We’re back with part 6 of my state legislative rundown series. Last Friday we looked at the Iowa Senate while today we will take a gander at the Iowa House of Representatives. As we concluded in the Senate piece, a R → D flip is pretty unlikely given that only half the seats are up and it’s a pretty bad map for Democrats. However, the House has all 100 seats up, giving Democrats a much better opportunity at a flip. Democrats enter these elections in a 59-41 hole. Not a fun spot to be in but also not insurmountable. The magic number for a power sharing agreement is 9, and for a full flip, it is 10. This is going to be a looong piece due to the nature of the subject matter, so strap in. First though, the ratings chart:
Iowa House Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
26 (D) |
43 (R) |
9 (D) |
73 (R) |
20 (R) |
29 (D) |
44 (R) |
16 (R) |
94 (R) |
37 (R) |
81 (D) |
68 (R) |
38 (R) |
|
63 (R) |
|
83 (D) |
39 (R) |
|
76 (R) |
|
|
42 (R) |
|
97 (R) |
|
|
51 (R) |
|
|
|
|
55 (R) |
|
|
|
|
57 (R) |
|
|
|
|
60 (R) |
|
|
|
|
67 (R) |
|
|
|
|
91 (R) |
|
|
|
|
92 (R) |
|
|
|
|
95 (R) |
|
|
* Parentheses = denotes party that currently holds seat
Likely D: 26, 29, 81
26th District: Scott Ourth
Ourth represents HD-26, which includes most of Warren County south of Des Moines. It has an R+5 PVI, going from Obama by 1.5 to Trump by 14, though Ourth was able to run way ahead of Trump, winning this seat when it was open in 2016, an impressive feat. He did it by beating a man with an amazing name: Rebel Snodgrass. Snodgrass is back for a rematch but if he couldn’t do it while Trump was romping statewide, I find it hard to believe it’s magically going to happen for ole Rebel in 2018, so we put it at Likely D.
29th District: Wesley Breckenridge
HD-29 is mostly in Jasper County and it went from Obama by 13.5 to Trump by 12 in 2016. However, Breckenridge was able to win it that year, even though it was open, another impressive victory. However, it was open because Breckenridge beat the old incumbent in a primary before winning a 51-37-12 three-way race. This makes him a strong favorite for re-election and his opponent seems like a Some Dude, so we rate it Likely D.
81st District: Mary Gaskill
This southeastern Iowa House District is in Wapello County and has been held by Mary Gaskill since 2003. She’s won a lot of races over the year and is so strong that the GOP didn’t even challenge her last time around, which makes it tough to get a sense of her position in this seat, as it swung from Obama by 15 to Trump by 16. Gaskill doesn’t have a ton of money and will be facing Cherilynn Westrich, who pre-primary, had just $400 in the bank. Thus, I find it hard to believe Gaskill would actually lose in 2018, but we’ll make it Likely D just to be cautious since we don’t have a real 2016 margin.
Lean D: 43*, 44*, 68*, 83
43th District: Open (Hagenow)
Located in suburban Des Moines, this seat profiles like a lot of both state and congressional districts nationwide. Normally Republican leaning, but revolted against Trump in 2016. It went from a narrow Obama win to a 12 point Clinton rout, one of the few places in Iowa that saw that kind of shift. It gives the seat a D+2 PVI and since it is open, it’s the easiest Democratic pickup in the state. Oh, and the Democratic candidate Jennifer Konfrst (Drake University Professor) has over $40,000 in the bank while the Republican has $6,000. This one is probably toast for the GOP.
44th District: Open (Taylor)
Right next door to HD-43 is HD-44, another suburban Des Moines seat, located just across the county border in neighboring Dallas County. In 2012, Mitt Romney won here by almost 14 points, but in 2016, Trump won it by just 3, showing how far this seat shifted in the Democratic direction. With another retiring incumbent, it gives Democrats an opportunity and they have landed a top tier recruit: Kenan Judge, CEO of the HyVee grocery store brand. Judge knows what he’s doing and already has an astonishing $70,000 in the warchest, while the GOP candidate is Waukee City Council-member Anna Bergman. Bergman has $8,000 in the bank, meaning it’s going to be a very steep climb, and Judge will get to blanket the Des Moines airwaves. All of these factors mean that Democrats are favored to pick this one up.
68th District: Open (Rizer)
Incumbent Republican Ken Rizer is retiring in this suburban Cedar Rapids seat, sensing that it would be a mighty tough re-election attempt. In 2016, Rizer won another term over teacher Molly Donahue by a narrow margin, even while Clinton beat Trump here by 4, getting boosted by the incumbency advantage. Donahue is back for a rematch but will instead have to face Republican businessman Randy Ray. Ray doesn’t have a lot of money in the bank, nor does he have the incumbency advantage, or the good pro-GOP environment that Rizer got to benefit from. All things considered, this is a Lean D seat that Democrats are on course to flip.
83rd District: Open (Keanrs)
Located in the exact southeastern tip of the state in Lee County, HD-83 is seeing incumbent Democrat Jerry Kearns retire, making it one of two uncomfortable open Democratic defense seats in the State House. It’s an EVEN seat that went from Obama by 19 to Trump by 13, making it very hard to size up politically entering 2018. Democrats have a wide voter registration edge here and Bruce Braley won here, even while also getting spanked statewide, so I make Dems the favorites to hold it, though just slightly. Retired union worker Jeff Kurtz (D) will be going up against small businessman Jeffery Reichman and neither candidate has much money, so it’s tough to get a read on things, but Lean D feels appropriate.
-NOTE-
So we have a weird situation that makes a certain seat impossible to rate and I felt here is a good point to put it. HD-56 in northeast Iowa, which flipped from R→ D by a narrow margin in 2016, is seeing its freshman incumbent retire. Democrats had nurse Lori Egan file to run, and she’s raising an adequate amount of money. The Republicans didn’t bother to recruit and accepted a guy named Dale Bolsinger who volunteered to run right before the deadline. It turns out that Bolsinger is actually a Democrat who was trying to win the Republican nomination and trick the Iowa GOP into creating a general election into Democrat vs. Democrat. An elections complaint kicked him off the ballot and it means that Republicans will get to pick a candidate at their June convention, even though the primary has already passed with no one on the ballot. However, the whole thing was a giant embarrassment to the state party, showing appalling disorganization and a lack of any kind of background research. It’s an R+7 seat that went from Obama by 5 to Trump by 24, so it’s tough to get a sense of where the seat is politically and until we know the GOP candidate, I can’t really rate it accurately.
Tossup: 9, 16, 38, 39, 42, 51, 55, 57, 60, 67, 91, 92, 95
9th District: Open (Miller)
Here’s the most endangered Democratic seat in the State House, located in Webster County. Incumbent Democrat Helen Miller is retiring, meaning that Dems have to defend an R+3 Obama/Trump seat. Both sides have good candidates, with Democrats getting Dr. Megan Srinivas and Republicans getting nurse Ann Meyer, who both have over $30,000 in the bank (weirdly high amount of money at this stage). While Trump won by a ton here, Bruce Braley did keep this district left of the state as a whole, suggesting Democrats will have a good shot here if they’re doing well statewide. Likely to be a tough battle to the end, it’s the only true GOP offensive opportunity and it’ll be key towards determining the majority.
16th District: Mary Ann Hanusa
HD-16 is located in Council Bluffs in the southwestern portion of the state and has been represented by Mary Ann Hanusa for awhile, which will make her hard to beat. She won in 2016 by a margin of 57-43, but she doesn’t have a ton of money in the bank, a sum that has already been matched by Democratic nominee Steve Gorman, a retired firefighter. As Bleeding Heartland notes in this excellent post that includes other good details about the battle for the State House, HD-16 mirrored the statewide margin in both the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. It was also frighteningly close to accurate in the 2014 Senate and Governor races as well, meaning that if the Iowa gubernatorial race is close, then this district will likely be close at the top of the ticket. That could help out Gorman, but we still make Hanusa a small favorite.
38th District: Kevin Koester
Located in northern Polk County in the working class and quickly growing Des Moines suburb of Ankeny, this seat moved towards Democrats relative to the state as a whole, going from a tiny Obama win to a 7 point Clinton loss. At the same time, Kevin Koester was winning a close race over local activist Heather Matson, who is back for a rematch. Matson already has more money in the bank than Koester, and she’s hoping that a better environment boosts her over the top in 2018. This figures to be a very tight race and a key one that Democrats need if they want to retake the State House.
39th District: Jake Highfill
We stay in suburban Des Moines for HD-39, represented by Jake Highfill since 2013. In his time in the Iowa House, Highfill has run some tight races in a seat that really moved towards Dems in 2016. It went from Romney by 13 to Trump by 5, underscoring the troubling demographics of the district for Republicans. Democrats think they finally have the candidate to topple Highfill, lawyer Karin Derry. Derry already has $33,000 in the bank, while Highfill has just $10,000, showing it is going to be a tight and expensive race, probably the toughest fight of Highfill’s career, which warrants the tossup rating.
42nd District: Peter Cownie
Another suburban Des Moines seat, HD-42 is one that is going to be a top Democratic pickup opportunity this fall. In 2016, HD-42 went from a narrow Obama win to a decisive (9 point) Clinton win, almost dooming the incumbent Cownie, who hung on by a small margin after a bitter and expensive battle. Democrats have new opponent Kristin Sunde, a health care advocate, in the race. She’s already got $18,000 in the bank since getting in not all that long ago, showing that she’ll have the money to beat the well funded Cownie. The DLCC has endorsed Sunde and is giving her access to their resources, showing they think she’s got a real shot, and obviously the close race in 2016 suggests Dems were close even in a horrific year for them in Iowa. A better environment could be the difference in 2018, and this is the type of seat that is essential for a Democratic majority.
51st District: Jane Bloomingdale
HD-51 is in northern Iowa along the Minnesota border. It’s an R+5 seat that went from Obama +12 to Trump +23. Within the district is Howard County, the only Obama +20/Trump +20 county in the USA, profiled here by Dave Wasserman. Bloomingdale won it as an open seat in 2016, buoyed by Trump’s long coattails in this district. Democrats hope they can get this district to swing back, and it was a narrow Ernst win, even while she was winning handily statewide, showing that this type of district was, as recent as 2014, left of the state as a whole. Democrats think they have the candidate to flip it back, rural hospital administrator Tim Knutson. He’s raised enough money to make this a close race and so I consider it a pretty good Democratic pickup opportunity.
55th District: Michael Bergan
Located in northeastern Iowa, HD-55 was held by Democrats until 2014, though the seat re-opened in 2016. The incumbent Bergan was able to win the open seat thanks to facing an opponent that raised almost no money, running ahead of Trump’s 7 point win. Bergan won’t have that luxury again, having to face farmer and agricultural educator Kayla Koether, who is running a good campaign and already has $21,000 in the bank, compared to a paltry $900 from Bergan. Obama won here by 12 in 2012 and it’s a seat firmly to the left of the state as a whole. That makes me believe that Koether is probably the favorite right now, but not enough of one to warrant a Lean D rating, though it could be there. This is a key Democratic pickup opportunity.
57th District: Shannon Lundgren
One of the closest battles in the 2016 Iowa House elections was here in HD-57, consisting of outer Dubuque County. This was an open seat in 2016, which Lundgren won by a margin of 52-48 despite Trump romping at the top of the ticket. Obama actually lost this district by less than a point, but Democrats have done well here in the past and the 2016 results presents an opening in a better environment. Lundgren has been the face of Iowa’s anti-abortion laws which could make her more vulnerable. Her opponent is teacher Nancy Fett, who currently has more money in the bank than Lundgren. This figures to be a tight battle going forward, but a good opportunity for Dems.
60th District: Walt Rogers
We’re now in suburban Waterloo for the 60th district, held by GOP incumbent Walt Rogers. It’s one of the few seats that moved towards Democrats relative to the state as a whole in 2016, with Trump winning it by just 4. In 2018, Rogers will be facing John Deere Operator and his next door neighbor Dave Williams! Both have about the same amount of money in the bank, so it figures to be at least a pretty close race, appropriate for the tossup rating.
67th District: Ashley Hinson
We return to suburban Cedar Rapids for another similar seat, HD-67. This is the rare GOP-held Obama/Clinton seat with a D+2 PVI. If it were open, it would probably be an easy Democratic pickup, but strong incumbent Ashley Hinson complicates things. Hinson is only a first term Rep. but she has a lot of money in the bank. Despite Clinton winning this district, Hinson won the open seat easily (63-37), as Democrats ran a Some Dude with no money. This time around they have teacher/Linn County Deputy Sheriff Eric Gjerde. Gjerde already has $35,000 in the bank, way more than the 2016 Democrat ever did, giving him enough to compete with the well funded Hinson. This is an interesting race to watch as it pits the power of incumbency versus the district/national fundamentals, deserving the tossup rating.
91st District: Gary Carlson
Another very good pickup opportunity is here in eastern Iowa, specifically Muscatine. A district with a D+1 PVI, it’s another seat that would be an easy pickup if it were open, but the presence of incumbent Gary Carlson complicates things. Carlson won a close race in 2016 as the seat shifted from Obama by 17 to Trump by 6, which still makes it left of the state as a whole. In 2018, Carlson will be facing businesswoman Laura Liegois who has worked in Muscatine government in the past. She isn’t knocking the doors off the hinges in terms of fundraising, but she is still fairly new to the race. Expect it to be a tight race, and another one Democrats probably need if they want to win the State House majority.
92nd District: Ross Paustian
HD-92 is an R+2 district located in western Scott County and has been represented by the Incumbent Paustian off and on for most of the last 8 years. However, he is not invincible, as he was defeated in a re-election bid in 2012, only to win the seat back in 2014 and win by a solid but not convincing margin in 2016. Like HD-16, this is a seat that has a habit of mirroring the statewide result, so if Hubbell is winning the gubernatorial election, his coattails could hurt Paustian, who will be facing retired social worker Jean Simpson. Paustian doesn’t have a ton of money in the bank, showing his less than terrific record as an incumbent, while Simpson has $6,000 in the bank after being in the race for not a long amount of time.
95th District: Louis Zumbach
Zumbach won this outer Linn County district when it was open in 2016 by a 58-42 margin. Trump was winning here 52-42, and it has only a modest R+3 PVI. Zumbach’s opponent in 2016 was fairly weak, with his 2018 opponent on pace to raise far more money. That opponent is public works employee Christian Andrews, who already has $12,000 in the warchest, very similar to Zumbach’s $15,000. This, along with the fact it’s an Obama district give it the real shot to flip to the Democrats in 2018, landing it here.
Lean R: 73, 94
73rd District: Bobby Kaufmann
This district is in outer Johnson County stretching into the whole of Cedar County and has an R+1 PVI. It went from a 54-45 Obama win to a 51-43 Trump win, so not the massive swing that some of the state saw. However, Democrats were not in position to take advantage as they left Kaufmann unopposed. Kaufmann first won the seat in 2012 and won more decisively in 2014, so he will not be an easy out. However, the swingy nature of the district puts it on the radar, and Democrats have small business owner Jodi Clemens in the race, and she already has $17,000 in the bank, which is what she’ll need to consistently raise to beat someone like Kaufmann. It’s not a top pickup opportunity but it’s one to keep an eye out for.
94th District: Gary Mohr
Located in eastern Iowa centered on Bettendorf, HD-94 was called by Bleeding Heartland in that same article as the House Bellwether, saying that if it is close, then Dems have a shot to flip the chamber. As the article explains, it is half suburban and half working class, making it an interesting mix, though the R+5 PVI seat actually did shift substantially towards Clinton relative to the state as a whole in 2016. Incumbent Gary Mohr was unopposed in 2016 and will be a very tough out, but retired audiologist Joan Marttila is running a legitimate enough campaign to make things interesting. Again, this isn’t a top tier pickup opportunity, but if it is tight, expect the battle for the chamber to be tight.
Likely R: 20, 37, 63, 76, 97
20th District: Open (Baulder)
Located mostly in Guthrie and Adair Counties, this R+8 district is an open seat that Obama lost narrowly and Trump won by a lot. In that way, it’s not a top tier pickup opportunity but Democrats have a seemingly solid candidate in farmer Warren Varley, who already has $11,000 in the bank. The Republicans have businessman Ray Sorensen who has $3,000 after spending some money on the primary. The district fundamentals put it in Likely R, but it’s one to keep an eye on.
37th District: John Landon
This is a fringe suburb seat in northern Polk County. It went from a big Romney win to a medium Trump win, meaning it took a huge shift leftwards relative to the state as a whole. Landon won by a solid margin in 2016 and he is in no way a pushover, but Democrats think they have a good candidate in Des Moines Education Association President Andrew Rasmussen. Rasmussen needs to pick up the fundraising but it’s a race to put on the radar at Likely R.
63rd District: Sandy Salmon
HD-63 is in the northern reaches of Blackhawk County outside of Waterloo, stretching upwards to take in the entirety of Bremer County. The incumbent, who has an incredible name, won easily in 2016, so it’s not an immediate pickup opportunity, especially with an R+5 PVI. But, the Democratic candidate in the race, professor Eric Stromberg, is running a legitimate campaign, so it’s worth taking a look at, if only in the Likely R column.
76th District: David Maxwell
Another reach target, HD-76 consists of Poweshek and parts of Iowa County. It was a narrow Obama win before a solid Trump win, but not a blowout. That gives it an R+4 PVI, though the incumbent Maxwell is quite strong, which should make it a clear Republican hold. Still, it’s an Obama district, which makes me at least mention it, even if the Democratic candidate, local mom Ann Egley, is pretty unknown, though running a real campaign. Not much else to say here.
97th District: Norlin Mommsen
Here we have another Obama/Trump district, which is enough to land it in Likely R. Republican Norlin Mommsen, another weird name, cruised to re-election on the back of a Trump landslide here in eastern Iowa. The Democratic candidate is former probation/parole officer Tim McClimon, who already has about the same amount of cash as Mommsen, which at least makes things somewhat interesting. It’s another one to keep your eye on.
Path to a Democratic Majority
So now that we’ve covered the districts, let’s take a look at the most likely path to a Democratic House majority, broken down into steps:
Step 1: Clean up in the Des Moines area
Much like the path to the US House majority, a path to the Iowa House majority begins with a bloodbath in big city suburbia. Democrats can net 5 seats just from the Des Moines area. In order, the likelihood of those pickups are: 43, 44, 42, 38, 39. Among those 5, 2 are rated Lean D and the other 3 are tossups, but Democrats have to like their chances in those tossup seats. Additionally, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fred Hubbell is from the Des Moines area and has the potential to do really well in that part of the state. If he’s close to winning statewide, there will probably be coattails in these districts to ride. Let’s say for the sake of cautiousness, Democrats net 4 here.
Step 2: Continue suburban dominance in other population centers
Unlike popular belief, which characterizes Iowa as farms and Des Moines, there are other mid-size cities that keep the state swingy politically, and these districts also are key to the Democratic majority. The 67th and 68th in suburban Cedar Rapids, along with the 60th in suburban Waterloo present clear opportunities for Democratic pickups. The 68th is in the Lean D column, while Democrats will need to win at least one of the other two in this section to be on track for the majority. Let’s say they net 2 here, for 6 so far.
Step 3: Win back some old Dem turf
Winning a majority will have to require being able to win again in some places that really moved away from Clinton in 2016. This starts with the 55th in northeastern Iowa, where as I mentioned, Democrats are probably slight favorites. But also the 56th, where the GOP has the weird missing candidate situation, along with the 91st, 51st, and the 57th. Democrats probably need to net 3 of the 4 options here, which would leave you at 9.
Step 4: Defend your one vulnerable seat
Democrats really only have one seat in true danger, HD-9 in Webster County. As we mentioned, it figures to be a tight and expensive race. Democrats need to hold on here or else they’ll have to find two pickups in Step 5 instead of one.
Step 5: Flip one other for outright majority or else settle for power-sharing agreement
Last but not least, Democrats will have to find one more seat to flip or else settle for a 50-50 split and a tenuous power sharing agreement. This could come from any number of places: 16, 92, 95, or any of the seats in Lean R or Likely R. Netting one gives Democrats the magic 10 pickups for a 51-49 majority.
Bottom Line
So that’s the path to the majority. Looking at the ratings chart, it requires winning the 3 favored pickups in the Lean D column, along with winning 8 of 14 tossups. Because of that, Republicans are probably still favored to keep the State House, but not big enough favorites to warrant anything other than a tossup rating. More than anything, 2018 just needs to be a cycle where Iowa Democrats show the US that they are still alive as a party. Flipping say, 7 seats, would be acceptable, as it would put Democrats in position to flip the chamber in 2020 (along with the State Senate), but obviously, the goal should be for a majority. Coupled with the gubernatorial election, US House election, and Secretary of State election, 2018 is very crucial in Iowa as we look towards the 2020 Presidential election and a huge Senate race here (Ernst is up for re-election). I will definitely be watching the Hawkeye State this fall, and you should too.
Chamber Rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: D+4 to D+13