When I set out for this project, I promised to do “competitive chambers”, as in, ones that could flip. And while the Pennsylvania House has a chance of flipping, the Senate doesn’t really. Over a two year period, it absolutely could. But given the 34-16 hole Democrats are in and that only 25 seats are up in 2018, flipping the chamber is perhaps a bridge too far to cross. Still, it’s an interesting chamber with a chance of a significant change that could make things very interesting in 2020, so I decided to do it anyway. Of the 25 seats that are up, 19 are held by Republicans, giving Democrats a chance to make a big shift. This is especially because they are in such a large hole despite Pennsylvania being a very evenly divided swing state, meaning there are lots of Republicans in Democratic-leaning districts that could be ousted. So, let’s look at the ratings table and then jump in:
Pennsylvania Senate Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
10 (R) |
6 (R) |
24 (R) |
34 (R) |
|
12 (R) |
16 (R) |
|
|
|
26 (R) |
40 (R) |
|
|
|
38 (R) |
44 (R) |
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Lean D: 10, 12, 26, 38
10th District: Open (McIlhinney)
This is an open seat in Bucks County in suburban Philadelphia. Its PVI is R+1, shifting towards Hillary Clinton in 2016, as she won it by 4 points over Donald Trump. This gives it a lean towards the Democrats and they have the better candidate in the race: former State Rep. Steve Santarsiero, who you may remember for seeking Congress in 2016, coming up short against Brian Fitzpatrick. This district is entirely nested within the one Santarsiero ran in in 2016, so he has very high name recognition. Republicans don’t have a bad candidate here in State Rep. Marguerite Quinn, it’s just that the district fundamentals favor Dems and Santarsiero has a bigger name and a 2-to-1 money edge. This is a probable Dem pickup.
12th District: Open (Greenleaf)
Republican incumbent Stewart Greenleaf is vacating this seat in suburban Philadelphia (Bucks/Montgomery County area) that voted for HRC by 5 points and backed Obama in 2012. That is going to make it very hard for Republicans to keep, even though Stewart Greenleaf Jr., the incumbent’s son, is in the race. He’ll have the family name but will have national winds strongly blowing against him. He’s facing Dem nominee Maria Collett, an attorney and nurse. Greenleaf Jr. currently leads in the money chase but it’s still early. An open seat in an HRC district is basically an automatic Lean D and I see no reason to deviate from that here.
26th District: Thomas McGarrigle
It’s not often I put a seat with an incumbent in Lean D, but this is one of the scenarios. SD-26 is in the very Democratic Philadelphia suburb of Delaware County and it voted for Clinton by 16 points in 2016. McGarrigle won the seat in 2014 by eking out a narrow 52-48 win with help from the very-Republican national environment. He’s not a bad incumbent, with a lot of money in the bank, but the basic fact is that it is going to be very, very hard to win a D+6 PVI seat in 2018. And at this time he’s a clear underdog against Timothy Kearney, the Mayor of Swarthmore, which is why I rate it Lean D.
38th District: Open (Vulakovich)
Located in suburban Pittsburgh, SD-38 shifted to the Democrats in 2016 and HRC won it narrowly. Being an open seat, that favors Team Blue in 2018. Both sides had contested primaries, with the GOP side being termed as nasty, having businessman Jeremy Shaffer emerging. The Democrats had union advocate Lindsey Williams win the nomination. Both candidates spent a lot of money to win their respective primaries, so it’s tough to get a sense of fundraising, but PA Democrats are confident here and the fundamentals land it Lean D for the fourth probable pickup.
Tossup: 6, 16, 40, 44
6th District: Robert Tomlinson
If you’ve sensed a theme, the suburbs play a big role in terms of finding Democratic opportunities, and we’re back to the Philly suburbs in Bucks County. SD-6 has a D+2 PVI and it backed both Clinton and Obama, seriously endangering longtime incumbent Robert Tomlinson. Tomlinson coasted to a 60-40 re-election in 2014, but that was an R+7 environment, and this could be a D+7 or worse environment. That alone should make it a tight race and Democrats have gone all out to win the seat, getting State Rep. Tina Davis. Davis currently has $140K in the bank, while Tomlinson has just $60K, which has to be terrifying to the PA GOP. If I had to assign a favorite, it might be Davis by a tiny bit, but it should be close. Tomlinson won’t go down without a fight, but this district is slipping away from him in a hurry.
16th District: Pat Browne
Located in the Lehigh Valley, we find another strong incumbent defending a D+2 PVI seat, this time in Pat Browne. Browne has represented this area since 2005 when he won a special election to succeed the now retiring US Rep. Charlie Dent, and he’s built a huge war chest. Like Tomlinson, he had an easy re-election in 2014 (62-38), but again, the environment was a whole lot better for R’s back then. 2018 will be a totally different beast and he’s facing Whitehall Township Comissioner and entrepreneur Mark Pinsley. This race probably has Browne slightly favored rather than the other way like in the 6th, though Browne did get a DUI since the last time he was on the ballot, so that could be an issue. Any way you slice it, Browne can’t bank on incumbency again, not in this district and in this environment, warranting the tossup rating.
40th District: Mario Scavello
In nearby Northampton and Monroe counties, SD-40 has an R+5 PVI and is represented by Freshman Senator Mario Scavello (terrific Italian name). Scavello won the seat in 2014 by 20 points, a comfortable win in an open seat. But his freshman nature means he doesn’t have a huge war chest of the stature of other incumbents and he’s attracted a legitimate challenger in Tarah Probst, Mayor of Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania. She has a ways to go to close the money gap after spending heavily on the primary, but this is a race to watch. It’s a Trump by 12 seat, but also one Obama nearly won, which puts it on the board.
44th District: John Rafferty
In the outer Philadelphia region near Chester, Pennsylvania is SD-44. With an R+3 PVI, it was won by Clinton by 0.3 and Romney by 4. Rafferty has served since 2003 when he succeeded impossible-to-beat-US-Rep. Jim Gerlach when the latter vacated the seat to run for Congress. He has a lot of money and will be another tough incumbent to oust but it’s another case of district winds blowing against him. He’s running against Kinesiology professor and local activist Katie Muth, who is running a legitimate campaign and should be more than enough to make this a tight race. Rafferty also had an easy 2014 election but again, this is 2018. And for that reason, this is a tossup race.
Lean R: 24
24th District: Bob Mensch
We stay in the outer Philadelphia Region in SD-24 which includes Berks, Bucks, and Montgomery County. The incumbent Mensch has served since he won a special election in 2009 and was easily re-elected in 2014. It’s a district that backed Trump by 8 and Romney by 5, giving it an R+5 PVI and making it not a top tier pickup opportunity. Union activist Linda Fields has won the Democratic nomination and she seems good enough to make things interesting but the district lean gives Mensch the clear upper hand here.
Likely R: 34
34th District: Jake Corman
Corman is the GOP Leader in the Senate, and thus the Majority Leader in the chamber, having served since the 90s, when his father retired from the seat. Located in the center of Pennsylvania and including State College, this seat has a R+9 PVI, which means it should be a very simple hold for Corman. Still, this is 2018 and Democrats have an intriguing candidate in Ezra Nanes, who is running a real campaign. Again, this isn’t really competitive, but if Dems are closer here on Election Night, then they’re probably flipping 7 or 8 seats in the chamber.
The Path to a Democratic Majority
It is a bit of a stretch to see a Democratic majority coming out of this chamber. With only 16 seats entering the cycle, it requires flipping 9 seats and holding the governorship. While the latter is likely to happen, 9 flips requires winning the 4 you’re favored in, the 4 four tossups, and picking off either 24 or 34. That’s a bit hard to see right now.
The Bottom Line
As I mentioned above, getting a majority is unlikely, but a sweeping gain of 5-7 seats is pretty probable, and that would be a big boost for Democrats. This is definitely the more favorable map of the two, though 2020’s map will have 3-5 solid-good pickup opportunities. Thus, gaining 6-8 seats from this map would put PA Dems in a very good position to flip the chamber for the first time since the Republican Revolution of 1994 (yay Gerrymandering!) in 2020, again assuming Tom Wolf is re-elected Governor. So, the chamber rating is Likely R, but a D+6 result would be very good for Democrats in the long run.
Chamber Rating: Likely R
Estimate if election were held today: D+5 to D+8