Get ready for the next big one:
Republicans are worried they might lose one more big special election right before the midterms – and a nasty proxy war between the establishment and hardline wings of their party isn’t making them feel any better.
Former Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH), a top GOP establishment figure, is fighting like hell to help his hand-picked successor, state Sen. Troy Balderson (R), win his Tuesday primary. But Tea Party conservatives led by former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) have gone all-in to add another member to their bloc of hardliners, with most backing Melanie Leneghan in the crowded field.
Republicans both in the state and nationally are bracing for a difficult August special election in the GOP-leaning district, which includes parts of Columbus and its well-educated suburbs, as well as more rural territory. President Trump won the district by 10 percentage points in 2016, a smaller margin than in some other places Democrats have won special elections in the past year. And GOP strategists say a tough fight would get even harder if Leneghan is their nominee.
“It’s going to be competitive, like a lot of suburban Republican seats around the country, regardless of who the nominee is because of the blue wave that’s coming. Add into that a nominee that’s well outside the mainstream of the party and that’s a recipe for disaster,” said John Weaver, a senior adviser to Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R).
In an unusual move, Tiberi has spent almost a half-million dollars from his own campaign account to boost Balderson. He’s been backed by Defending Main Street, a centrist GOP group with Ohio ties, as well as another Republican super PAC that has ties to House GOP leadership.
On the other side is Jordan, who has come in hard for Leneghan, and the fiscally conservative Club for Growth, which is spending heavily on ads attacking Balderson.
Now here’s some info about the Democratic Primary:
The Democratic primary isn’t nearly as dramatic. Democrats think they have a few viable candidates: Danny O’Connor, the Franklin County recorder who has the endorsement of former Gov. Ted Strickland and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) and is raising the most money; Zach Scott, a former Franklin County sheriff with strong name recognition; and John Russell, a local farmer with ties to area progressive grassroots groups.
O’Connor would appear to be the favorite, by virtue of his endorsements and fundraising. But the Democratic odds might be founded less on which candidate emerges from the May 8 primary and more on whether a district that has been sending Republicans to Congress for almost all of the past century can bring itself to vote for the other party.
The climb is significant for Democrats: Part of the district covers Franklin County, home of Columbus, but it also extends into Licking, Morrow, and Delaware counties — which never, ever vote for Democrats.
“None of them have voted Democratic for president since at least 1964, and Delaware hasn’t voted Democratic since 1916, the longest Republican-voting streak of any county in Ohio,” Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who wrote a book on the state’s politics, noted last month.
But he also noted that Delaware County (and much of the district) is better educated and wealthier than the nation as a whole — and those highly educated white voters tend to be the most skeptical of Trump. From Kondik:
That said, Delaware is also the most affluent and educated county in Ohio, and it’s also the fastest-growing. It’s also one of only four (of 88 total) counties in Ohio where Donald Trump actually performed worse than Mitt Romney (to put that in context, Trump improved 11 points on Romney’s statewide margin in Ohio, turning a three-point loss into an eight-point win in a traditional bellwether state).
Updating his prognosis this week, Kondik was much more bullish on the Democratic chances of taking the Ohio 12th, pointing to their strong showing in the Arizona special election earlier this month.
“In our mid-March update, we questioned the ability of Democrats to truly compete for this seat because of its longstanding Republican lineage, but a strong Democratic showing in AZ-8’s recent special — the Democrat lost by less than five points in a solidly Republican district that Trump carried by 21 points — is an indicator that OH-12 should be an extremely competitive race,” he wrote.
This all helps to explain why Democrats believe a Leneghan candidacy on the Republican side gives them the best shot — this is a district that might already be skeptical of Trump and its independents and more moderate Republicans might be willing to back a Democrat if the alternative is an archconservative hugging Trump as tightly as she can.
It should be a competitive August election and, given how those have gone for Republicans lately, it could be the next harbinger of a 2018 Democratic wave.
I am backing Danny O’Connor and I hope you will too. The primary is next Tuesday. Click here to donate and get involved with O’Connor’s campaign.