In 2016, Democrats flipped New Mexico’s State House to take a 38-32 majority, alongside the State Senate where they increased their majority to 26-16. The State Senate is up in presidential years, so the State House is the only chamber up for grabs in 2018. If Democrats can defend their majority and flip the Governorship, which they’re favored to do, they can complete the trifecta in the Land of Enchantment. So let’s get into the ratings table:
New Mexico House Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
23 (D) |
15 (R) |
28 (R) |
4 (R) |
|
24 (D) |
30 (R) |
29 (R) |
22 (R) |
|
32 (D) |
|
53 (R) |
68 (R) |
|
39 (D) |
|
57 (R) |
|
|
Likely D: 23, 24, 32, 39
23rd District: Damon Ely
This was the New Mexico Democratic Party’s closest flip in this chamber in 2016, when Ely toppled a Republican incumbent by less than a point for this seat in the outer Albuquerque area. In 2018, Ely will be looking to defend his seat for another term against retired Air Traffic Controller Brenda Boatman. Boatman seems to at least have a solid campaign with nearly $20,000 in the bank, but Ely has $77,000 and is in a D+2 seat, meaning that he’s a very heavy favorite entering the fall.
24th District: Elizabeth L. Thompson
Another Albuquerque flip in 2016 was here in HD-24, when Elizabeth Thompson won an open seat over a Republican by a narrow 52-48 margin. In 2018, she will set out to defend this D+4 seat, where she will have partisanship and the national environment on her side facing Air Force veteran Trey Morris, who she currently has over $60,000 more than, which once again makes her a heavy favorite.
32nd District: Candice Sweetser
HD-32 was also an open seat in 2016, but one Democrats were defending. An R+2 PVI seat in the southwestern portion of the state, Sweetser was able to hold it by a 51-49 margin and in 2018, she’ll get to face Laura Boyd, a doctor. As is a theme in these Democratic defense seats, Sweetser has a huge financial edge over Boyd, which makes her another considerable favorite.
39th District: Rodolpho Martinez
The last competitive seat Dems are defending can be found adjacent to HD-32, stretching from Bayard, NM, to the outer Las Cruces area. Rodolpho Martinez snared this seat in 2016 by knocking off an incumbent Republican by a close 51-49 margin. With a D+3 PVI, he is a heavy favorite to win re-election facing Lee Cotter, a former State Senator. That fact means he has some name recognition, but Cotter is only running here because he lost re-election in 2016 (pretty decisively, too), which tempers Republican expectations. This will be a hard seat for the GOP to flip, so Likely D is appropriate.
Lean D: 15, 30
15th District: Open (Barnes)
Here’s the first favored Democratic pickup, also coming in the Albuquerque area, to the north of the downtown area. It’s an open D+2 seat, which provides Democrats with a great opportunity to flip a seat and they have lawyer Dayan Hochman-Vigil in the race. She’s running a very credible campaign but will be facing a pretty strong foe, former Secretary of State Brad Winter. That said, she has more money in the bank and with the national environment and district partisanship on her side, she is the favorite entering November.
30th District: Open (Gentry)
Another open seat that we think Dems will pick up is HD-30, a D+3 seat in the northeast Albuquerque area. Team Blue has recruited local high school Spanish teacher Natalie Figueroa to run against retired Navy Commander John Jones. Figueroa has $31,000 in the bank at this point, compared to Jones’s $21,000, a sign that both are running fine campaigns but that Figueroa has the edge in that regard. Additionally, the fact this is a blue district in a pro-D midterm means that we rate it Lean D for the second pickup.
Tossup: 28, 29, 53, 57, 68
28th District: Jimmie Hall
Our first tossup comes out in eastern Albuquerque where incumbent Republican Jimmie Hall finds himself in some trouble. While he was unopposed in 2016 in this R+4 seat, he has drawn a challenge from community development leader Melanie Stansbury, who has $15,000 more in the bank than Hall does at this time. We still consider Hall a favorite but he has his work cut out for him this fall.
29th District: David Adkins
Here we have the most endangered incumbent in the New Mexico House: David Adkins. He’s represented HD-29 on the outskirts of Albuquerque since 2015, and he only barely survived 2016, defeating his Democratic foe by just 9 votes (!!!). Now he gets to face Joy Garratt, who ran for SD-23 in 2016 and lost by a small margin. She has the name recognition and the money to topple David Adkins and the incumbent Republican is in for another brutal fight in November.
53rd District: Ricky Little
Little is the second most endangered incumbent in the New Mexico House, and he was also a top target of Dems in 2016. He was able to fend off Willie Madrid by just 2% two Novembers ago and he will have to do it again, as Madrid is back for a rematch, hoping a better environment carries him over the top. HD-53 has an EVEN PVI and we figure it will be another close race, though Madrid may have the upper hand this time around.
57th District: Jason Harper
The next Democratic target is an R+5 seat, meaning it’s not at the top of the list, but Jason Harper won by just 10 points in 2016, so with a better national environment, Democrats could be able to knock off the incumbent. They have recruited local mom Billie Helean to take on Harper, though she will have to raise money at a quicker pace than she currently is if she wants to beat Harper. Right now, the Republican has the edge, but not enough of one to move this out of tossup.
Lean R: 4, 22, 68
4th District: Sharon E. Clahchischilliage
HD-4 is in the upper northwest corner of the state including where New Mexico’s part of the four corners is. The incumbent is Sharon E. Clahchischilliage, who has quite the last name, and she’s represented this district since 2012. She had comfortable wins in 2012 and 2014, but then was pushed to a close win (8 points) in 2016. She will be facing Democrat Anthony Allison, who has some money in the bank, but it’s unclear who he is or what he does, and since the incumbent has a COH advantage, we’re going to make her the favorite for the fall, hence the Lean R rating.
22nd District: Open (Smith)
This seat is on the absolute edge of the Albuquerque area, stretching from Budaghers in the north to Yrisarri in the south, taking in Cedar Crest along the way. With an R+5 PVI, it’s not an immediately obvious pickup opportunity, but it is one to note given the open seat. Democrats have teacher Jessica Velasquez, while the GOP has Gregg Schmedes, an assistant professor of surgery at the University of New Mexico. Velasquez has significantly more money, but this is a Trump/Romney seat, so I’m not quite ready to call it a tossup.
68th District: Monica Youngblood
One of the stronger GOP incumbents in the NM House is Monica Youngblood, who won this seat by a decent margin in 2012 and has never been challenged since. In 2018, Democrats are putting up local faith leader Karen Bash, who is running a credible campaign, but Youngblood has a significant money edge and in an R+2 seat, has district partisanship on her side. It will be tricky to dislodge Youngblood, but it’s possible, so we rate it Lean R.
The Path to a Republican Majority
The GOP enter 2018 in a difficult 38-32 hole, meaning they need a net gain of 4 for a majority. In order to do this, they have to protect their open seats which I consider leaning towards the Democrats, already a hard task, and then try to beat the incumbent Dems in the Likely D column. They couldn’t beat those candidates in 2016, and with 2018 figuring to be a much better Dem year, it’s very hard to see a scenario where any of them get beat, let alone all 4 of them, on top of the GOP defending two difficult Lean D seats. There’s a more credible path than there was in say, the Nevada Senate, but it’s still very unlikely.
The Bottom Line
As I just mentioned, I see the chance of a Republican majority as extremely unlikely, so the chamber rating is Likely Democratic. Furthermore, it is significantly more probably that Democrats will expand their majority in the chamber. Thus, it seems like the GOP will have to wait at least until 2020 to try and regain control of the NM House.
Chamber Rating: Likely D
Estimate if election were held today: D+2 to D+6