I’m back with part 2 of my series where I rate state legislative chambers and the individual races. On Monday I released my ratings of the Michigan Senate, which you can read here. Today, I’m onto the Michigan House of Representatives. I have writeups for the competitive races below, along with their ratings, and an overall chamber rating. As with last time, the ratings are based specifically on candidate information, fundraising, past state level election results, and federal Partisan Voting Index calculations using data from here. Let’s dive right in with the ratings table:
Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
109 (D) |
23 (D) |
17 (R) |
24 (R) |
38 (R) |
|
25 (D) |
19 (R) |
79 (R) |
56 (R) |
|
40 (R) |
20 (R) |
108 (R) |
85 (R) |
|
48 (D) |
30 (R) |
|
98 (R) |
|
62 (R) |
39 (R) |
|
104 (R) |
|
67 (D) |
41 (R) |
|
|
|
|
51 (R) |
|
|
|
|
61 (R) |
|
|
|
|
71 (R) |
|
|
|
|
91 (R) |
|
|
|
|
99 (R) |
|
|
|
|
110 (D) |
|
|
* parentheses = party that currently holds the seat
Likely D: 109
109th district: Sara Cambensby
The 109th is our only Likely D seat and it is a light red one up in the UP. Centered on Marquette, it is the bluest UP house district with an R+1 PVI. Sara Cambensby won the 109th in a special election last fall, 56.7% to 42% and she’s a strong favorite to hang onto it in 2018 given that kind of impressive margin. She will be facing Melody Wagner who seems to be a mostly random person. I’ll leave it at Likely D because it is a Trump seat (he won it by 4), but it’s not really competitive now.
Lean D: 23, 24, 40, 48, 62, 67
23rd district: Darrin Camilleri
This house district is located in southern Wayne County on the border of Monroe County, including Trenton and Grosse Ille, and it really shifted towards Republicans. Despite being an Obama/Peters seat, it went to Trump by 12 in 2016. That was almost enough to sink incumbent Democrat Darrin Camilleri, who won by less than a point that same night. Camilleri is back to try and hang on again in 2018, facing Michael Frazier, who lost the primary to Bob Howes (in a landslide), who ended up losing that tight race to Camilleri. Given that he didn’t win the primary in 2016, Frazier’s probably a much weaker candidate, and with 2018 looking like a much better environment, we make Camilleri a favorite and put this seat in Lean D.
25th district: Open (Yanez)
Democrat Henry Yanez is leaving this Sterling Heights area seat open to run for State Senate, which means that Dems have to defend a tough R+3 seat. Sterling Heights shifted towards the GOP in 2016, with Trump winning HD-25 by 10 points. Yanez still won by a comfortable margin, so there is Dem strength downballot. The other good news for Dems that leaves the seat in Lean D is they have a much better recruit. Nate Shannon, the Dem in the field, is a member of the Sterling Heights City Council, while Jazmine Early, the GOPer in the field, is a right wing dingbat affiliated with anti-Muslim hate groups and who also ran for Sterling Heights City Council but lost badly. Democrats have to feel good about where this race is currently.
40th district: Open (McCready)
The first of the two GOP seats I have rated as Lean Democratic is the 40th, located in Oakland County, specifically Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. One of the wealthiest and most educated areas in the entire country, this is an area packed with Romney/Clinton voters. HD-40 supported both Clinton and Peters, with an EVEN PVI, and it’s an open seat in 2018, which is why it lands here. Democrats have a former Dingell staffer, Mari Manoogian, and she’s running a very good campaign, with over $40,000 in the bank entering the year. The GOP has a messy primary with a lot of solid options, but the fundamentals of the district point towards a Democratic pickup, which is why it’s Lean D.
48th district: Open (Faris)
All of Gennessee County that isn’t Flint saw a big shift to Trump in 2016, who won the 48th, consisting mostly of Davison, MI, and northern Gennessee, by 9. The PVI of the district remains D+1 and for that reason, I rate this seat Lean Democratic, despite the fact that Incumbent Faris is term limited, leaving the seat open. The Republican favorite seems to be Sherri Cross, a delegate for the Gennessee County Republican Party, while the Democratic field is split between Thetford Township Trustee Eric Gunnels, Democratic Party activist Jordan Tiffany, and public school administrator Sheryl Kennedy. It’s tough to get a read on which candidates are strong and which aren’t but the district fundamentals and national environment make me slot it at Lean D.
62nd district: Open (Bizon)
The 62nd is the most likely Democratic pickup in the Michigan State House. A D+1 seat in Calhoun County including Battle Creek, this went to Obama/Peters before Clinton lost it by just 2. That poor showing weighed down 2016 Dem. nominee for this seat, Jim Haadsma, who lost by 0.57%. Haadsma is back in 2018 and the incumbent he lost to is leaving the seat open. And that combination of Dem leaning open seat, favorable national environment, and strong Democratic candidate means this is a Lean D seat and a very good pickup opportunity.
67th Open (Cochran)
This D+2 district consists of the majority of the land mass of Ingham County, including the County seat of Mason. The incumbent, Tom Cochran (the father of one of my HS teachers), is term-limited, meaning it’s a Dem defense seat. But it’s also an Obama/Clinton/Peters seat, which is why I rate it Lean D. It’s a very crowded field on both sides but the district fundamentals puts the 67th here until the primary passes and then we can get a good read on candidate quality.
Tossup: 17, 19, 20, 30, 39, 41, 51, 61, 71, 91, 99, 110
17th district: Joseph Bellino
No part of Michigan shifted more heavily against Democrats in 2016 than Monroe, and HD-17 is a classic example. Both Obama and Gary Peters won here, yet Clinton lost this seat by 18 points. That fact was enough to oust Democratic incumbent Bill Lavoy by a narrow margin. Lavoy is not trying to launch a comeback, as he is instead running for a similar area seat in the State Senate. Instead it’s his wife Michelle Degraer Lavoy in the hunt for payback on the Republican incumbent Bellino. This race will be a classic test of whether 2016 trends are actually trends or just blips on the radar, as Monroe does still have Democratic infrastructure and ancestry. It’s only an R+4 seat and given that 2016’s race here was close, I expect this one to be tight too, which is why it lands in tossup.
19th district: Open (Cox)
This is an R+5 district in traditionally Republican Livonia. While the incumbent received over 60% of the vote in 2016, Cox is running for State Senate, which gives Democrats a chance here, even though Donald Trump won the seat by 8 points. The Democratic favorite is Dan Centers, a Livonia School Board member, and he seems strong enough to make this seat very interesting, while the Republican in the race is Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin. With both sides having legit candidates, watch for this race to be tight in November.
20th district: Jeff Noble
HD-20 is also in Wayne County, centered on Plymouth and it’s very swingy, with an R+2 PVI. While Hillary Clinton won this seat in 2016, incumbent Jeff Noble was able to hang on by 7 points, so in that way, he resembles Barbara Comstock in Virginia (capable of overcoming Trump with Clinton on the ballot, but without her?). Dems know this is a top pickup opportunity and have coalesced around teacher Dan Kolezar, who seems solid, though we don’t have fundraising data at this time. Regardless, the partisan lean and national dynamics of the district lands it here.
30th district: Diana Farrington
This Macomb County seat centered on Utica has an R+7 PVI and was a place that Clinton got demolished in (lost by 18). Yet the incumbent Farrington only won by 7.5, showing there is an opportunity here for Democrats, who have entrepreneur and activist Wisam Naoum in the race and he seems like a good get. This might be the least competitive of the tossups, but Democrats have a shot here.
39th district: Open (Kesto)
An Oakland County district that Clinton narrowly lost is the recipe for being competitive in 2018 and the 39th fits that description. The incumbent Kesto won by just 8 points in 2016 and with it being an open seat, Democrats have a great pickup opportunity. Located in Commerce Township, Team Blue has lawyer Jennifer Suidan as the leading candidate, while the Republicans have a crowded primary. It’s tough to get a read on the candidates but the nature of the seat as an open R+3 in educated suburbia makes it basically an automatic tossup.
41st district: Open (Howrylak)
Another open Oakland County district, HD-41 is one that Clinton did win, with an R+2 PVI, since Romney also won it in 2012 (by 4). Centered on Troy, MI (>), the 41st is another key battleground, and a great Democratic pickup opportunity. The Democratic leader is IT analyst and Troy Planning Commission Member Padma Kuppa, who raised $15,000 in the last month and a half of the year after getting in the race. She looks like she’s formidable, and has some solid opposition in Doug Tietz, Oakland County Commissioner (?) and Ethan Baker (Troy City Council member). While they are tough opponents, the district fundamentals point towards a Democratic flip, though not decisively enough to put it in Lean D.
51st district: Open (Graves)
HD-51 is located in the non-clint portions of Gennessee County, specifically Linden and Fenton, and as already stated, those types of areas went hard for Trump. He won this district by 23 points, and Romney won it by 7, giving it a hefty R+10 PVI. However, Peters did win here, and the big factor is that Dems have a great recruit, former Linden Mayor David Lossing. Being a Mayor of one of the two cities in the district is a big asset, and with a background in politics, he is an excellent candidate. The Republicans have a crowded yet unimpressive field, and in this way, HD-51 sorta resembles KS-02 at the congressional level. And like KS-02, HD-51 is a clear Democratic flip opportunity.
61st district: Brandt Iden
Another great pickup opportunity, the 61st district is located in Kalamazoo County, centered on Portage. It has an EVEN PVI and is an Obama/Clinton/Peters seat, putting the incumbent Iden in a lot of trouble. Iden was able to survive 2016 by 5 points, despite Clinton’s victory here, but he’s gonna need some magic to pull it off a second time. In 2018, he’s staring down a challenge from businesswoman Alberta Griffin, a very credible challenger and at this point in time, Griffin is probably a slight favorite given the district fundamentals. But for now, we’ll rate it as a tossup.
71st district: Open (Barrett)
The 71st district is located in Eaton County, and is one of the swingiest in the state, with an R+1 PVI. While Obama and Peters won here, Clinton came up a tad short, losing by just 2. The incumbent Barrett ran a bit ahead of Trump, winning by 12, but lucky for Democrats, he is term limited, so it is an open seat. The Democratic frontrunner is probably Waverly school board member Angela Witwer, though eLearning specialist Beth Bowen is definitely a factor in the primary. Republicans have a crowded primary with some solid names so we have to wait for the primary to get a good read on the race. But like with many other seats on the list, the district fundamentals puts it in tossup.
91st district: Open (Hughes)
Muskegon is one of the most Democratic Counties in Michigan, though much of that Dem lean is in the city of Muskegon itself. The 91st consists of Muskegon County outside of the city and while it has Dem ancestry (Obama/Peters won here), Trump won it by 15. Despite that, the race for HD-91 at the state legislative level was decided by just 5.5, with the incumbent Hughes running well behind Trump, showing the down ballot Democratic strength here that isn’t represented in the R+4 PVI. Whitehall City Councilmember Tanya Cabala is the Democratic candidate and she seems strong, with about $15,000 raised in two months to close out the year, while the Republicans have Greg VanWoerkom, a Bill Huizenga staffer. Expect it to be a tight and competitive race in November.
99th district: Roger Hauck
One of the biggest recruiting gets for Democrats was recruiting Mt. Pleasant Mayor Allison Quast-Lents to run for HD-99. The 99th district includes that very city that houses Central Michigan University and since it contains over a quarter of the people in this district, having someone that represents a good chunk of the constituents already is big. The PVI of the 99th is R+4 so it is very much flippable, with President Obama winning here in 2012 and the incumbent Hauck only winning by 10 in 2016. This is one of the better Democratic opportunities for picking up a seat.
110th district: Open (Dianda)
This is the only seriously endangered Democratic seat, located in the far western portion of the UP. Scott Dianda is term limited and running for State Senate, so Dems will be tasked with defending an R+8 seat that Trump won by 19 points, a trick task. That said, Obama only lost here by 4 and Democrats are much stronger down ballot than at the presidential level in the UP, so there’s hope. Nonprofit dude Ken Summers is the Democratic favorite and he’s running a good campaign with a solid amount of cash in the bank, while the GOP has a crowded field where no one is raising much money as of last reporting period. We just have to wait and see to get a good read on the race.
Lean R: 24th, 79th, 108th
24th district: Steve Marino
This is a Macomb County district located in Harrison Township and Clinton Township, and like the county as a whole, it shifted to Republicans in 2016. While Obama won here by 3, Trump won here by 15, though the incumbent Marino ran behind the President, winning by just 10. That closeish race makes me think this has a chance to be tight, and businesswoman/Dem favorite Laura Winn seems to be solid, so Lean R feels appropriate for this R+6 seat.
79th district: Open
HD-79 is located in Berrien County in the southwestern portion of the state, and it’s an open seat with an R+4 PVI, making it very flippable. Most of these types of seats would land in tossup, but none of Peters/Obama/Clinton won here, so I’m keeping it in Lean R. Rather all lost pretty narrowly, though it shifted towards Clinton relative to the state’s lean as a whole. Small businessman Joey Andrews is the Democratic favorite and he seems good enough, likely going to face GOP candidate Troy Rollings, the vice chair of the Michigan GOP. All in all, it should be a tight race into the fall.
108th district: Beau LaFave
An R+12 seat with an incumbent is not exactly the usual path to a close race, but again, the UP is funky down ballot, and even though Donald Trump won by 30 points in HD-108, LaFave won by just 5 points. The Democratic favorite this time around is local UAW leader Bob Romps, who will have the union support that can be important in the UP, especially institutionally in getting out the vote, and he should be another tough Dem test for LaFave. The partisan lean of the district makes me put it in Lean R but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a R -> D flip.
Likely R: 38, 56, 98, 104
38th district: Kathy Crawford
Another Oakland County seat, HD-38 has a R+4 PVI while being located on the border in the Northville/Novi area. Like most places in the county, it had a shift to Clinton, but was still won by Trump (by 4). However, incumbent Kathy Crawford is stronger than Trump here, winning by 15 in 2016, running far ahead of his pace. This means Dems will need a strong challenge and at this time it isn’t clear that they have that. Businessman Joseph Petrillo wasn’t raising enough money to win which beckoned dentist Aditi Bagchi into the race and we have to see how his campaign goes but for now, this is a Likely R race.
56th district: Jason Sheppard
HD-56 is another one of the Monroe County districts that really moved away from Democrats in 2016, with narrow Obama/Peters losses being replaced with a titanic 24 point Clinton loss. It helped carry Jason Sheppard to an easy 20 point win, but there seems to be tougher competition this time around, in the form of Monroe County Democratic Treasurer Ernie Whiteside. Whiteside is someone who’s been in politics, so he should be a strong enough challenge. However, the incumbency and partisan dynamics make me put this race in Likely R.
98th district: Open (Glenn)
Bay County is one of the places in Michigan that is bluer down-ballot than it is at the top of the ticket, which makes HD-98 a closer race than the R+10 PVI might insinuate. That, plus an open seat and a credible Democratic challenger in the form of non-profit executive Sarah Schultz puts it sorta in play. There are two Republicans in the race and they will be the clear favorites but it’s one just to keep watch of.
104th district: Larry Inman
The 104th is located in Grand Traverse County and with an R+8 PVI, it’s a stretch Democratic opportunity. Clinton lost here by 13 points, while Obama lost here by 11. The incumbent Inman won his 2016 race by 8, running a good bit behind Trump and making him vulnerable enough to rate the race as competitive. Attorney Dan O’Neil, also a former member of the Traverse City Planning Committee, is the Democratic challenger and he seems credible enough. This isn’t a great pickup opportunity but it’s one on the horizon.
The Democratic Path to a Majority
Entering these elections, Republicans hold a 63-47 majority in the State House, so Democrats have to get a net gain of 9 for a majority, or 8 for a weird power-sharing agreement we were denied in Virginia. But for this sake, we’ll go with 9 for the majority path. At this point in time, Democrats are clear favorites in HD-40 and HD-62 (which I have in Lean D), and I would think favorites in HD-41, HD-61, HD-71, and HD-110 (hold). That leaves you at 5, so the question becomes, where does the other 3 come from? HD-20, HD-39, and HD-99 are most obvious, with the first two being anti-Trump suburbia seats and the latter being the Mt. Pleasant seat where Democrats have the Mayor in the race. There are plenty of other options, but that would be the most obvious path.
The Bottom Line
All things considered, I would say that Republicans are favorites to keep their majority but there is a lot less breathing room than there is in the State Senate, and not enough of it to rate the chamber as Lean R, so I’ll rate it as tossup.
Chamber rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: D+5-D+13