Before he became the NSA, John Bolton laid out a series of steps to “get out of the Iran Deal”. It was published in National Review.
Rereading that article a few things become clear.
1. Bolton had grossly overestimated Trump’s competence to mount any kind of “public diplomacy” or “bringing in allies”, which he advocates repeatedly in the article, as things that must be done prior and after withdrawal. We may still see war hawks deployed on Fox News, but it’s a far cry from Bolton’s strategy. For example he said:
U.S. leadership here is critical, especially through a diplomatic and public education effort to explain a decision not to certify and to abrogate the JCPOA. Like any global campaign, it must be persuasive, thorough, and accurate. Opponents, particularly those who participated in drafting and implementing the JCPOA, will argue strongly against such a decision, contending that it is reckless, ill-advised, and will have negative economic and security consequences.
Accordingly, we must explain the grave threat to the U.S. and our allies, particularly Israel. The JCPOA’s vague and ambiguous wording; its manifest imbalance in Iran’s direction; Iran’s significant violations; and its continued, indeed, increasingly, unacceptable conduct at the strategic level internationally demonstrate convincingly that the JCPOA is not in the national-security interests of the United States. We can bolster the case for abrogation by providing new, declassified information on Iran’s unacceptable behavior around the world.
it’s obvious, the administration has failed in all three of the highlighted strategic steps outlined above. With regard to the last one in particular, they couldn’t even find any new declassified information. The best they had were pre-deal “documents” showing Iran had thought about a nuclear device 15 years ago and somehow intends to use the same technology 12 years from now to build a bomb. (Actually even those were lies: Ancient documents supplied by “member states” that UN had possession of, but could not verify as authentic)
2. He is after regime change. All nuclear concerns is bullshit. The economic pressure is not about getting Iran to drop its joke of a nuclear enrichment program, or really even force a change in the rest of the region. It’s about getting Iranian people to blame the government when they are sick and hungry as a result of sanctions, so that “regime change” can happen with minimal American cost. It’s about hurting Iranians and fomenting rebellion. How else do we explain his recommendations below?
‐ End all landing and docking rights for all Iranian aircraft and ships at key allied ports;
‐ End all visas for Iranians, including so called “scholarly,” student, sports, or other exchanges;
‐ Demand payment with a set deadline on outstanding U.S. federal-court judgments against Iran for terrorism, including 9/11;
‐ Announce U.S. support for the democratic Iranian opposition;
‐ Expedite delivery of bunker-buster bombs;
‐ Announce U.S. support for Kurdish national aspirations, including Kurds in Iran, Iraq, and Syria;
‐ Provide assistance to Balochis, Khuzestan Arabs, Kurds, and others — also to internal resistance among labor unions, students, and women’s groups;
‐ Actively organize opposition to Iranian political objectives in the U.N.
What is truly scary is that despite his well-thought-out series of preliminary steps totally not working out; despite the diplomacy angle being botched and despite trump not having any real European or UN allies, he’s going right ahead with the plan. What this shows is that those steps, supposedly designed to keep damage to US reputation and troops minimal, were never material, only public relations. It means Bolton couldn’t give a shit what the costs are to this country. That’s what’s frightening.
The last issue, is that even if we suppose all the the steps were competently follows by Trump, now what? Those by themselves don’t actually accomplish regime change. Neither do they provide a pretext to war. So what is missing to accomplish both goals? The pretext. He may have thought that Iranians would be pushed to the edge and actually do something stupid in “retaliation” for these ridiculous charges. That’s also what the Neocons thought Saddam would surely do after the humiliating oil-for-food program or inspection of his palace basements. It hasn’t happened in either country. So that’s why I say again: Watch out for false flag operations in the coming weeks or months. Investigate and verify everything ASAP. We cannot trust news of any international incident that “happens” to have occurred at this crucial time.