The new Quinnipiac Poll has Trump’s approval rating at 38%, with 58% disapproving, a net minus of 20 percentage points. See poll.qu.edu/… The poll surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, and was taken between July 18 and yesterday, July 23. The minus 20 percentage points compares with minus 15 peercentage points in a Quinnipiac poll released July 3 and a minus nine (9) percentage points in the same poll ended June 20.
Quinnipiac is a highly respected poll, rated “A minus” by Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com. According to Silver, it has only a slight partisan lean, so 538 adjusts the 38-58% to 40-56%, still a catastrphic minus 16 for IQ45.
In this latest poll released today, Independents disapprove of Trump by 32-61%, an astonishing minus 29 percentage points. Democrats disapprove by 7-92%, or 85 percentage points, and Republicans approve by 82-15%, “only” a 67 percentage point margin.
As an excellent diary out today at www.dailykos.com/… points out, a great variable among pollsters may be estimating how many Republicans there still are — put differently, how many have left the fold. This may account for a wide differential from one good pollster’s result to another’s. If a pollster uses traditional (e.g., 2016) self-identification in his weighted sample, that pollster may be missing an erosion in the number of Republican voters who remain.
Quinnipiac’s latest poll’s gender gap is astonishing — women disapprove Trump by 31-64%, or 33 percentage points, while men disapprove him by 45-51%, or six percentage points. That’s a differential of 27 percentage points between the genders in net disapproval, but it is encouraging that men are at last polled as disapproving this most unstable, cruel, and irresponsible of presidents.
The enthusiasm gap is similarly encouraging. The most recent Quinnipiac poll has 28% strongly approving and 51% strongly disapproving.
In the 18 to 34 age bracket, Trump’s approval-disapproval is 31-68%, well over two-to-one disapproving. All conceivable efforts should be directed to getting eligible student voters out and voting.
It is well worth clicking on the link above and viewiing the internals, the issue-by-issue approval results. This may reflect the cumulative effect of the cruel immigrant-child-separation policy and Trump’s shameful and treasonous performance in Helsinki along side of his puppetmaster, Putin.
This is in my humble view a straw in the wind. Trump’s approval rating, while well above his low in the post-Comey-firing era, has slowly eroded in the past two months, and the Quinnipiac results may suggest a new, lower plateau going into the midterm election season.