Something is happening down in the Lone Star State.
Since last week, when U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-El Paso, revealed that he had raised a stunning $10.4 million between April and June in his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a wave of Texas Democrats running for U.S. House seats similarly blasted out their own unusually strong fundraising numbers.
The numbers only became more striking when compared to their rivals: Some Democratic challengers raised two, three or even four times what their Republican incumbent rivals posted.
House Republicans in usually safe seats are suddenly looking anemic. Perhaps treason isn’t the best campaign issue? And Beto … I didn’t want to believe Politico’s, “Beto-mania sweeps Texas.” But a look at our Civiqs Texas data (which we poll for our own use, not for any client), and holy shit, it’s real!
Yup. That’s the odious and treason-enabling Ted Cruz leading by just TWO POINTS.
For context, our numbers in the Texas governor’s race look more as you’d expect, with Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Andrew White 50-39 Lupe Valdez 51-41. So where is Cruz struggling?
There’s the typical 2018-style gender gap, with Cruz leading among men 54-41, and losing women 43-51. Cruz is winning white people 59-36, while losing Latinos 70-24, and black voters 79-14. O’Rourke is winning 18-34 voters 55-37, while losing the 65+ set 58-38. The future looks bright, but we can’t afford to wait for the future! A lot will be riding on O’Rourke’s ability to get out the young vote. Do-or-die, pretty much.
In the end, with both candidates solidifying the support of their base, everything will turn on O’Rourke’s ability to squeeze out the most votes from self-styled independents.
Those are pretty swingy trends, and they moved heavily in O’Rourke’s direction during the worst of the forced-family-separation nightmare situation on the border. That effect is already starting to fade, as you can see, but these are impressionable voters, very winnable.
This is still Texas. This is still a tough state.
But Hillary Clinton made it a single-digit contest in 2016, and thanks to Treasonous Trump and his Republican enablers, it’s very winnable this year.
Civiqs is a project of Kos Media. Get background info here. You can see more data here.
