Trudeau came to see me. He’s a good guy, Justin. He said, "No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please"...Nice guy, good-looking guy, comes in — "Donald, we have no trade deficit." He’s very proud because everybody else, you know, we’re getting killed.
… So, he’s proud. I said, "Wrong, Justin, you do." I didn’t even know. … I had no idea. I just said, "You’re wrong." You know why? Because we’re so stupid. … And I thought they were smart. I said, "You’re wrong, Justin." He said, "Nope, we have no trade deficit." I said, "Well, in that case, I feel differently," I said, "but I don’t believe it." I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said, "Check, because I can’t believe it."
"Well, sir, you’re actually right. We have no deficit, but that doesn’t include energy and timber. … And when you do, we lose $17 billion a year." It’s incredible.
- Donald Trump, March 14, 2018
This is Part 2 of my some number of parts series of random thoughts on trying to make sense of the communication skills of Donald Trump.
Part 1 is here.
In light of Trump
fucking up the world economy for no reason, I think its a good time to return to what has to be the most wrong/false/incorrect/dishonest quote in presidential history. The quote above is from a fundraiser in Missouri in March, and I think it is the perfect quote to use to illustrate how TrumpSpeak works (and it also provides some useful insights into Trump’s views on trade).
Now, to be clear, I’m not claiming that this is the
worst thing that a president has ever said — that is a much more subjective question (personally I think it’s
Trump’s Memorial Day tweet, but that is a different discussion) — or the most consequential false thing a president has said. What I am talking about is the quote that, if taken literally, will lead the audience to believe the largest quantity of incorrect things about reality. I believe that the sheer volume of untruth contained in this paragraph has never been matched. The “word to bullshit” ratio in this relatively short anecdote is just incredible. I’ll try to break it down.
Bullshit Type #1 — Bad faith is good
The first falsehood is the story within the story, the statement Trump claims to have made to
Trudeau without regard to its veracity. Ignoring the rest for now, the audience is being told, by the President of the United States, that there should not by any expectation good faith in negotiations between world leaders (and in fact that acting in bad faith is better). “Trust but Verify” has been replaced by “LOL nothing matters”.
Bullshit Type #2 — Trade Deficits are per se bad
Multiple times here, Trump implies that a trade deficit is by definition an obviously negative thing: Having a trade deficit is “getting killed”; prior US administrations were “stupid” and Canada was “smart” so obviously the US is the party with the deficit; Trump thinks that Trudeau claiming that Canada has a deficit is a shrewd negotiating move; Trump is ok with the US-Canadian situation as long as the US does not have a net deficit; Trump “wins” the argument by showing that the US has a deficit. This is all fundamentally and objectively incorrect. In a vacuum,
a deficit indicates nothing about who got the “better” deal (I’ve also
previously written about how I think Trump doesn’t even understand what the word “deficit” means). Anyone in Trump’s audience who takes his words literally will come away with an incorrect impression of the economics of international trade.
Bullshit Type #3 — These numbers are not real
This is more along the lines of usual Trump bullshit, but the climax of Trump’s story - that the United States has a $17 Billion trade deficit with Canada -
is not correct. The United States has a trade surplus with Canada, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. It shouldn’t really matter, as explained in Bullshit #2, but he’s still wrong anyway.
Bullshit Type #4 — NONE OF THIS FUCKING HAPPENED!!!!
This entire story is fiction. This interaction
did not actually occur. This story is presented to the audience as an interesting inside look at a presidential activity, but none of this happened in reality. Trudeau did not "come to see" Trump to discuss trade. There was no meeting between the two where an aid was sent out to confirm deficit numbers. No one told him that he was right when “you include energy and timber”. If you listened to the president’s account of his trade meeting with Trudeau and came away thinking that the President had a trade meeting with Trudeau, well, you would be incorrect.
_____
Ok, so then what was the point of the story? Why would someone tell a story, presented as fact, about a fictional encounter that involves him telling a lie based on an incorrect understanding, where the “resolution” involves more veritably incorrect information?
What was Trump really “saying” here?
Well, that part is pretty easy.
As I mentioned in Part 1, all Trump was saying to the crowd here is, “I am the best!” (with one “My enemies are the worst!” thrown in there as well).
Breaking it down:
Trudeau came to see me. He’s a good guy, Justin. He said, "No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please"...Nice guy, good-looking guy, comes in — "Donald, we have no trade deficit." He’s very proud because everybody else, you know, we’re getting killed.… So, he’s proud.
Translation: He came to me begging, because I am the best. The best people have nice proud good looking guys begging them for stuff.
I said, "Wrong, Justin, you do." I didn’t even know. … I had no idea. I just said, "You’re wrong."
Translation: I am the best. The best guys just shoot from the hip, wing it, bluff.
You know why? Because we’re so stupid. … And I thought they were smart.
Translation: My enemies (prior administrations) are the worst.
I said, "You’re wrong, Justin." He said, "Nope, we have no trade deficit." I said, "Well, in that case, I feel differently," I said, "but I don’t believe it." I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said, "Check, because I can’t believe it."
Translation: I am so much the best that his guys and my guys all leap to obey me.
"Well, sir, you’re actually right. We have no deficit, but that doesn’t include energy and timber. … And when you do, we lose $17 billion a year." It’s incredible.
Translation: This one is easy. I am so much the best that I am right even when I’m not even trying.
So the full translation of that entire story is: “I am the best and my enemies are the worst.”
Does this mean that it is completely pointless to ever pay attention to the words Trump says? Not really. His words are useful in terms of understanding the things that he thinks that other people think represent awesomeness.
For instance, we know that Trump clearly thinks that people find it awesome that he bluffs and makes things up on the fly in regards to international trade. And he thinks that people think people find it awesome even when he is doing so with our allies. And we know that he thinks that people believe that trade deficits are ipso facto bad.
And that understanding makes things like
today’s idiotic own-goal in trade more predictable. So, that’s something, I guess.