Basically right now in a statehouse not so far away …
STATE WARS
It is a dark time for the Republicans. Although the Democratic nominee for president had been defeated, Democratic candidates are driving GOPers from supposedly safe districts and pursuing Republican incumbents at every level of the ballot.
Evading the dreaded GOP incumbent war chests, a group of Democratic candidates have been raising small-dollar grassroots donations to establish skilled campaigns with robust field operations.
Something something imperial probes.
And so forth and so on ...
Never Tell Me The Odds: From time to time, I post updates about the totally sweet Daily Kos Elections 2018 Legislative Open Seat Tracker.
I usually save this bit for the butt-end of these roundups, but these numbers are dead sexy, so BOOM IN YOUR FACE
Campaign Action
- Currently, this marvelous spreadsheet reflects the status of 3,679 partisan legislative seats that will be on the ballot this fall (2,300 or so yet to go), including:
- The number of seats up this fall (no one cares about you, Minnesota Senate),
- The number of retirements in each party, how many members of each party are term-limited out this fall (looking at you, Michigan and Ohio), and
- How many of each party’s seats are going uncontested this fall.
We’ll keep updating the tracker as more and more filing deadlines and primaries pass (we’re keeping tabs on incumbents who lose primaries, too), but as things stand now … well, based on these metrics alone, things are looking extremely not shabby for statehouse Democrats.
- Retirements: Lots of Republicans are leaving the war effort this year.
- So far, in partisan legislative chambers (sorry, Nebraska, but you’re not my fault), 354 Republicans are retiring (vs. 171 Democrats).
- Term limits: A whopping 141 Republicans are term-limited out (vs. 69 Democrats).
- And if you’re wondering why Republicans are getting hit so hard here — well, a lot of it can be chalked up to the long-term cost of their success in 2010.
- Many states’ term limits are four two-year House terms and/or two four-year Senate terms.
- So, if you’re one of the many Republicans elected in the 2010 wave, buh-bye.
- Watch for this to take a bite out of Republicans next year, too, as GOP class of 2012 that got elected in the super-gerrymandered districts their party drew in 2011 hit that eight-year mark.
- Uncontested seats: Tons of of seats are going uncontested this fall—specifically, 493 Republicans will slide into office unopposed, while 626 Democrats will do the same.
- But in this case, numbers really only tell part of the story. After all, it’s awful hard to win re-election unopposed if you’re not already holding the seat.
- And Republicans hold an awful lot more seats than Democrats right now.
- Of the 3,679 partisan legislative seats for which state filing deadlines have passed, 2,269 of them are held by Republicans, and 1,372 are held by Democrats.
- So, when you look at those numbers in light of the numbers of candidates running unopposed, well, the Democratic advantage here becomes even more pronounced.
- 46 percent of Democratic-held seats are going uncontested by Republicans, while the reverse is true of just 22 percent of GOP-held seats.
- And in raw numbers, the differences is even starker still: So far, Democrats are fielding candidates in 1,794 GOP seats, while Republicans are doing so in just 727 Democratic seats.
- More math! That’s almost 2.5 times as many Democratic legislative candidates versus Republican candidates.
These figures also indicate the strength of Democratic candidate recruitment on the state legislative level this year (and the recruitment struggles Republicans are apparently facing in this political climate).
Paging Princess General Leia: A ridiculously and delightfully huge chunk of Democratic down-ballot recruits this cycle are women.
- Record numbers of women are running in legislative races in states all across the country, and women candidates alone could flip party control of at least seven chambers.
- Not-so-fun fact: Women currently hold just 1,874 out of the nation’s 7,383 state legislative seats (that’s just a hair over 25 percent, which, like sucks).
- But here’s an extremely fun fact: In nine legislative chambers (so far), women make up half (or more!) of the Democrats on the ballot this fall.
- Specifically, those chambers are the
- Georgia House,
- Georgia Senate,
- Illinois House,
- Kentucky Senate,
- Maine House,
- Montana Senate,
- Nevada Assembly,
- Texas Senate, and
- Utah Senate.
I Am Altering The Commission, Pray I Do Not Alter It Further: Back in February, I warned about a nasty scheme Arizona Republicans were hatching to blow up the state’s voter-created Independent Redistricting Commission.
- Good news! They’ve scrapped that original plan for the moment.
- Bad news! They’re still moving to give the legislature control over the process—the very control Arizona voters stripped them of and gave to the IRC in 2000.
- Republicans have been trying to exert power over or eliminate the IRC since it produced maps they didn’t like in 2011 (some experts consider Arizona one of the least-gerrymandered states in the country).
- The original scheme Republicans introduced quite obviously and completely returned redistricting to the control of the legislature. Specifically, it would have
- Expanded the IRC from five members to eight: three Republicans, three Democrats, and two independents.
- All eight members would have been appointed by the legislature.
- The (GOP-controlled) legislature would have approved (or not) the commission’s maps.
- If the (GOP-controlled) legislature didn’t like the maps, they’d have gotten to draw their own and ask for voter approval.
- This plan elicited a right and proper protest from, well, basically anyone who cares about fair redistricting and respecting the wishes of the voters.
- So, Republicans tweaked their proposal.
- The version of the bill that’s passed the (GOP-controlled) House and will likely pass the (also GOP-controlled) state Senate in short order would expand the IRC from five members to nine: ostensibly three Republicans, three Democrats, and three independents unregistered with either party.
- The rub here is that two of the three “independent” commissioners would each be selected by a Republican lawmaker and a Democratic lawmaker.
- So, effectively, the commission would have four Republicans and four Democrats.
- The ninth member of the commission, who would serve as chair, would have to be agreed upon by the other eight. If the eight can’t agree on that last commissioner, s/he would be selected from a set pool of candidates by a drawing of lots.
- Another problematic part of this proposal is a change in the allowed percentage population difference between districts that’s likely to reduce representation of Native American populations and other voters of color.
- Because it involves amending the state constitution, the measure still has to go before voters for approval in November.
Since voters were the ones who shut the legislature out of the process in the interests of fairness 18 years ago, here’s hoping they remember why they created the IRC in the first place.
Aren’t You A Little Corrupt For A Governor? It’ll soon be a full month since the Missouri House committee tasked with investigating “allegations against Gov. Eric R. Greitens” after his indictment on felony charges in February dropped its bombshell report.
- This report, which details the governor’s horrific conduct with a woman he’d had an affair with, was the first of two, and the second one has just gone public.
- The original report contains the truly horrifying account of Greitens restraining, exposing, and photographing this woman without her consent, and then, as she wept “uncontrollably,” Greitens pushing her to the floor and coercing her into giving him oral sex “under duress” before permitting her to leave his home.
This man is the governor of Missouri.
- The new report is also damning, but in quite a different way.
- It contains evidence Greitens lied in campaign filings and violated campaign finance law when he operated a “shadow campaign”—for perhaps almost two years—before filing his candidacy paperwork with election officials in Feb. 2015.
- Prior to that point, Greitens paid staffers to do campaign work from his personal accounts and companies—a big no-no in Missouri, which requires that candidates file papers after you’ve spent just $500 on your race.
- The report also contains evidence that Greitens (likely illegally—he’s already facing a related felony charge) used his non-profit organization’s donor list to fundraise for his gubernatorial campaign.
What this report does NOT include is a recommendation as to whether or not the GOP-controlled House should start impeachment proceedings against Greitens.
- Republicans would rather sit on their hands a bit. Here’s why.
- Greitens’ trial on the felony invasion of privacy charges stemming from that involuntary nude photo session is set to start May 14, so Republican House members would probably prefer to let a conviction remove any potential controversy from the matter of impeachment.
- Ousting a member of your own party, even when obviously warranted, tends to be fraught with political complications that these super brave Republicans would likely rather avoid.
- But Greitens’ blackmail and assault of this woman were clear grounds for at least attempting to remove him from office, and these new revelations regarding campaign law and ethics violations are just icing on that impeachment cake.
These Aren’t The Farm Animals You’re Looking For: Remember those two Democrats in Wisconsin who are running in those special elections Scott Walker was so afraid of that he literally tried to outlaw them?
- Well, one of them has a sweet new TV ad, a 30-second spot that highlights her focus on protecting the environment—specifically, the wells that provide the water essential to running the state’s farms.
- But really you should watch it because Ann Groves Lloyd, the Democrat running in AD-42, splashes Smart Water at some chickens and what looks an awful lot like Perrier at some cows.
This Week in Statehouse Action will be on hiatus next week, but until we’re back, May the Fourth (and 5th-16th) be with you!
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