An uncertain future for lightning
The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world. A new scheme finds the opposite result, directly challenging the predictive skill of an old stalwart.
MORE:nature.com/...
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NASA MAP SHOWS WHERE LIGHTNING STRIKES MOST AROUND THE WORLD
OceanDiver's lightning map :
.lightningmaps.org/…
Lightning is a sudden electrostatic discharge that occurs typically during a thunderstorm. This discharge occurs between electrically charged regions of a cloud (called intra-cloud lightning or IC), between two clouds (CC lightning), or between a cloud and the ground (CG lightning).
The charged regions in the atmosphere temporarily equalize themselves through this discharge referred to as a flash. A lightning flash can also be a strike if it involves an object on the ground. Lightning creates light in the form of black body radiation from the very hot plasma created by the electron flow, and sound in the form of thunder. Lightning may be seen and not heard when it occurs at a distance too great for the sound to carry as far as the light from the strike or flash.en.wikipedia.org/...
Lightning is an important part of the nitrogen cycle, which includes atmospheric fixation, biological fixation, and industrial fixation.
The enormous energy of lightning breaks nitrogen molecules and enables their atoms to combine with oxygen in the air forming nitrogen oxides. These dissolve in rain, forming nitrates, that are carried to the earth.
Atmospheric nitrogen fixation probably contributes some 5– 8% of the total nitrogen fixed.
(Contributed by DrArcadia)
Lightning Strikes Map
weather.com/...
By Ocean Diver:
(5-8% is a lot of nitrates added to the soil)
But there’s more and increasing anthropogenic nitrogen fixation going on now, mainly for agriculture. There are already significant environmental consequences.
A projected decrease in lightning under climate change
12 February 2018
Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1,2,3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5,6,7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition...nature.com/...
Lightning storms less likely in a warming planet,
study suggests
February 12, 2018, University of Edinburgh
Lightning may strike less often in future across the globe as the planet warms, a scientific study suggests.
The research forecasts a 15 per cent drop in the average number of lightning flashes worldwide by the turn of this century, if global temperatures are in the top range of forecasts.
A drop in the incidence of lightning strikes could impact on the frequency of wildfires, especially in tropical regions.
It could also lower the incidence of lightning strikes to infrastructure and affect how greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contribute to climate change.
Scientists from the Universities of Edinburgh and Leeds and Lancaster University used a newly devised method to calculate the likely incidence of lightning flashes from storm clouds.
Unlike traditional calculations of lightning flashes at the global scale, which are based on the height of clouds, their approach takes into account the movement of tiny ice particles that form and move within clouds. Electrical charges build up in these ice particles, and in cold water droplets and soft hail formed inside clouds. These are discharged during storms, giving rise to lightning flashes and thunder. Scientists estimate there are 1.4 billion lightning flashes each year around the world.www.sciencedaily.com/..
Global warming may lead to a drop in lightning strikes, affecting atmospheric composition and the frequency of natural forest fires in the tropics, a new study suggests.
Using a newly-devised method, scientists including Dr Declan Finney and Professor Alan Blyth from the University of Leeds, have forecast a 15 per cent drop in the average number of lightning flashes worldwide by the year 2100, if global temperatures continue on their predicted upward trend.
Study lead author Dr Finney, from the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Scienceat Leeds, carried out this research while based at the University of Edinburgh. He said: “Our method looked closely at the impact of climate change on the fundamental components that lead to lightning.
MORE:
.leeds.ac.uk/...
Up to 20,000 bolts of lightning hit Britain, leaving hundreds of homes without power
LINKS
www.nssl.noaa.gov/...
montanusphotography.com/…
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