The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-11: The nasty June 26 GOP primary between Rep. Dan Donovan and former Rep. Mike Grimm for New York's 11th Congressional District somehow got even nastier at a debate this week. Grimm, who spent seven months in prison on 2015 after pleading guilty to tax evasion charges and resigning from this Staten Island-based seat, leveled the astounding charge that Donovan had offered to seek a pardon for him from Donald Trump in exchange for Grimm sitting out the race.
Campaign Action
This would be an incredibly serious issue if true. Politico writes that, if Donovan had indeed offered to help Grimm so that he'd drop out, it would violate congressional ethics rules that prevent members from using their position for personal gain. However, Donovan very much insists this isn't what happened at all.
Donovan told Politico that he did raise the issue of a pardon for Grimm with Trump last summer, before Grimm entered the race, but he denied doing it for political reasons. Instead, Donovan said he had asked Trump about granting clemency to Grimm as a "favor" to former Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari, who was close to both men until he sided with Grimm in the primary.
Donovan says he only mentioned that Molinari, who has known Trump for decades, might reach out to him about "a pardon for somebody," but oddly, at the same time, Donovan claims he poormouthed Molinari as a "never-Trumper" to Trump himself. And Trump, who's been eager to pardon all manner of undeserving criminals, never did a thing for Grimm.
Both Donovan and Grimm agree that the two did meet in person some time before Grimm kicked off his primary bid. Donovan relayed to Politico that he told Grimm that he'd raised the matter with Trump and been told by a staffer that he should go through the Department of Justice. The incumbent says that right after he gave contact information for the Justice Department's pardon to Grimm, Grimm told him that "he wants to run against me."
Grimm, of course, described this encounter very differently on Monday, telling Donovan, "You hugged me, you kissed me," and added, "You even had a piece of paper and said, 'I spoke to [Trump's] staff." Donovan said in response that he passed along details about the pardon office and wasn't actually trying to help Grimm. Grimm countered by saying he'd "let everybody else decide" what Donovan was up to before adding, "Danny, you look like a fool right now."
The only poll we've seen here in months was a Siena survey giving Grimm a 47-37 lead, though most of that poll was conducted before Trump endorsed Donovan. Donovan and his allies also have a big financial edge over Grimm: Donovan outspent Grimm $591,000 to $297,000 from April 1 to June 6, and he had a hefty $537,000 to $109,000 cash-on-hand edge for the final weeks.
Meanwhile, a group called New Yorkers United For Excellent Health Care has also spent $248,000 on mail and digital ads in support of Donovan, while the Trump-aligned America First Action has announced they'll spend $166,000 for the incumbent on similar voter contact efforts. In any event, we'll see who's the real fool soon enough.
Senate
● FL-Sen: AFSCME is out with a TV spot for $953,000 praising Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson as "one of America's independent senators," who has protected Medicare and Social Security and "brought home good jobs in renewables and aerospace."
● IN-Sen: The Senate Leadership Fund is spending a reported $1 million on a new TV, digital, and radio campaign targeting Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. The group's TV spot accuses Donnelly of making a profit of "up to $80,000" after his family's arts and crafts business reportedly outsourced jobs to Mexico and claims that a "past safety inspection" of the firm "found serious violations." The narrator also twice refers to the senator as "Mexico Joe," with the epithet displayed in the colors of the Mexican flag.
Donnelly has long maintained, going back to his first successful bid for Congress in 2006, that he hasn't had an active role in the family business since 1997. Last year, he sold his stock in the company for $17,000 following the AP report that SLF's ad cites and announced he was donating the proceeds to several Indiana charities. As for the alleged safety violations, a fact-check provided by the Donnelly campaign, which links to a search of an OSHA database, notes that there's no record of any such offenses.
● MO-Sen: The conservative One Nation, a nonprofit that is close to the GOP establishment, recently began a new reported $600,000 ad campaign for Republican John Hawley, and we now have a copy of the spot. The narrator argues that the attorney general is combating the opioid crisis as attorney general and implores the audience to urge him to "keep up the fight."
● TX-Sen: End Citizens United, which is supporting Democrat Beto O'Rourke, is out with a poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a 49-43 lead. The results aren't much different from a recent survey from the Democratic firm PPP for Gabby Giffords' group that found Cruz ahead 48-42.
Gubernatorial
● ME-Gov: Wealthy independent Alan Caron is starting what the National Journal reports is a $250,000 media buy.
Caron's spot argues that he'll be different from the two parties, and promotes his humble origins in a Waterville family of millworkers and farmers. The narrator notes that he "made his share of mistakes as a teenager, and even spent some months in a correctional center," before turning his life along and becoming a successful businessman. The candidate then pledges to be "a champion for working people, small businesses, and rural Maine," and he calls for offering two years of free higher education to anyone who will stay and work in the state.
● MI-Gov: GOP Attorney General Bill Schuette is up with a TV spot praising Trump's tax bill and declaring he'll follow his example. The ad ends with a clip of Trump declaring, "The next governor of Michigan, Bill Schuette," with the narrator reminding the audience that Trump endorsed him.
● MN-Gov: Campaign finance reports are out covering the first five months of 2018. On the GOP side, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty outraised Hennepin County Commissioner and 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson $1.7 million to $169,000 during this period, and he had a hefty $1.3 million to $186,000 cash-on-hand lead.
For the Democrats, Rep. Tim Walz outraised state Rep. Erin Murphy $888,000 to $259,000, and he had a $685,000 to $85,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of May. Murphy won endorsements from state party, EMILY's List, and Gov. Mark Dayton days after the reporting deadline, and we'll see if those helped her bring in more cash. Attorney General Lori Swanson entered the race in early June, so her fundraising was not included in this group of reports.
House
● OH-10: EMILY's List has endorsed Democrat Theresa Gasper's campaign against longtime GOP Rep. Mike Turner in this 51-44 Trump seat in the Dayton area.
● VA-05: On Friday, the Club for Growth endorsed GOP nominee Denver Riggleman in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Garrett.
● DCCC: On Friday, the DCCC added another 10 candidates to its Red to Blue program. Red to Blue is meant to highlight the candidates the committee thinks are the strongest in key House races in large part to encourage donors and other liberal organizations to support them. Below are the candidates, each seat's 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers included. You can find the full Red to Blue list here.
CA-10: Josh Harder (49-46 Clinton, 51-47 Obama)
CA-25: Katie Hill (50-44 Clinton, 50-48 Romney)
CA-45: Katie Porter (50-44 Clinton, 55-43 Romney)
CA-49: Mike Levin (51-43 Clinton, 52-46 Romney)
IA-03: Cindy Axne (49-45 Trump, 51-47 Obama)
PA-01: Scott Wallace (49-47 Clinton, 50-49 Obama)
PA-07: Susan Wild (49-48 Clinton, 53-46 Obama)
VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (51-44 Trump, 55-44 Romney)
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (52-42 Clinton, 50-49 Romney)
WI-06: Dan Kohl (56-39 Trump, 53-46 Romney)
All of these candidates have won their primaries except Dan Kohl, who faces no opposition in August.
One notable omission for the moment at least is Kara Eastman in Nebraska's 2nd District, who won her primary the same day that Wallace and Wild did last month. Eastman defeated former Rep. Brad Ashford, who was on Red to Blue.
Other Races
● Attorneys General: Races for state attorneys general don't get nearly as much attention and money as gubernatorial and Senate races, but they're important and expensive contests nonetheless. Politico reports that the Republican Attorneys General Association has reserved a total of $4.7 million in TV time for three states.
RAGA has invested $1.9 million in Arizona, where GOP incumbent Mark Brnovich will face former state prosecutor and former Obama administration official January Contreras, who has no Democratic primary opponent. They've also reserved $1.4 million each for open seat races in Nevada and Ohio. Team Red's nominee in Nevada is Wes Duncan, a former top aide to outgoing attorney general and gubernatorial nominee Adam Laxalt; Duncan faces state Senate Democratic Leader Aaron Ford. In Ohio, GOP state Auditor Dave Yost is competing with with former U.S. Attorney Steven Dettelbach in the general election.
