There’s been a lot of excitement over the sheer number of Democratic women running for Congress this year; women have also broken records as donors to campaigns. But will women be able to win. Well, now that several states have completed their primaries we know the answer to the second question: Hell, yes!
In these five states, in Democratic primary contests that did not include an incumbent:
- Out of 22 races with at least one woman and at least one man, women won 17.
- Out of 39 races total, women won 21.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side:
- Out of 5 races with at least one woman and at least one man, women won 2.
- Out of 26 races total, women won 2.
Is this year any different from 2016, though? Well, two years ago, for Democrats in these five states:
- Out of 10 races with at least one woman and at least one man, women won 6.
- Out of 27 races total, women won 6.
There’s an obvious change compared to this year.
Democratic primaries are one thing. But what about general elections? For that we turn to the special elections. In Democratic vs. Republican special elections, half of Democratic candidates have been women. And half of them have won—the same rate as the men. (For Republicans, a little less than a quarter of their candidates have been women.)
That doesn’t mean half of the women who won their primaries yesterday will win in the fall. Special elections are, by definition, open seats with no incumbent. Every non-incumbent woman who won yesterday will be running in a district currently held by a Republican. Many of them are very difficult seats where it would take a surprise Republican scandal to win, even with no incumbent. But that does happen! For now, women are clearly representing a larger share of politicians running for the House. At least on the Democratic side.