The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Primaries: Tuesday brought us primaries in five states—Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia—and we'll cover the outcomes the next Digest, but in the meantime, you can find the raw results here. Note that Maine's secretary of state says that final results might not be available until next week for their primary, which was conducted using instant-runoff voting.
● SC-01: Rep. Mark Sanford got more time to explore the Appalachian Trail on Tuesday night when state Rep. Katie Arrington defeated him in the Republican primary for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District.
Campaign Action
Sanford, who conceded defeat hours after the polls closed, trailed Arrington 50.6-46.5 with 99 percent of precincts reporting when we put the Digest to bed. Until Tuesday, Sanford had shown a knack for surviving self-inflicted political disaster. However, the former governor only defeated an underfunded state representative 56-44 in the 2016 primary, a sign that he didn't exactly have a solid base of support behind him in this seat that runs along South Carolina's southern coast, even years after his 2009 sex scandal and 2013 comeback.
Yet despite his poor showing, Sanford continued to take risks by criticizing Trump numerous times despite usually voting with him. The congressman didn't seem to really care, musing to Politico as far back as February of last year that he was "a dead man walking. If you've already been dead, you don't fear it as much. I've been dead politically."
Sanford kept digging his grave over the ensuing months, opining that Trump had done "some weird stuff" in office (though he was hardly one to talk) and calling Trump's tariffs "an experiment with stupidity." All of that suited Arrington just fine: She ran ad after ad arguing that the district needed a pro-Trump loyalist like herself. Arrington also didn't shy away from hitting the congressman over his old scandals as she implored voters to turn the page on the Mark Sanford era.
Trump himself tweeted out his support for Arrington three hours before the polls closed, declaring that Sanford was "nothing but trouble" and "better off in Argentina." His endorsement came too late to move the needle in any material way, but Sanford's downfall is going to make congressional Republicans even more unwilling to part with Trump on anything for fear of becoming the next Mark Sanford (minus all that Appalachian Trail stuff, of course).
Sanford also became just the second House member to lose renomination this cycle, following Republican Robert Pittenger in North Carolina, who narrowly went down under rather different circumstances last month. While South Carolina's 1st Congressional District narrowed somewhat at the presidential level in 2016, going from 58-40 Romney to 53-40 Trump, it's very likely to stay red. However, Democrat Joe Cunningham had raised some $527,000 as of the last week of May, not far behind the $583,000 Arrington's taken in during her campaign.
Senate
● MT-Sen: State Auditor Matt Rosendale's first ad after winning the GOP primary takes on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester on immigration. In the spot, Rosendale delivers a tough-guy speech to a seemingly all-white crowd where he bemoans "illegals" and claims Tester "had a chance to stop sanctuary cities, but he voted with them." The vote he's referring to was a failed amendment earlier this year that would have cut off certain federal funding for cities that don't comply with federal immigration laws.
● ND-Sen: Kevin Cramer's women's outreach campaign continued this week when the Republican speculated to the Washington Post that Donald Trump is giving Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp preferential treatment because of her gender.
Cramer was miffed that Heitkamp got to stand near Trump at a bill signing last month while Cramer was positioned behind him. Cramer declared the video of the event was "obscene," and speculated that Trump was so friendly to the Democrat because, "I do think there's a little difference in that she's a woman," adding, "That's probably part of it—that she's a, you know, a female. He doesn't want to be that aggressive, maybe. I don't know." Yes, he really thinks Donald Trump is less aggressive to women than to men.
Heitkamp herself has also gone up with a TV spot touting her willingness to vote with Trump in this dark red state. She tells the audience that she told them six years ago she wouldn't vote the party line "because I don't think either party has all the right answers." She then says she's voted over half the time with Trump "and that made a lot of people in Washington mad." She continues by saying that "when I agree with him, I vote with him. And if his policies hurt North Dakota, he knows I'll speak up."
● OH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's latest ad features him speaking from a steel mill, where he touts his record of protecting Ohio jobs by opposing free-trade deals that put jobs at risk of outsourcing.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: On behalf of Dunleavy for Alaska (which confusingly is a PAC supporting former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy rather than his actual campaign), Dittman Research is out with the first poll of the August GOP primary. The survey, which was done last week, finds Dunleavy beating former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell by a wide 46-19, with wealthy businessman Scott Hawkins at 7.
● CO-Gov: Rep. Jared Polis' latest ad ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary showcases him narrating the spot in Spanish while he plays baseball. As he makes an extended analogy to the sport, Polis argues for establishing free universal preschool education, protecting public lands from the Trump administration, and switching to entirely renewable energy by 2040.
Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne put down $100,000 behind her own latest commercial. The narrator reminds the audience that Gov. John Hickenlooper chose her to be his lieutenant governor and Colorado's first chief operating officer, and adds that he said Lynne would be a great governor. The spot also argues Lynne has the experience needed to provide health care and affordable housing to working families.
● FL-Gov: GOP firm Cherry Communications has released the gubernatorial portion of its recent poll for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is supporting state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The survey finds Putnam leading by 32-15 against Rep. Ron DeSantis, but with 48 percent undecided and more than two months to go until the Aug. 28 primary, this poll is yet another in a long line that show Florida Republicans are still far away from making up their minds.
Meanwhile, Putnam's latest ad features Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd attesting to Putnam's tough-on-crime bona fides. Judd promises that Putnam will make sure the government deports "illegal immigrants who commit crimes."
● GA-Gov: Changing Georgia's Future, which is supporting Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in next month's GOP primary runoff, has launched a new ad opposing Secretary of State Brian Kemp. The narrator calls him "inept" over how his office exposed sensitive personal records for millions of registered voters, and they castigate him as "insincere" over his company's failure to pay farmers for $2.5 million in crops. They attack Kemp as "untrustworthy" for supposedly wanting to "ban firearm sales in a state of emergency," and the spot closes by calling him "incompetent."
● LA-Gov: While House Majority Whip Steve Scalise notably refused to rule out a 2019 bid against Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards back in January, he gave a point blank "no" on Tuesday when he was asked if there was any chance he'd run.
● MD-Gov: Gonzales Research has returned to survey the landscape in Maryland's gubernatorial election ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary. They find Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker in first in the primary with 25 percent, followed by former NAACP president Ben Jealous at 23 and state Sen. Richard Madaleno at 9 percent.
Gonzales hasn't released a poll here since the sudden death of Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz last month, but their last survey from January had Baker ahead with 24 percent while Kamenetz and Jealous tied for 14 percent. Two other groups released polls this month showing a tight race between Baker and Jealous, while everyone else was far behind.
In hypothetical general election matchups, Gonzales's latest poll gives Republican Gov. Larry Hogan a 48-37 lead over Baker and a 52-34 edge over Jealous. That's not too different from their results from January, where Hogan beat Baker by 47-37 and Jealous by 49-36.
Meanwhile, a PAC called Maryland Together We Rise is spending about $400,000 on TV ads over the final two weeks in support of Jealous, while a coalition of unions and progressive groups is dishing out $500,000 to help his campaign get out the vote. The PAC's ad consists of a young woman of color praising Jealous for fighting for a better future for young people, including his plans to improve public education.
● MI-Gov: Supporters of former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer are finally going on the air ahead of the Aug. 7 Democratic primary, with a group called Build a Better Michigan spending $1.8 million to debut TV ads over the next five weeks.
Unusually, their spot is an "issue" ad that looks almost just like an ad from Whitmer's campaign herself, except that it doesn't explicitly tell viewers to vote for her. The ad instead spotlights Whitmer talking to the camera and narrating to recount how she "fought for working families" in the state Senate by supporting a higher minimum wage and expanded Medicaid. She calls for investment in skills training and a repeal of the "retirement tax."
● MN-Gov: One week after launching her surprise campaign, Attorney General Lori Swanson is up with her first TV spot for the August Democratic primary.
The ad features positive headlines flashing by about Swanson and her running mate, Rep. Rick Nolan. There's plenty of dramatic music, but apart from the narrator introducing and concluding the spot, the commercial just features a lot of text zooming by. There also isn't really much of a theme to the headlines, either: While some praise Swanson for her work combating the opioid crisis and for standing up to the Trump administration, others praise Nolan as a coalition builder. There is no word on the size of the buy.
House
● MI-06: Former Kellogg lobbyist George Franklin is out with the first ad of the August Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Fred Upton. Franklin recounts how his wife suddenly died from cancer and declares, "Nobody needs to tell my family how important health insurance is." The narrator then says Franklin advocated for more cancer research and Planned Parenthood's health services, and the candidate pledges to stand up to Trump "to make sure Michigan families have the health care they deserve."
● NE-02: EMILY's List endorsed Democrat Kara Eastman on Tuesday, a move that comes a little less than a month after her surprise primary win over former Rep. Brad Ashford.
● NY-01: Former Suffolk County Legislator Kate Browning is out with her first TV spot two weeks ahead of the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. The narrator declares that Browning is the only candidate with the experience to actually stand up to Trump. The ad continues by saying that Browning "stood up to Republican extremists to fund women's health centers, protect our clear water, and pass strong gun safety measures."
● NY-24: Syracuse University professor Dana Balter is up with a negative spot hitting former Syracuse corporation counsel Juanita Perez Williams on abortion two weeks ahead of the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. John Katko.
The screen shows a two-year-old Facebook post where Perez Williams says that abortion is a "choice that leaves many with years of suffering," and "I mention this because there is nothing in my pro life advocacy that even suggests judging or condemnation. I hate that crap!" The narrator highlights Perez Williams' use of the term "pro life advocacy," and recounts how in 2016 she "marched in an anti-abortion rally." The rest of the spot promotes Balter as a solid pro-choice progressive who has the support of "every local Democratic committee."
Back in April, the Intercept published these private Facebook posts by Perez Williams where she touted her "pro-life advocacy" and specifically mentioned participating in the 2016 "March for Life," a major annual anti-abortion rally whose stated goal is overturning Roe v. Wade. Perez Williams soon put out a statement in response to the story declaring she "believe[s] 100% in women's right to choose and will always defend and protect that right," even though her "personal opinions" on abortion might run in a different direction.
● OH-12: Democrat Danny O'Connor has launched his first TV ads ahead of the Aug. 7 special election for Ohio's vacant 12th District, days after the first Republican attack ads linking him to Nancy Pelosi started showing up.
O'Connor narrates his spot himself and starts by invoking his small-town roots before saying that he thinks a lot of the people in his area "have been forgotten." He then says he thinks "we need a change in leadership on both sides of the aisle" and specifically calls out Paul Ryan for "not doing anything for working families." He doesn't mention Pelosi by name, but a pull-quote from a Politico piece appears on-screen saying, "O'Connor 'won't support Pelosi.'" This is the same tactic Conor Lamb used in his special election upset in Pennsylvania earlier this year.
● WA-08: Employment attorney Jason Rittereiser, a Democrat, has unveiled his latest ad ahead of the Aug. 7 top-two primary. His minute-long spot comes off as well-polished and highlights his working-class roots growing up east of the Cascades. Rittereiser says, "The Cascade Mountains may separate us, but our politics have been dividing us for far too long." He promises to bridge that divide by "connect[ing] with people everywhere" in his fight to close the income gap, end the pay equity gap, and fix our healthcare system.
