she’s got time to do it. I still consider her a clear underdog against the powerful Cuomo, but Cuomo has gone from polling in the mid-60s to just scraping 50% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. Meanwhile Nixon is up to 30%. Still a long way to go, but there’s room to grow. Given that New York is an ultra-blue state, this is a Safe D race, with the GOP nominees being pretty weak, so all the intrigue here is also in the primary.
Likely D:
Oregon (Kate Brown):
Brown became Governor in 2015 after succeeding the disgraced John Kitzhaber. She had to win a Special Election to serve the remaining 2 years of Kitzhaber’s term in 2016, winning by 7.8%. Since becoming Governor, her approval ratings are mostly meh, but she’s in a blue state and in a pro-Democratic environment, which helps her cause immensely. The primary was held this past week, with State Rep. Knute Buehler emerging as the GOP nominee, meaning it’ll be a KB vs KB matchup in the general election. Though we don’t have much polling here, the state and race fundamentals strongly favor Brown, which is why this race resides in Likely D.
Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf):
This race has moved from Lean D → Likely D since I last updated my governor’s ratings in January. Tom Wolf has never had great approval ratings and he became Governor by beating a very unpopular incumbent in 2014 (Tom Corbett), so he should be somewhat vulnerable. Lucky for him, Republican nominee Scott Wagner is a pretty awful candidate. Like PA GOP Senate nominee Lou Barletta, Wagner is too conservative for a swing state like Pennsylvania, and he’s not at all popular with the voters, polling very poorly. In the one head-to-head poll of Wolf and Wagner that meets the sample size criteria to be considered scientific, Wolf leads Wagner 47-31, with that mid-double digit lead and close to 50% vote total suggesting that this isn’t a close race now, and it probably never will be. The GOP whiffed here in recruiting and are likely to suffer the consequences by fumbling away a shot at a winnable governorship.
Lean D:
Colorado (Open):
Democrats have won three straight gubernatorial elections in Colorado and are looking to make it 4 in 2018. At this time, I consider them the favorite to do so. The Republican side has had a bit of a change since last time I updated the ratings, with Cynthia Coffman, Attorney General who I considered the favorite, being eliminated from contention after a poor showing at the state convention. This has left State Treasurer Walter Stapleton as the Republican favorite. The Democratic side is still a mix of US Rep. Jared Polis, former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy, and Lieutenant Governor Donna Lynne. The primary will be held in June so there is still a bit of time to go on that side. The reason I consider Democrats the favorites in this race is because the candidates on both side seem like pretty generic democrats/republicans, and this is a Dem leaning state in a Dem leaning environment with a popular Democratic Governor. That concoction renders a small Democratic edge until we get more polling.
Illinois (Bruce Rauner):
Since January, incumbent Republican Governor of Illinois Bruce Rauner barely survived a primary challenger from his right in the form of Jeanne Ives, winning by just three points in March. This left him as damaged goods, and his horrible approval rating means he’s probably toast in November. His one asset is money, which is negated by Democratic nominee JB Pritzker, a fellow billionaire with an even larger net worth than Rauner. It will be a very expensive race, but the writing is probably on the wall for Rauner. This is a very blue state and Rauner is a Republican and he’s very unpopular (26% approve, 60% disapprove). Oh and this is a Democratic leaning environment. None of that bodes well for the incumbent and every poll between Rauner and Pritzker has the Democrat up by at least 13 points, with vote shares very close to 50%. Rauner is the most vulnerable incumbent Governor in the country and it will take a decent sized miracle to save him at this point. This race is a great Democratic pickup opportunity, and it’s why I have the race rated at Lean D.
Maine (Open):
The second favored Democratic pickup is in Maine, where outgoing Republican Governor Paul LePage has a poor -12 net approval rating (41/53), with his bombastic, flamethrower style of politics being unpopular with voters. An unpopular Republican incumbent helps to tip the scales towards Democrats, as does the fact this is a blue-leaning state (D+4) in a pro-Democratic environment. Also helping the cause is the fact that Democrats have the strongest candidate in the race, Attorney General Janet Mills. She is leading the one primary poll we have here by a good margin and is a good bet to be the next Governor of Maine at this point in time. Republicans have LePage-picked favorite Mary Mayhew, along with businessman-who-used-to-be-an-independent Shawn Moody among the front of the pack. Both of them have their upsides and downsides as candidates, but because we have no polling here, we have to trust the fundamentals, and those which we mentioned, Democrats with the wind at their backs nationally, along with favorable state dynamics and a strong candidate, land this race in Lean D.
Minnesota (Open):
Well things have gotten weird in Minnesota since January, with former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty entering the race to succeed outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Dayton. Pawlenty served from 2003-2011 and his entrance into the race got predictable reactions out of DC pundits, many of whom moved this race from Lean D → Tossup. I’m not willing to do that because there are lots of reason to be very skeptical about Pawlenty’s candidacy. First off, he never got anywhere close to a majority in both of his statewide wins, taking 44.4% and 46.7% in 2002 and 2006, respectively. That suggests his support wasn’t that strong. Secondly, he wasn’t all that popular of a Governor, with polls from 2010 finding his approval rating in the 40% range. Thirdly, since exiting office, he failed at running for President and since has been serving as a bank lobbyist. Wonder how that recent resume could cause him some trouble? Finally, while the beltway pundit types hailed him as the Minnesota GOP’s great hope, the Minnesota GOP doesn’t seem to be thinking the same way, with T-Paw’s former Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau endorsing his primary opponent Jeff Johnson! That’s pretty darn embarrassing for someone with the supposed political chops of Tim Pawlenty. All in all, his candidacy is eerily similar to Evan Bayh’s failed Indiana Senate return last year and it wouldn’t shock me if Pawlenty didn’t even get the nomination. Meanwhile, US Rep. Tim Walz is the favorite on the Democratic side and with Donald Trump unpopular in Minnesota and with Mark Dayton a popular Governor, I continue to maintain that Democrats are favorites in this race until polling tells me otherwise.
Rhode Island (Gina Raimondo):
Raimondo won this governorship by 4.5 points in a messy three way race back in 2014 and has proceeded to become not very popular, despite being a Democrat in a very Democratic state. This leaves her somewhat vulnerable entering the November 2018 elections though it’s hard to tell how vulnerable. Mayor of Cranston and 2014 GOP nominee Alan Fung is back for another swing at Raimondo and he should be a pretty solid opponent. Raimondo hasn’t officially announced her re-election campaign, but all signs point to it happening. We have one independent poll of a Raimondo-Fung matchup, giving Raimondo a 2 point edge with tons of undecideds, so it’s hard to get a gauge on how the race will actually develop. But much the way a good Republican environment carried the unpopular Republican Governor Sam Brownback of Kansas to victory in 2014, the same could happen here for the Democrat Raimondo, which is why I leave this race in Lean D.
New Mexico (Open):
This race is very similar to the one in Maine. New Mexico is also a Democratic-leaning state in a pro-Democratic environment with an unpopular Republican Governor (Susana Martinez) on the way out the door. For about a year this has been the most likely Democratic pickup and it continues to stay this way. The Democratic favorite remains US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, while the Republican favorite remains US Rep. Steve Pearce, whose last statewide run ended very poorly, with Pearce being far too conservative for this light blue state. It’s hard to see how this one goes any better in 2018’s environment and with the state fundamentals not in his direction. Furthermore, Pearce’s own internal poll has him down 2 points, which would suggest he’s really trailing by 8 or so points, which is not a place you want to be at this point in the campaign. Democrats are clear favorites to flip this governorship with Grisham at this time.
Tossup:
Alaska (Bill Walker):
Alaska is the only state with an Independent Governor, pseudo-Democrat Bill Walker. Walker identifies as an independent, but he consolidated his ticket with the Democrats in 2014, and so I largely count him as one. Additionally, Democrats have no candidate in the race in 2018, clearing the field to give their support to Walker. For awhile, it was thought that former Senator Mark Begich might get in the race, but I think most Democrats would rather support Walker and let Begich save a political comeback for 2020, where he could run to get his old Senate seat back and put a very red state in play. Walker, the incumbent, has bad approval ratings and is therefore vulnerable, but the GOP field to knock him off isn’t the strongest. The frontrunner is State Senator Mike Dunleavy, who is very conservative and Walker could position himself as a sensible centrist against a far-right ideologue, giving the weak governor a step up. Dunleavy released an internal poll, showing him leading 47-41, which, given the house effect on internal polls, probably means it’s a tied race. Ivan Moore research, a not great firm with a small Dem lean, has Walker up 51-44. If I had to guess, Walker is probably leading at this time, but it’s a small enough edge that this is a tossup.
Connecticut (Open):
When I last left this race, I described Ned Lamont as the big wild card and since then, Lamont has officially entered the race. The former businessman is notable for running a liberal anti-war primary challenge against hawkish and centrist former Senator Joe Lieberman back in 2006. Lamont won that primary but then Lieberman proceeded to run third party and with the backing of Republicans who abandoned their party’s nominee (he finished with 9%), Lieberman beat Lamont 49-42. The losing effort left him as a tragic liberal icon among the Connecticut Democratic Party. He tried to parlay that name brand into the governor’s nomination back in 2010, losing to current incumbent Governor Dan Malloy. That is very useful for Democrats because Malloy’s popularity is a dumpster fire, with approval ratings in the 20% range, which has gutted the state party’s prestige and narrowed the legislative majorities to uncomfortable margins in a reliably blue state. Any Democrat running is going to have try and disassociate themself from Malloy for those reasons, but Lamont is in a very good position to do so, given that he lost that primary challenge to Malloy years earlier. He also has the name recognition to be a very formidable foe for the Republicans, who endorsed Mark Boughton, Mayor of Danbury. Businessman Bob Stefanowski released a poll showing himself leading the primary by a lot, but it was a McLaughlin poll, so take it with the entire carton of salt. Boughton seems to be the frontrunner at this stage, with the Democrats clearing the field for Lamont, who has taken Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz as his running mate (she was formally running for this office). The only general election matchup poll of Lamont vs. Boughton found Lamont up 10, 50-40, and he’s certainly a boon for Democratic chances compared to January. This race is starting to tilt towards the Dems, but is still a tossup until we get more polling.
Florida (Open):
Winning the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee has eluded Democrats since 1994, but they have a great opportunity to finally do it in 2018. Rick Scott is term limited and running for Senate, leaving the seat open in a swing state, one where Donald Trump will be unpopular in November, giving Democrats an opening. The Republican side has a messy primary, with US Rep. Ron DeSantis (FL-06) being the Trump-endorsed candidate, while former US Rep. and Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam being a strong contender. Putnam has spent the last 8 years at the state level simply so he could build a massive war chest of astonishing proportions, and he’ll need it against DeSantis. The polling shows a close race between the two with lots of undecideds and neither seems particularly stronger at this time. The Democratic side has a primary that has evolved into a race between former US Rep. Gwen Graham, daughter of former Governor Bob Graham, and Mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine. Levine is a wealthy businessman who has the potential to spend a lot, and since he hails from the SoFlo area, it’s a big population center to have a base in. Levine has led most of the recent Democratic primary polls, but with tons of undecideds and Graham being the establishment candidate, this is a pretty clear tossup primary between the two. The general election is also a tossup. We only have one high quality poll of the general election matchups, and it had both Levine and Graham leading DeSantis and Putnam, albeit with lots of undecideds. If I had to assign an edge, I’d say Democrats are tiny favorites given the environment and the potential for tiredness after 20 years of Republican control in Florida but it should be a very competitive general election.
Michigan (Open):
My home state of Michigan has a very interesting gubernatorial election, with competitive primaries on both sides. After 8 years of the now unpopular Rick Snyder, the seat is open for either party’s taking. On the Republican side, Attorney General Bill Schuette and man-who’s-wanted-to-be-governor-for-30-years has Donald Trump’s endorsement yet has been unable to put the race away. Snyder-backed Lt. Gov. Brian Calley has suddenly made it a race, with Schuette still polling in the 30s and Calley in the 20s, leaving high undecideds and lots of uncertainty. It’s starting to get nasty leading up to the August primary, with Calley running ads that makes it appear that he’s not too concerned about the prospect of tarnishing Schuette’s name so much that it damages his general election chances. On the Democratic side, things are… weird. The establishment has rallied around former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, who seems to be the strongest candidate in the race but it hasn’t been easy. Businessman Shri Thanedar, who I mocked back in January, has seen a surge in the polls, but it’s mostly because he’s the only one on TV, as he’s been pouring money into his campaign. I still consider Whitmer the strong favorite to win the nomination, given the institutional support and all the skeletons that are coming out of Thanedar’s closet, exposing him as a political opportunist, but also an objectively terrible human being. Doctor and activist Abdul El-Sayed is popular on college campuses but he’s struggled to gain traction statewide and despite his charisma, he’s likely (sadly) a much weaker general election candidate due to the religion thing. He also has residency issues, which is never good. In general election polling, we don’t have a lot, but the most recent poll suggests whoever the Democratic nominee is will have an edge, and I agree. Of all the GOP-held tossups, I think Michigan is the most likely to flip. Donald Trump is very unpopular here, so is the incumbent GOP-governor, and Bill Schuette, despite being a known-commodity, doesn’t give off the best impression (he comes off pretty slimy). Also, Michigan has a history of flipping. In fact, the last time Michigan elected a new Governor that was the same party as the old one was 1960, when John Swainson was elected to succeed G. Mennen Williams. This tiredness factor adds to the signs pointing to the Dems’ direction, but there’s still a long way to go.
Nevada (Open):
Democrats have an opportunity to complete the trifecta out in Nevada, where outgoing Republican Governor Brian Sandoval is very popular but the state itself slightly leans Democratic and has elected Democratic majorities in both state legislative chambers. The field for Governor in 2018 is not terribly crowded, with Republicans having Attorney General Adam Laxalt as the clear favorite for the nomination. The Democrats have a two way race between a pair of Clark County Commissioners, Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani (that’s fun to spell). There’s a bit of disagreement among pundits about which Democrat is stronger, but both should have a great opportunity to capture the Governorship in this state. General election polling previously had Laxalt with small leads, but the most recent independent public poll from The Nevada Independent gave Sisolak a small lead over Laxalt (43/37), but Laxalt a small lead over Giunchigliani (40/38). But with tons of undecideds, there’s lots of uncertainty, though I would probably make the Democrats small favorites here given the fundamentals of the race.
Ohio (Open):
Since last time, we finally have the candidates for the two parties, though there was really no intrigue in last week’s primaries. Former Attorney General and CFPB Director Richard Cordray steamrolled Dennis Kucinich to get the Democratic nomination, while Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine won handily to get the Republican nomination. Most prognosticators have this rated as a Lean R race but I’m not so sure. While I trust Ohioan and Crystal Ball writer Kyle Kondik as the aficionado of all things Ohio politics, I see this race as somewhere more in the void between Lean R and tossup. DeWine, with lots of cash and decades of name recognition, starts as the tiny favorite in this race. The State of Ohio is on the verge of losing its bellwether status after it swung heavily to Trump in 2016 and remains a bit more pro-Trump than other Midwestern states that swung that direction (Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, for example), which gives DeWine some boost. Yet, Trump is still not popular here and the state level dynamics are interesting. While the incumbent governor, John Kasich, is very popular and a Republican, which would suggest an edge for the Republicans, he is actually pretty unpopular within his own party due to his opposition to Trump, with his good numbers being bolstered by independent/moderate support. DeWine seems to be running to court the Trump fans, while Cordray has made interesting appeals to pro-Kasich/anti-Trump voters, people who normally don’t vote Democratic. These are educated, wealthier people residing in the Columbus area, though Cordray will still have to do much better than Clinton did in the ancestrally Democratic northeast Ohio area to win. This is also a rematch of 2010’s Attorney General race, when DeWine rode the Red Wave and narrowly edged Cordray. With a better environment’s wind at his back, Cordray is hoping he can reverse the tide this year and I think he’s got a real shot. Early polling showed DeWine with an edge, though not over 50%, but that may be changing. A pair of PublicPolicyPolling polls showed Cordray leading, and while PPP is a Dem leaning firm, it is still pretty high quality and supports my thought that this will be a tight race. DeWine is still a small favorite but I’m okay leaving it as a tossup.
Lean R:
Arizona: Doug Ducey
No race is being slept on by national politics experts more than Arizona’s gubernatorial election. The Grand Canyon State is ancestrally Republican, but it was more of a swing state than Ohio in the 2016 election, and it has a Senate race that Democrats are in good position to flip this fall. Additionally, the Arizona’s 8th Congressional District Special Election in April should’ve been a good indication that Republicans can’t just bank on historical partisanship to win here this fall. Yet, no one has this race more than a Likely R rating, which is just insane. Yes there’s an incumbent governor in Doug Ducey, but his approval numbers are very lackluster. Army veteran and Arizona State Professor David Garcia is the favorite for the Dem nomination, and the two polls we have of him and Ducey show him leading. Now both were polls for his campaign, so that probably means Ducey actually has a slight lead at this time, but nowhere near 50% of the vote and far more competitive than the ridiculous Likely R rating would suggest. This could very much be a really close race and yet no one else is picking up on it. Pay attention to this race. It’s not a tossup yet, but it could very easily become one.
Georgia (Open):
Democrats see Georgia as a longterm opportunity, with the growing Atlanta region pushing the state leftward. Hillary Clinton lost it by just 5 points in 2016 and with an open Governorship in 2018, it gives Georgia Democrats an opportunity to flip the state for the first time before the attempt to do so in 2020 with the presidency and a key Senate race. Both sides have contested primaries, with both having some oddities going on. On the Republican side, things have gone absolutely off the rails, with State Senator Michael Williams driving around “a deportation bus”, and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (the current favorite) and Secretary of State Brian Kemp have made similar attacks about the sanctuary city of Decatur, Georgia, which has become a major talking point on the campaign trail. The primary is this Tuesday, though it is likely to go to a runoff as no candidate will get over 50% and this is a southern state. Cagle remains the most formidable Republican, but he is by no means bulletproof. On the Democratic side, there’s a battle between the two Staceys, Stacey Abrams and Stacey Evans. Both are former State Reps., though Abrams is black, while Evans is white. The black community is a large part of the Democratic base in Georgia (and nationally), and it is a big reason why Abrams has a clear lead in the primary polls. It’s unclear which of the two is the stronger general election candidate, though polling slightly suggests it’s Abrams. In a recent poll of Cagle and Abrams, it had Cagle leading 46-41, with 14% undecided, showing that Republicans have a slight edge here but this could easily become a tossup race and that Democrats have room to grow. Interestingly enough, Abrams leads the other Republicans in head-to-head general election polls, but with Cagle the likely favorite, we’ll leave it in Lean R for now.
Iowa (Kim Reynolds):
With longtime and popular Governor Terry Brandstad leaving Iowa to take an ambassadorship, Democrats have a legit shot to win the mansion in Des Moines and send a message that their brand isn’t fading in the Hawkeye State after very rough 2014 and 2016 performances. Kim Reynolds is the “incumbent” governor, but she has never actually won a statewide race before, being tacked on as Lt. Gov. next to the legendary Brandstad. This makes her far weaker than the usual incumbent Governor, and indeed her poll numbers reflect that, earning a meh 42/35 rating from Morning Consult, and she had 47% support from Ann Selzer’s poll, which should be taken as the gospel in Iowa. All in all, it means there’s a real chance for Democrats to knock her off, it just is unclear who it will be. The favorite at this time is probably wealthy businessman Fred Hubbell, who has a notable name in the Des Moines area and is a longtime Democratic donor. State Senator Nate Boulton is probably the second candidate in the running, with union leader Cathy Glasson in third. Selzer tested H2H general election matchups, and found Reynolds failing to top 42% against either Hubbell or Boulton, with both of those trailing by only a couple of points with lots of undecideds. I think this race probably ends the cycle in the tossup column and it’s one that’s definitely going to be a legit contest.
Kansas (Jeff Colyer):
Kansas is a very red state, but it’s also one where Republican governance has gone awry, with Sam Brownback’s aggressive Tea Party tax cuts resulting in a fiscal nightmare, low economic growth, and plummeting approval ratings. Brownback ran away from Kansas to take a phony Ambassadorship with the Trump administration, leaving Colyer in charge as a pseudo-incumbent entering this fall’s elections. Colyer is seeking the Republican nomination, as is Secretary of State Kris Kobach, yes that Kris Kobach. Those two make up the frontrunners for the nomination, with several other names in the race. The anti-Republican side, which has a real opening given the GOP’s unpopularity here, is very messy. Democratic recruiting was sluggish and Jim Ward, State House Minority Leader, has dropped out, leaving a wide open field. Former State Rep. Josh Svaty and State Senator Laura Kelly are now the frontrunners for the nomination, but that isn’t really a good thing for Democrats. Complicating the issue is the independent candidacy of Greg Orman, who lost a Senate race in 2014 as an independent. That year, Democrats decided to merge their candidacy with Orman, and there’s not an insignificant chance that that happens again this year given the state of the Democratic field. If it’s a three way R vs D vs I race, Orman likely plays spoiler on Democrats, so this is a messy and unclear situation that we just have to wait and see on, but Democrats don’t want to waste a rare golden opportunity in such a red state.
Maryland (Larry Hogan):
Hogan is in a very strange spot given that he is a Republican Governor in a deep blue state. He has terrific approval ratings and has done everything he can to disavow President Trump who is supremely unpopular in Maryland, yet the R next to his name still makes him vulnerable. The Democrats have a lot of names in the race, though they lost one when Kevin Kamenetz (Baltimore County Executive) died a week ago. Kamenetz was polling second in the primary, which means the field is now whittled down to Prince George County Executive Rushern Baker and former NAACP President Ben Jealous, with Baker leading the polls. In polls matching Hogan up against Baker/Jealous/Generic Dem, Hogan is generally leading, often by double digits, but he is also rarely across the 50% threshold, suggesting that there is still considerable uncertainty in this race and why Lean R is a good place to put it until we get more polling and clarity on the Democratic side.
New Hampshire (Chris Sununu):
One of the bigger, yet not-talked-about surprises from Election Day 2016 was Chris Sununu beating Colin Van Ostern to succeed Maggie Hasan as New Hampshire’s Governor. Sununu, the brother of former US Senator John Sununu, has since become the Governor of the very swingy New England state and has seen his popularity skyrocket. This has scared off a lot of Democratic contenders, but the current favorite appears to be former State Senator Molly Kelly, though former Mayor of Portsmouth Steve Marchand is close behind. Sununu has run into many of the same problems that Larry Hogan has, with high approval ratings, yet struggling to get over 50% in polls against the Democratic contenders. Additionally, because he is only in his second year in office since New Hampshire elects their Governor every 2 years, Sununu doesn’t have as big of a name brand, and is similar to a Generic Republican as opposed to an entrenched incumbent, weakening him. Sununu is still the favorite at the moment, but not nearly enough of one to put this race in Likely R.
Oklahoma (Open):
Another race that many national pundits are sleeping on is Oklahoma, where, like Kansas, Republican governance has wrecked the state budget and has tanked the outgoing incumbent’s approval ratings. The exiting GOP Governor Mary Fallin leaves office with a 25% approval rating and a 63% disapproval rating, which is pretty ugly. Additionally, some of the largest special election swings have come in Oklahoma, showing the anger many have with the Republican government even in a blood red state. Furthermore, the teacher’s strikes in the state have complicated the matter. All of this gives an opening to Democrats, who held the Governorship as recently as 2011, when Brad Henry was a popular Governor. The Democratic frontrunner is former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who has the prior office stature needed to be a serious contender. The GOP field is a three way race between businessman Kevin Stitt, Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, and former OKC Mayor Mick Cornett. We have no polling here, but many national pundits are ignoring the energy in the Democratic base and the general disgust that Oklahomans have for the way their current government is going. Any Republican nominee is going to have to find a way to distance themselves from Fallin and it will make this race very interesting moving forward.
Wisconsin (Scott Walker):
Good ole Scott Walker, a candidate who’s tough to beat but his divisiveness guarantees a close race. He’s been able to win three times statewide, but the fourth attempt will be by far the hardest, given the environment. A favorite to take on Walker has emerged, and it appears to be Wisconsin Public School Superintendent Tony Evers. Having won statewide before, Evers is a legitimate opponent, though winning a far down-ballot race like public school superintendent is much different than winning a Governor’s race. Here’s what we know: because it is Walker, it will be tight. But also because it is Walker, this is no pushover, and he’s much tougher to oust than a Governor with a 43/50 approval rating would normally suggest. We have no general election polling, but those priors give us a good idea that this race will probably end in the tossup column, but at this time, it’s hard to put it there with the lack of polling.
Likely R:
Tennessee (Open):
In 2018, the US Senate race in Tennessee will likely get all the attention, but there is a gubernatorial race with some mild intrigue. Incumbent Governor Bill Haslam is term limited, meaning that this is an open seat and while it is in a very red state, it has the potential to get interesting. The Republican frontrunners are US Rep. Diane Black and Randy Boyd, former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, with Black being a favorite to get the nomination over Boyd. The likely Democratic nominee is former Mayor of Nashville Karl Dean. That prior office in the state’s most populous city that contains about 10% of the state population gives him a good base to work with, but Dean will be an underdog. We only have a few polls here but they showed Black and Boyd both leading Dean by mid-high single digits, but with lots of undecideds, meaning it’s not quite safe, but also not a close race yet.
Vermont (Phil Scott):
Phil Scott is another of the ultra-popular East Coast Republicans, and he won this Governorship in 2016 by 9 points. Since becoming Governor, he’s governed as an old fashioned liberal Republican, which means he resembles nothing of the national Republican Party and has approval ratings near 60% in most polls even in this very left wing state. Scott will be a tough out in 2018 because of that, but a formidable Democratic challenger could pose him problems like they do Hogan, since Scott has the wrong party label next to his name even if his ideology is vastly different. For now he’s in great position to win re-election, but Vermont is the type of state where it’s very tough to put a race like this in the Safe R column even if it feels that way.
Safe R:
Alabama (Kay Ivey):
Kav Ivey ascended to this governorship after the scandal ridden Robert Bentley was forced to resign last year. She’s since become pretty popular, though she is a Republican in a blood red state which helps on principle. While Democrats have some decent candidates, including Mayor of Tuscaloosa Walt Maddox and former State Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb, it’s tough to imagine Alabama Democrats pulling off another miracle like they did with Doug Jones in December. Ivey’s good numbers and the state’s partisan lean makes the GOP strong favorites to hold this seat.
Arkansas (Asa Hutchinson):
This is probably the safest Republican governorship in the country. Asa Hutchinson won the seat by a solid margin in dark red Arkansas in 2014 and since has become ultra-popular, with approval ratings in the high 50s/low 60s. This means he is basically coasting to re-election and while he will face nominal opposition from the Democrats, expect him to win by 30 or so points. Moving on.
Idaho (Open):
Idaho is one of the reddest states of all, and thus, even though there is an open governorship, the state fundamentals make Republicans very heavy favorites. The primary this past week was won by Lt. Gov. Brad Little for the Republicans and State Rep. Paulette Jordan for the Democrats. Jordan had a bit of an upset win over favorite AJ Balukoff, as she rode the back of the more liberal base to get the nomination. A victory in November would make her the first Native American Governor, but that’s a victory that’s a tad hard to imagine right now. Sure, it could become close, but Idaho is so dang red that it’s hard to see it coming until we get polling.
Massachusetts (Charlie Baker):
I started the cycle with both Massachusetts and Maryland as Likely Republican with similar descriptions as “races that could get close because of state lean even with super popular Governors” but since then, they’ve diverged. While Maryland moved a column leftward to Lean R (above), Massachusetts has slid off the board, because polling has consistently shown that Baker isn’t going to be beat. Like Phil Scott in Vermont, Baker hardly resembles a national Republican given that he is pro-choice and pro-clean energy, and has committed Massachusetts to the Paris Climate Accords. This has allowed him to accumulate a staggering 71% approval rating (!) despite being a Republican in dark blue/liberal Massachusetts. The polls show him steamrolling his Democratic opponents and since Massachusetts has veto-proof Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers, there isn’t really an emphasis for Democrats to try and press hard for this seat when there are so many better pick opportunities. This means I have moved the seat from Likely R → Safe R.
Nebraska (Pete Ricketts):
Nebraska rivals Arkansas for the title of safest Republican governorship, as this is a super red state and incumbent Governor Pete Ricketts is pretty popular. Ricketts won by about 18 points in 2014 and I expect him to match or exceed that margin this time around. State Senator Bob Krist is the Democratic nominee, but he has a herculean challenge in trying to flip this seat. For now, it’s Safe R.
South Carolina (Henry McMaster):
Like Kim Reynolds in Iowa, Henry McMaster is a sorta incumbent, taking over after Nikki Haley left to work in the Trump administration. He’s never been tested on the Governor ticket before, so he doesn’t have nearly the same incumbent strength as others on this list. But his approval ratings are still quite good, and thus he is considered a heavy favorite to remain the Governor after the November elections. Democrats have businessman Phil Noble and State Rep. James Smith as the favorites, and because SC is only an R+8 state, it has the potential to get interesting, but at this time this race isn’t really in play.
South Dakota (Open):
If you’re looking for a dark horse governor’s race, here’s possibility 1. South Dakota hasn’t elected a Democratic Governor since 1974, so the state level dynamics could point to a Democratic Governor simply out of fatigue of Republicans, even in this dark red state. Another reason is that Democrats have a seemingly quite credible challenger, in the form of State Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton, a paraplegic cowboy who was injured in a rodeo accident. He’s young and intriguing and has the potential to make things interesting. On the Republican side, Attorney General Marty Jackley and US Rep. Kristi Noem are the favorites and whoever emerges from the primary victorious will be the heavy general election favorite given the state’s partisan lean, but it’s one that intrigues me. No polling here to have any clue if my hunch is right, but I could see it randomly becoming competitive.
Texas (Greg Abbott):
While much has been made about the US Senate race in Texas in 2018, there is a lot less intrigue in the simultaneous governor’s race. Greg Abbott is a popular incumbent in a state that still leans very much to the right, even if it moved to within a single digit margin in 2016. Additionally, Democrats do not have a Beto O’Rourke in this race, with Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advancing to next week’s primary runoff, and neither have the charisma or the fundraising prowess to really be a big challenge for Abbott. Dems will probably have to wait another 4 years to make a serious run at the Governor’s Mansion in Austin.
Wyoming (Open):
The second potential dark horse race is in the state of Wyoming. With Matt Mead term limited, there’s an open race and because state level dynamics work differently than congressional ones, Democrats could in theory win here, even if Wyoming is the reddest state of all. The reason is two things: 1) credible Democratic nominee and 2) problematic potential Republican nominee. The Democrats have just one candidate, State House Minority Leader, who has the obvious institutional backing needed and also is the leading fundraiser in the race. That’s a big upgrade in a state where it’s not uncommon for Some Dudes to run statewide races for the Democratic Party. The other factor is if the Republicans nominate a problematic candidate. Wealthy (and old) carpetbagger Foster Friess in particular could be a major issue for the GOP, for example. We have no polling to have any idea what’s going on and we probably won’t get a whole lot even in the fall, but it’s one I’m watching.
Conclusion and national examination:
This map is largely the inverse of the US Senate map. While Democrats are defending a ton of Senate seats in 2018, they are almost exclusively on offense in the 2018 governor’s races. Entering these elections, Republicans hold a 33-17 edge (I include Bill Walker in the Dem total because he merged his campaign with Dems in 2014). However, the way I like thinking about Governorships is the percent of US 50 state population living under a Democratic Governor vs. a Republican Governor, an idea I first found from @Xenocrypt on Twitter. Put simply, a California Governor represents 40 M people, while a Wyoming Governor represents 700,000 people. One office has a much greater impact on people than the other and they shouldn’t be treated equally. Using this method of looking at things, Republicans control Governorships that rule over 57.9% of the 50 state population, while Dems have 42.1%. While it will be a steep task for Democrats to net the 8 they need to even it at 25-25, simply hanging onto their Governorships and flipping Florida and Illinois would give Democrats a majority of Americans under their control. So let’s break it down using both methods of analysis:
D seats not up: 7 / 12.88%
Safe D: 3 / 18.71%
Likely D: 2 / 5.22%
Lean D: 6 / 8.76%
Tossup: 6 / 15.36%
Lean R: 8 / 12.50%
Likely R: 2 / 2.26%
Safe R: 9 / 16.32%
R seats not up: 7 / 7.97%
Using our current ratings and putting lean and likely in the respective columns means Democrats are favored to control 45.59% of the US 50 state population and 18 seats, while Republicans are favored to control 39.05% of the US 50 state population and 26 seats, with 6 seats comprising 15.36% of the population in the tossup column. All of that means that while holding 25 Governorships after the November elections is a bit of a stretch, Democrats have a great opportunity to end the night with a majority of the 50 state population under a Democratic Governor.
As it stands right now, Democrats are clearly favored to pick up 3 seats (Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico), while they are in good positions in Nevada and especially Michigan, with Florida probably being a clear tossup. If Democrats end Election Day with anything less than a 5 seat gain in Governorships, it will probably be a disappointment. Where this map really gets interesting is if Democrats start picking off the Governorships currently located in the Lean R column. If they flip say Oklahoma and Wisconsin, that is the beginning of wave territory. There is a significant chance that if the “blue wave” scenario of the midterms occurs, Democrats could net 8-10 Governorships. There is also an equal chance that they only gain 3. The safest bet is probably a net gain of 4-5, with higher gains possible. There’s a lot of potential variance but it will be a fun battle to track into the fall.