Trump’s not that surprising decisions yesterday to violate the Iran deal put America on a path all alone. We stand on one side with the lone support of Israel with Iran, England, France, Germany, China, Russia and 7 UN security council resolutions all on the other side, several of whom contain provisions that are exactly what Trump says was missing from the JCPoA deal.
Resolution 2231's Principal Provisions
This resolution endorsed the comprehensive nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) reached between Iran and the P5+1 on July 14, 2015, and laid the groundwork for the Security Council to lift nuclear-related sanctions on Iran when Tehran completed key steps under the deal that restricted its nuclear activities. Iran met the requirements in January 16, 2016.
Resolution 2231 retains the arms embargo on Iran for five years after implementation and the sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program for eight years. Both could be lifted earlier if the IAEA reaches a determination about Iran’s nuclear program known as the Broader Conclusion. These sanctions are "nuclear-related" as they were put in place under Resolution 1929. Iran is also “called upon” not to undertake activities on ballistic missiles designed to be nuclear-capable.
The resolution requests that if states engage in the sale of dual-use materials to Iran, they use the procurement channel application process set up by the JCPOA to regulate Iran's imports of these materials.
Follow Trump’s announcement Israel stepped up their airstrikes agains suspected Iranian positions in Syria. Clearly this was an attempt to provoke them and spark justification for a an larger Israeli strike against Iran nuclear installation in country.
But what if something extraordinary occurs? What if Iran doesn’t take the bait, what if instead they listen to Chancellor Merkle, Prime Minister May, and Presidents Macron and Xi and the deal doesn’t crumble but instead remains in place?
What then?
In the worse case scenario — Iran could practically blow up.
TEHRAN -- For most Iranians, and certainly the government of President Hassan Rouhani, President Donald Trump's decision to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal was a devastating blow. Hardliners in Tehran were maneuvering on Wednesday to take advantage.
CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer says conservative lawmakers burned a paper U.S. flag in Iran's Parliament and chanted the familiar refrain, "death to America!" Later Wednesday, angry students protested in front of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, burning more American flags and offering similar chants against the U.S.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blasted Mr. Trump's speech as "silly and superficial," claiming it contained at least "10 lies," but offering no specifics. "You have made a mistake, Trump," Khamenei said, arguing that Mr. Trump couldn't "do a damn thing" to harm the Islamic Republic.
Hardliners in Iran hope Mr. Trump's decision will mark the beginning of the end of the country's moderate government, led by Rouhani. The president, who staked his reputation on the benefits of the deal, told the world last night that as far as Iran is concerned, the deal is not dead, and he vowed to continue to work with the other five countries still committed to saving it.
Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China had all urged President Trump not to abandon the accord, and most of those nations signaled early on Wednesday a determination to try and keep the deal alive.
Our Allies are clearly on the other side of this situation now.
Key European allies expressed grave concerns over President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear agreement on Tuesday, vowing to continue the work of limiting Iran's nuclear program while urging the U.S. not to jeopardize gains already made under the deal.
In a joint statement issued after Trump's announcement, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel implored Iran "to show restraint" following the decision and called on the U.S. "to do everything possible to preserve the gains for nuclear nonproliferation brought about by the JCPOA, by allowing for a continued enforcement of its main elements."
And the Real President has quite a bit to say about it.
Former President Barack Obama is calling President Trump's decision to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal a "serious mistake" and said walking away from it "turns our back on America's closest allies."
"The reality is clear. The JCPOA is working -- that is a view shared by our European allies, independent experts, and the current U.S. Secretary of Defense," Obama said in a statement Tuesday, referring to the agreement's title, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. "The JCPOA is in America's interest -- it has significantly rolled back Iran's nuclear program. And the JCPOA is a model for what diplomacy can accomplish -- its inspections and verification regime is precisely what the United States should be working to put in place with North Korea."
"We all know the dangers of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon," he said. "It could embolden an already dangerous regime; threaten our friends with destruction; pose unacceptable dangers to America's own security; and trigger an arms race in the world's most dangerous region," he said. "If the constraints on Iran's nuclear program under the JCPOA are lost, we could be hastening the day when we are faced with the choice between living with that threat, or going to war to prevent it."
He also said that "the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America's credibility, and puts us at odds with the world's major powers."
And we really shouldn’t be surprised that Trump did this, he has a long history of breaking his business deals simply in order to cheat his contractors out of receiving their full pay claiming he “isn’t satisfied with their work.”
A USA Today analysis published Thursday uncovered 60 lawsuits by ordinary Americans who say Trump and his businesses failed to pay them for their work.
The list includes plumbers and painters, waiters and bartenders, real estate brokers and even law firms who helped him defend such suits.
The documents reviewed by the newspaper include:
- More than 200 liens since the 1980s that were filed by contractors and workers who said they were stiffed.
- Records released by casino regulators in 1990 that show 253 subcontractors on a single project were not paid in full or on time.
- Twenty-four Fair Labor Act violations by the Trump Plaza casino and Trump Mortgage for failure to pay minimum wage or overtime. The cases were resolved with an agreement to pay back wages.
Trump told USA Today that if someone wasn't paid, it's because their work wasn't up to snuff. And his daughter, Ivanka, said that the number of disputes is tiny compared to the amount of business her father does
That rationale sounds familiar to Paul Friel. His family's cabinetry firm won a $400,000 contract to build desks, bars and slot-machine bases at Trump Plaza in the 1980s.
After they finished and the general contractor approved the work, the company submitted its final bill. Paul and his father Edward were summoned to the casino for a meeting with Trump and his brother, Robert, who told them the work was inferior and they wouldn't get the last payment of $83,600.
Donald Trump told Edward Friel he could still work on future projects, said Paul Friel, adding that the invitation undercut the argument that the work was not satisfactory
So violating existing deals in order to force a better outcome for himself is feature, not a bug.
But he hasn’t thought this out because the US State Dept under Trump. and the UN IEAE have certified that Iran was complying with the deal. They hadn’t been cheating, they hadn’t been lying despite Netanyahu’s big presentation last week which address concerns from over a decade ago which were no longer relevant because those issues were exactly why the international community reached out to make the deal with Iran in the first place.
As Rachel points out the biggest problem is that Trump hasn’t come anywhere near to thinking this through completely. Under Tillerson the State Deptarment’s Sanctions Office was dismantled.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has eliminated a key office within the State Department that coordinates foreign sanctions policy, according to a new report.
Former diplomats and congressional sources told Foreign Policy that Tillerson has eliminated the office of the Coordinator for Sanctions Policy as part of his plan to revamp the State Department.
The Policy Planning Office, which previously did not control programs or initiatives at State, will now be responsible for the work done by the Coordinator of Sanctions Policy Office, according to Foreign Policy.
The magazine reports there are mixed reactions to the elimination of the office.
...
The office was created under former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to work with the Treasury Department to coordinate sanctions across multiple departments in both agencies.
A former State Department official told Foreign Policy that the move is akin to the State Department saying “we’re just going back to the phone where there’s no clear coordination.”
On the Treasury side the head of the Sanctions Office there — quit just last month.
Washington – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced that John E. Smith will be leaving his position as Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in early May. Mr. Smith has served as OFAC’s Director/Acting Director since February 2015 and has been with OFAC for over 11 years, previously serving as its Deputy Director and as an Associate Director.
“John has been a tremendous leader for OFAC with invaluable expertise in the inner workings of its sanctions authorities,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “He has been a central force in Treasury’s response to national security and foreign policy challenges.”
So since Trump has decided to snap back the sanctions on Iran that had been taken down by the deal, exactly how does he plan to do that without the office that does that within State and no head for the sanctions office in Treasury?
Thinking about this logically it took all nations working together in coordination with the UN to bring Iran to the negotiating table — under then SecState Hillary Clinton. Trump thinks seriously that America alone has the economic power over Iran to bring them back to that table in order to make a deal that even worse for them?
That’s ridiculous.
So assuming the Trump admin can even figure out how to re-implement sanctions and who they should be implemented against, it will most likely be against companies in Europe currently doing business Iran — which means the U.S. will be sanctioning Europe. You think they’re going to sit their idly and take that laying down?
WE are the ones breaking an established deal. We are the ones violating international law. We are the ones who other nations have every right and power, to punish of it — not Iran.
Just for the record this is what the Dow Jones has been doing since Trump announced his tariffs against China and Europe.
Dow Jone for past year
What exactly do you think is going to happen to U.S. exports when Europe retaliates against Trump’s impending illegal sanctions over Iran?
And it should happen right in time for the mid-terms. War might be what Trump wanted to start with Iran but if they simply bide their time, the real war will be over trade between the U.S. and everyone else.
Also what Trump has done is Illegal and Unconstitutional.
The Trump Administration has just walked away from the United States’ commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known in the American media as "the Iran Deal."
But it’s not an informal “deal;” it’s a formal international agreement, endorsed by the Security Council of the United Nations, full of rigorous safeguards, duties, terms and conditions crafted through sophisticated, smart diplomatic hard work on the part of the international community. It can’t be easily set aside without undermining the UN, the international community, and the U.S. Constitution.
One fully ratified treaty the United States is bound by is the United Nations Charter. The so-called “Iran Deal” was formally endorsed by the Security Council of the United Nations, the correct international organ to approve the JCPOA. In throwing it out, not only has the Trump administration disregarded its allies and friends, it has diminished the weight of the UN system, and thus the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution, and thus one of the foundations of the United States. This is a serious matter indeed.
By pulling out of the deal, the United States violated an international agreement it solemnly entered into, putting it in a class with nations that pointedly disrespect international cooperation, the rule of law, peace, and nuclear nonproliferation. It’s not just a deal between the U.S. and Iran; by virtue of the UN Security Council resolution the deal is between Iran and the entire world. U.S. withdrawal demonstrates callous disregard for world opinion, and diminishes the world’s trust in America’s word, honor and commitments.
This means the other nations or even U.S. citizens can sue Trump for his decision to pull out of this deal unilaterally without working with our allies and the UN under the Supremacy Clause which essentially makes the UN Charter part of our Constitution.
This is not how Trump expected things to go down, but then again — he’s a rank amateur.
