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Right now there are effectively 99 members of the Senate and thus just 50 Republicans with Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) return uncertain and increasingly unlikely. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and pr*sident Donald Trump need 51 votes to make Brett Kavanaugh an associate justice on the Supreme Court. One of them can come from vice pr*sident Mike Pence. As of now, noises from Democrats like Joe Manchin (WV) suggest that Democrats might hold together in opposition, though it's early days.
What's definitely not in question is that two Republicans—Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)—are essential for McConnell and Trump to prevail on this, and that they are pretty much all that's standing between women's access to abortion and a Supreme Court that will restrict it. Since these two are the last standing "pro-choice" elected Republicans on the planet they have some decisions to make, and how their own states would fare if Roe v. Wade falls is undoubtedly shaping their decisions.
Maine is among the states that NARAL Pro-Choice America rates as having protected access to abortion, with state laws that protect reproductive rights should the national law fail. But those rights are hanging on by a thread as Maine Women's Lobby executive director Eliza Townsend pointed out to Think Progress. "Maine does have a law that codifies abortion in statute but that's a law. Laws can be changed. And as we saw in the case of the fetal personhood bill vote just within the last legislative—the last two years of the last legislative session—is that laws can be changed and margins are much more narrow than one might think."
Alaska's a somewhat mixed bag. The state constitution would protect abortion rights should Roe fall. But the legislature and the governor are at this point all anti-choice, though probably don't have the two-thirds necessary to amend the state's constitution to get rid of the protections. The bad news is that Alaska still has laws that can curtail access to abortion, like mandating counseling in which patients seeking abortions are given information designed to discourage them from going through with it. The state also restricts abortions to "a hospital, in a facility approved for that purpose by the state, or in a hospital operated by the federal government or one of its agencies," one of the results of which is that 37 percent of Alaska women live in counties with no abortion clinic.
So you could say that abortion rights are tenuous in both of the senators' home states, which might make them think a little harder about just how dangerous the Supreme Court could be. Because make no mistake, this nomination is all about abortion.
Now it's up to the people of Maine to call her on it. Directly. Every day. At her office numbers: (207) 622-8414, (207) 945-0417, (207) 283-1101, (207) 493-7873, (207) 784-6969, (207) 780-3575, (202) 224-2523
Do you live in Maine? You have a powerful voice in stopping Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Click here to write Sen. Collins.
Live in Alaska? You have the power. Sign and send a petition to Sen. Lisa Murkowski: Save Roe v. Wade. Oppose any anti-choice Supreme Court nominee.